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Hello, friends.

Today I will sort out two clues for you.

First, on the morning of August 13th, Beijing time, which was the evening of August 12th, Eastern Time, Musk and Trump had a live conversation on the X platform (formerly the Twitter platform), revealing a lot of important information.

Second, the Ukrainian army is still fighting deep inside Russia. Have Ukraine's strategic goals changed? What weaknesses does this reflect in Russia?

01

Long story short, let’s talk about the first clue.

On the evening of the 12th, Eastern Time, the world's richest man Musk had a live conversation with Trump on the X platform where he is the boss, attracting many people to watch.

This conversation reflects two backgrounds:

First, Trump returned to Twitter after many years.

As we all know, in the late period of Trump's presidency, Twitter had not yet been acquired by Musk. At that time, Twitter banned Trump from using the platform on the grounds of defending freedom of speech.

At that time, Trump could be called the "Twitter King", and his "Twitter diplomacy" and "Twitter governance" are still fresh in people's memory. Not only did he post many offensive remarks on Twitter, he also announced some important national policies through Twitter.

These actions sparked controversy, leading Twitter to ban his account. Although Trump cursed at this, he could do nothing about it.

Now that Trump has left office, he is coming back for the second time. In the process, Musk's career has been constantly developing and transforming. One of the important measures is that he acquired Twitter and renamed it X.

Musk has made many changes at Company X, and although his approach has been somewhat radical, he also has an aggressive side as an entrepreneur.

Second, Musk's attitude has changed.

As we all know, Musk's political attitude was relatively neutral before 2022. For example, in 2014, when Obama was in power, Musk made political donations to both the Democratic and Republican parties, and did not stand very clearly between the two parties.

This has earned him a lot of favor in Washington, so some of Musk's businesses, such as the Starlink project, have entered the Pentagon in Washington and become part of the national plan. Now, Musk has a great technical influence within the US military intelligence agencies.

Of course, this mainly happened during the Obama era, including the later Trump era. So when did Musk's political philosophy change?

It should be two years ago, after the 2022 US congressional election, when Musk's attitude could be said to have taken a 180-degree turn.

Based on what we know from public sources, he believes that the Democratic Party is not only incompetent, but also restricts free speech.

What’s interesting is that Twitter’s leadership restricted Trump’s freedom of speech back then, but now Musk says that the Democrats are restricting freedom of speech and damaging democracy - these are the words that the Democrats used to accuse Trump.

Musk also believes that if the Democrats continue to govern, people must fight against them to defend the future of civilization.

This means that if this situation continues, the future of human civilization will be affected and destroyed, so people must fight for the future of civilization.

Since then, Musk has turned 180 degrees to the Republican Party, especially supporting Trump. It can be seen that Musk has been supporting Trump since the middle of this year.

It can be said that so far, when Trump's election situation is declining, Musk's support is an important shot in the arm.

The live broadcast also showed their mutual respect. Whether on the refugee issue, economic issues or electric vehicles, the two sides had similar opinions.

By the way, according to rumors, the reason why Musk opposed the Democratic Party in 2022 is mainly due to the Biden administration's overly pro-union policies. At the same time, the Biden administration has heavily subsidized electric vehicles in order to compete with China, which has also damaged Musk's Tesla business. Of course, this is just a rumor, and I personally think it is more than that.

Back to the point, in addition to the mutual appreciation and olive branches, the most important thing about this live conversation was that Musk made a suggestion to Trump:"If you are the president of the United States, I am willing to serve in your cabinet and help you manage national spending, such as Secretary of the Treasury or managing the budget."

Trump immediately responded that Musk was the best person for this position in the government because he was doing a very good job of cutting costs on the X platform. In the eyes of Trump, who is also an entrepreneur, Musk's performance in this regard was outstanding.

It is worth mentioning that a few days before this live conversation, Musk had restored Trump’s X account and Trump had published several articles.

I estimate that Trump will become more and more active on the X platform in the future. If he wins the US election this year, then "governing the country through Twitter" from concept to practice will probably be even worse than during his first term.

Here are my comments on this matter.

Whether Musk turned to support Trump in 2022 or live-streamed his conversation with Trump in front of the world today, it showed his position on the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States.

