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(Continued from the previous article)

Hardliners push for qualitative change in cooperation level

Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at the Carnegie Foundation's Nuclear Policy Project who has long tracked Iran-Russia relations, was not surprised by some of the groundless rumors and speculations earlier. She tracked all the information from all sources regarding Shoigu's arrival in Tehran on August 5, studying the implications and signals in the images.

As of August 10, Reuters quoted two European intelligence sources as saying that dozens of Russian military personnel were receiving training in Iran using the Fath-360 short-range missile.Ballistic Missilessystem, adding that they expected Iran to soon deliver hundreds of these satellite-guided weapons to Russia "for use in Russia's war against Ukraine."

Nicole Grajewski was quick to comment that if this is true, it is a big deal. It has implications for nuclear negotiations with Iran, especially in light of the warnings issued by the European Three (E3) regarding Iran's delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia.

Iran quickly denied the suggestion that it was supplying weapons to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that Iran and Russia have a long-standing strategic partnership in various fields, including military cooperation. "Nevertheless, from a moral point of view, Iran will not hand over any weapons, including missiles, that could be used in the conflict in Ukraine until the conflict is over," the statement said.

The Reuters report disclosed details of the Iran-Russia contract, saying that the missile launched by the Fateh-360 has a maximum range of 120 kilometers and a 150-kilogram warhead; the contract also involves another ballistic missile system called Ababil built by Iran's state-owned Aviation Industries Organization (AIO).

A senior Iranian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Iran sold missiles and drones to Russia but not the Fateh-360 missile. The source added that there was no law prohibiting Tehran from selling such weapons to Russia.

A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said that if Iran continues to make such deliveries, it would mean a "dramatic escalation" of Iran's support for the war between Russia and Ukraine.NATOAllies and G7 partners "stand ready to respond swiftly and severely."

Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), who has been tracking Iran issues for a long time, shared his views on the X platform on the 10th, saying that Russian and Iranian hardliners have always had a common goal, which is to stifle the prospects for improving relations between Iran and the West. "These reports (on arms deals) were released shortly after the new President Pezerhityan took office, which is very telling."

Nicole Grajewski also believes that, just like when Iran and Israel attacked each other's domestic facilities in April, Iranian media and some channels have been hyping up military cooperation with Russia in the past few days. Before the official footage of Shoigu's visit to Iran was released, all the pictures shared about Shoigu in Iran were of him wearing military uniforms, and they were all old photos. "He will be in casual clothes because he is no longer visiting as the Minister of Defense," she reminded on the X platform.

In May this year, Shoigu, 68, resigned from his post as Russia's defense minister after 12 years. He was appointed by Putin as secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council and deputy chairman of the Military-Industrial Complex Committee, continuing to be in charge of the Russian Federal Military-Technical Cooperation Agency.

"Patrushev (who served as Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council from 2008 to 2024 and former Director of the Russian Federal Security Service - Editor's Note) may not always meet (Iranian) military officials during his visits to Iran, but Shoigu and Bagheri have a very extensive record of working together," Nicole said. "Shoigu is in charge of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, which manages Russia's arms exports. After the recent reorganization of the Russian government, the agency was transferred from the Ministry of Defense to the direct control of the president."

In February this year, before Shoigu stepped down as defense minister, Reuters also quoted unnamed insiders as saying that Iran had provided Russia with about 400 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, including a large number of Fateh-110 series short-range tactical missiles, including the Zolfagar (mobile ballistic missile with a range of 300-700 kilometers). Both Iran and Russia refused to confirm this, and the US officials did not confirm it either.

"If the missile transfer is true, it will mark a qualitative change in the level of (military) cooperation between the two countries and a change in the Middle East situation, which may be the driving force behind Tehran's decision." In a report on Iran-Russia military cooperation assessment written for the US think tank Stimson Center in June, Avdalianni, a professor at the European University of Georgia and an expert on Middle East issues, analyzed that "For Russia, establishing a closer relationship with Iran is crucial to increasing pressure on the United States in the Middle East... Given the use of Iranian drones in Ukraine, Tehran and Moscow are closer to establishing a de facto united front against the United States from the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf."

He also mentioned that Tehran announced in November last year that it would receive Su-35 fighter jets and Mi-28 attack helicopters, but this has obviously not happened yet. If the news of Iran sending ballistic missiles to Russia is confirmed, it means that fighter jets, helicopters, and possibly even S-400 missile defense systems will soon be delivered to Tehran.

A timely help in "difficult times"

Military cooperation and arms trade have attracted almost all the attention. Shoigu said Iran is one of Russia's important strategic allies in the region, and the relationship between the two countries is developing in all areas. However, the development of other areas is often ignored, and there are doubts and oppositions from time to time within each country.

After former Iranian President Raisi and former Foreign Minister Abdollahyan were unfortunately killed in a helicopter crash in May this year, the development direction of Russia-Iran relations has attracted close attention from the outside world.

During the election, Pezeshitsyan made it clear that improving relations with the United States and the West was the key to solving domestic economic problems, and he publicly criticized the "turn to the East" strategy.

In early June, Russia and Iran had an embarrassing scene of contradictory statements on signing a new long-term cooperation agreement. A senior official of the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the negotiation process of the agreement was suspended due to "problems faced by Iran's partners." Later, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow quickly came out to say that "we are working hard to reach a long-term cooperation agreement by the end of 2024" and accused the Iranian media of "carelessly mistranslating and reporting false news." The signing of a 20-year comprehensive partnership agreement was the principle intention reached by Russian President Putin and then Iranian President Rahi in early 2022.

