Guanlan Pavilion | In-depth raid on Kursk, Russia, why did Zelensky want to "touch the tiger's butt"?
2024-08-13
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The best defense is offense? Recently, Ukraine, which has been embroiled in domestic warfare and whose eastern territories are occupied by Russia, suddenly struck back and launched a deep raid on Russia.
According to media reports, on August 12, local time, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that a total of 28 settlements and about 2,000 people in Kursk Oblast were controlled by the Ukrainian army. At present, a total of 121,000 people have been evacuated from the border area in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian army's attack has killed 12 civilians in the state and injured 121 people.
The Ukrainian armed forces' battle deep into Russian territory began on August 6, which shocked Russia. On August 12, in Kiev, Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Sersky reported to Zelensky: about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory are now under the control of the Ukrainian army. For nearly a week, the Russian army has been trying to drive Ukrainian soldiers out of Russian territory, but Ukraine has sent its best troops and new Western equipment to participate in the attack, complicating the situation.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and its allies have been adhering to the policy of limiting the use of Western aid to Ukraine, that is, weapons provided by the West are strictly limited to use in Ukraine and cannot be used to attack the Russian mainland. They are worried that if this restriction is relaxed, it may intensify violence and lead to an escalation of the war. However, since the end of May this year, the US policy has loosened.
On May 30, local time, several US officials said that under pressure from senior advisers and major allies, US President Biden has quietly authorized Ukraine to use US weapons to carry out limited strikes in Russia. Although White House National Security Council spokesman Kirby still said at a press conference on May 28 that "our policy has not changed. We do not encourage or allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons to attack Russia," US Secretary of State Blinken said during his visit to Moldova on May 29 that the US policy on aiding Ukraine had been "adapted and adjusted" as the battlefield situation changed. This statement was seen as a hint of a change in US policy.
What prompted Zelensky to decide on the deep raid in Kursk was the changes in the international situation, especially the uncertainty of the US election, which made Zelensky believe that taking the initiative would be more conducive to gaining a favorable position in future negotiations. Regarding Ukraine's deep raid, Putin said that Kiev was trying to improve its future negotiating position through its actions in Kursk Oblast. Putin's judgment is reasonable.
Previously, Zelensky had expressed his willingness to negotiate to resolve the conflict. Zelensky wanted to negotiate because of the US election situation. The ruling Democratic Party in the United States currently supports the continued fighting between Ukraine and Russia, but the US Republican presidential candidate Trump has repeatedly stated that he will "end this conflict that has claimed countless lives."
Without the support of the United States and NATO, it is impossible for Ukraine to continue fighting against the "tiger-level" Russia. Trump's so-called quick end to the war cannot be achieved unless Ukraine's interests are sacrificed. Zelensky has a clear understanding of the difficulties that may be brought about by changes in the US election situation. In this context, negotiating to end the conflict can help Zelensky prevent unexpected events.
But Zelensky currently does not have many cards in his hand to negotiate an end to the conflict. Russian troops already control about 18% of Ukraine's territory, including most of the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia in eastern Ukraine that Russia has occupied during military operations over the past two years, as well as the previously occupied Crimea Peninsula. Zelensky is well aware that if he negotiates now, the territory will not be returned, and even if peace is achieved, it will undoubtedly be a complete failure for the Ukrainian side, not to mention the large number of casualties.
If you want to negotiate, you must have victories as bargaining chips. The 2024 US election will be held on November 5. For Zelensky, it is most advantageous to get more victories and complete the negotiations before this time. Zelensky knows this, and Putin knows it even better. Once Russia's territory is occupied by Ukraine, it will inevitably fall into a new passive position.
For Ukraine, it is "a beautiful idea, but a harsh reality". This deep raid, "28 settlements were controlled by the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army penetrated 12 kilometers into the territory and fought within a range of 40 kilometers", did cause Russia to be very passive, but the effect was limited. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated on the 12th that in the battle in the Kursk direction, 1,610 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or injured, and 32 Ukrainian tanks had been destroyed.
The raid also further distanced the willingness for "peace talks". Putin pointed out that it was impossible to talk about ending the conflict through negotiations after the Ukrainian armed forces launched an attack on Russian territory and its civilians.
As for the two sides of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the two sides are asymmetric in terms of resources, energy, and military strength. No matter how weak the Russian army is in the war, it is much stronger than Ukraine after all. The two sides are "players of different weights", and Russia's nuclear deterrence has always been the sword of Damocles. Ukraine wants to use the surprise attack to prove that it has the strength to cause trouble to Russia, and to use this as a warning to make it restrained. However, with Ukraine's current strength, it is very difficult to get what it wants on the battlefield. It can touch the "tiger's" butt, but the gains will not be much.
In terms of Ukraine's geographical location, it is located between the two superpowers, NATO countries in Europe and Russia. It is a "neighbor that cannot be moved away" by both sides. No matter which side it leans towards, the other side will not accept it. Although the United States and NATO currently support Ukraine, it must not be relied on for long. If you lean on the wall, the wall will fall one day; the way to survival depends on yourself, not on others. In the long run, it is crucial to adopt a balanced national policy.
(Dazhong News reporter Zhou Xuezhe)