Moreover, his influence was enormous.I think he did a very important thing for Trump, which was like a shot in the arm.

Of course, we are still unsure whether this shot of adrenaline can improve Trump’s current decline. However, this is at least what I have been predicting since last week, that is, Trump is about to make a strong comeback and fight back.This dialogue can be said to be one of the important strategic deployments.

As for why Musk wants to come back, I think it is most likely related to the Democratic Party, especially the Biden administration, which has squeezed too much entrepreneurial space, economic benefits, and is too inclined towards trade unions. More importantly, his values ​​​​are similar to Trump's to a certain extent.

To be honest, the reason why I have repeatedly opposed Trump’s values ​​on the show is that in my opinion, Trump’s values ​​are not only wrong, but also very dangerous.

It can be seen that modern Western democratic society has big problems. It has cultivated a group of professional politicians, including Obama, Clinton, Hillary and now Biden, which has seriously deviated from the original intention of democracy.

The so-called democracy originally meant that professionals gave up their favorable living conditions and career prospects, stood out from one or two elections through citizen elections and election campaigns, and then spent 4 to 8 years serving the community and the country.

Biden became a senator at the age of 29, and then rose all the way to the current president of the United States. In other words, for someone like Biden, there is no other way but to go into politics. If he loses the election, it basically means that he will be unemployed. Hillary, who also ran for election with Trump in 2016, her final fate is the best proof of this.

So in this sense, entrepreneurs’ participation in politics is in line with the original intention of democracy in theory. Entrepreneurs’ participation in politics does have the ability to solve problems, because they mainly think in a problem-solving way. So from the perspective of problem solving,

Trump's first term was not entirely useless. For example, he actually resolved the North Korean nuclear issue during his first term.

Back to Musk, he was born in South Africa. Because the US Constitution stipulates that people born abroad cannot run for the US president, Musk cannot become the US president.

Although he failed to become president, he has a successful career, so it is reasonable for him to want to expand his influence in American politics to satisfy his political ambitions.

It is worth noting that now that Musk and Trump are "tied" together, for him, are the benefits greater than the disadvantages, or are the disadvantages greater than the benefits? This is something that Musk needs to think about, and it is also something that everyone should pay more attention to.

So how much help will Musk's candidacy have on Trump's future election prospects? We will continue to observe in the next 90 days.

02

Next, let's talk about the second clue: the recent war between Russia and Ukraine.

Last week, the Ukrainian army suddenly broke through the Russian-Ukrainian defense line and entered Russia's Kursk Province. Not only did they not voluntarily withdraw, but they continued to invade, and the Russian side did not drive them away.

Although the number of Ukrainian attackers is not large, they are indeed continuing to advance into Russia's "heartland". This forces people to re-examine and even think about what Zelensky's real strategic intention is?

On August 12, Zelensky publicly stated that their goal is to continue advancing into Russia.

Previously, some observers, including me, believed that this was Zelensky's attempt to increase his bargaining chips in future Russia-Ukraine negotiations, but now we have to rethink what bargaining chips he wants to obtain.

I think there are only two.

First, humiliate Russia.

This goal has been achieved. This Ukrainian raid exposed Russia's problems, that is, its border is like a no-man's land. So if Russia cannot defeat Ukraine, I am afraid it will not be able to defend its own territory in the future. This is also an important drawback of non-modern countries.

It must be pointed out that the United States stated that it was unaware of Zelensky's actions to mobilize Ukrainian troops deep into the heart of Russia, which means that Ukraine's actions this time were completely spontaneous.

If this is the case, then Ukraine will either withdraw while it is ahead, although from the current situation, it does not intend to do so; or it will want to swallow up a piece of Russian land and then "set up camp" there. However, if it is the latter, without the support of the United States and NATO, Ukraine will face the attack of Russia directly.

Second, continue to advance, but after advancing, disperse everywhere and fight guerrilla warfare with Russia.

To be honest, I still think that the first possibility is relatively greater. As to whether my guess is correct, it depends on what actions Ukraine will take in the next few days or even weeks.

However, this Ukrainian raid not only shows us its ambitions, but also exposes Russia's internal flaws.

Regarding this point, whether from the perspective of the military or the national defense system, Russia may really need to think more about its transformation into a modern country.