"After Raisi's death, the Kremlin immediately tried to suspend discussions on a long-term bilateral agreement, willing to wait and see the results of Iran's presidential election," Nikolay Kozhanov, professor of Gulf State Studies at Qatar University and an expert on Iran, said at the time.

"Russia wants to reach an agreement, but does not want to burden itself in terms of mutual defense clauses, nuclear cooperation obligations, etc." Georgian Middle East expert Avdalianni told The Paper, "Iran is more eager to sign a comprehensive large-scale agreement, mainly to show the West that it can rely on other countries and has other foreign policy options."

Kozhanov predicted in an analysis report for the Royal Institute of International Affairs in June that Iran-Russia relations will change direction. The new president faces two thorny issues after taking office - getting the economy out of the crisis and reducing the external pressure caused by international sanctions on the country - which are the driving force for the new president to revise Iran-Russia relations.

"Given the current foreign policy environment that is not conducive to Tehran's reconciliation with its opponents...although it is impossible for Russia-Iran relations to undergo a profound adjustment immediately, in the medium term, if the new president successfully initiates the process of lifting sanctions, the current (Iran-Russia) relations are likely to be eroded," he analyzed.

But senior observers of Iran’s internal power structure believe that when it comes to certain foreign policies, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the Supreme Leader, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), in terms of bureaucracy and institutional mechanisms, (collectively) set Iran’s foreign policy agenda.”

Avdaliani observed that the extent to which Iran's new president Pezhichyan and his allies can overcome the challenges posed by domestic conservative forces is "very unlikely." The prevailing vision in Iran is for a more intense confrontation with the West, but this does not mean that conservative forces are not pragmatic.

But then an unexpected incident occurred in Tehran. On July 31, the day after Pezerhiziyan was sworn in, Hamas leader Haniyeh, who was attending the ceremony, was assassinated in his residence. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, have made it clear that they will impose "severe punishment" on Israel.

"Russia is one of the countries that has supported the Iranian people in difficult times." On August 5, less than a week after taking office, Pezhichyan met with visiting Shoigu in Tehran and said: "Developing relations with strategic partner Russia is one of the priorities of Iran's foreign policy. It is necessary to speed up the implementation of various agreements reached between the two countries."

"We are ready to cooperate fully with Iran on regional issues," Shoigu said during a meeting with Iranian Armed Forces Chief of General Staff Bagheri, who told Shoigu that the relationship between the two countries is "deep, long-term and strategic" and will only expand under the new Iranian government.

In a report document provided by the Iranian government detailing the meeting between high-level political officials from Iran and Russia, the content that "Russian representatives stressed the need to accelerate the construction of the 'North-South' international transport corridor" was rarely mentioned by the outside world.

This is a 7,200-kilometer multimodal transportation network that stretches from the Baltic city of St. Petersburg through the Caspian Sea, Iran, and the Gulf waters to the Indian Ocean, which can shorten the time by up to 30 days compared to the traditional route through the Suez Canal. Iranian official media calculated that the transportation cost of transporting 15 tons of goods through the new waterway can be reduced by $2,500.

The project attracted international attention in May 2023, when the presidents of Russia and Iran attended via video link the signing ceremony of an agreement on the construction of the Rasht-Astara (in northwestern Iran) railway, the final section of the corridor, for a total of $1.6 billion.

"Behind the development of the North-South Transport Corridor is the change in the international situation. Russia has been sanctioned by Europe and the United States due to the Russo-Ukrainian War and has been forced to shift its export destinations to Asia and the Middle East. Iran, which is also under Western sanctions, is also moving closer to Russia and other Asian countries." In March this year, Reference News quoted the Nihon Keizai Shimbun to analyze in detail the strategic significance of this project.

However, the route has been delayed due to international sanctions imposed on Iran, a hub of the route, for many years. International analysts have previously pointed out the international resistance to the project's real economic benefits - countries that impose sanctions on Iran and Russia will try to prevent the new corridor from becoming a major route for global trade, especially in the Gulf waters.

Under severe international sanctions, Moscow and Tehran seem to be striving to form a closer economic alliance. At the end of 2023, Iran announced an agreement with Russia to eliminate dollar settlements in bilateral trade. The two countries hope that this long-awaited agreement will help their respective troubled economies and ease the impact of Western economic sanctions. The governor of the Central Bank of Iran called this development a "new chapter". However, some economists believe that this move is more symbolic than a real economic act.

Currently, trade between Tehran and Moscow stands at $4 billion, a figure that even Iranian officials admit is far short of the $40 billion target.

"Iran also has its own 'game' rules. Tehran understands that Russia needs it, and the Islamic Republic is unlikely to get itself bogged down in the Middle East quagmire for Russia's benefit. A direct war with the United States or Israel is not in Iran's plans," Afdaliani wrote. He told The Paper, "I believe Iran and the West will work to reach some kind of nuclear agreement, such as a limited agreement, to help Iran out of its economic difficulties."

Iran and Russia deepened their military and defense cooperation after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022. But Iranian military officials have insisted that the military partnership between the two countries "shows the world Iran's defense capabilities and does not mean standing on the side of Russia in the Ukrainian conflict."