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The world is watching closely to see when and how Iran will retaliate against Israel.

According to CCTV News, CCTV reporters learned on August 10 local time that Shamkhani, the political adviser to Iran's supreme leader, said that Israel's only purpose in killing Haniyeh was to seek war and undermine the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. He said that Iran has been prepared to severely punish Israel through legal, diplomatic and media procedures.

Earlier, according to a report by Cankaoxiaoxi.com on August 9, citing CNN, Iran is considering canceling its plan to retaliate against Israel in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza.

The report analyzed that Iran threatened Israel immediately after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. If it wants to retract its threats, Iran needs to save diplomatic face: a ceasefire in Gaza will enable Tehran to claim that it cares more about the lives of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip than revenge, which meets the needs. But for Iran, the reward must be large enough because it is related to its honor and deterrence.

Regarding the delay in taking action, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said on August 6 that Iran has not yet taken military action, but is instead waging psychological warfare against Israel. At the same time, military institutions in many parts of Iran have recently launched military exercises.

Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the postponement of announced retaliatory strikes against Israel was also "part of the punishment."

Is Iran’s military retaliation “tentative but not yet launched”?

On July 31, Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Iran believes that Israel planned and carried out the assassination and vowed to retaliate.

After the incident, according to three anonymous Iranian officials, Supreme Leader Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel, but it is unclear whether Iran will adjust its means of retaliation again to avoid escalating the situation. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on July 31 saying that Iran and the resistance forces will make a "severe and large-scale response" to the incident. Iran's new President Pezerhizzian said that Iran will "defend its sovereignty, dignity, honor and pride, and make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly behavior."

A series of remarks by Iran's top military and political leaders have also convinced the outside world that Iran's military retaliation is imminent, but nearly ten days have passed and the arrow has not been fired, sparking discussion from the outside world.

Axios, a US website, previously reported that sources revealed that US Secretary of State Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that Iran and Hezbollah's attacks on Israel could begin as early as the 5th. Blinken also said that the United States did not know the exact time when the attack might be launched, but emphasized that the attack could begin as early as the next 24 to 48 hours.

As of August 10, Beijing time, Iran has not launched any retaliation against Israel. A spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on August 6 that Iran has not taken any military action yet, but is instead waging psychological warfare against Israel.

The psychological warfare here refers to Iran's threats of military retaliation against Israel, but Israel does not know when and how Iran will retaliate, which makes Israel psychologically fearful. Iran's first direct military strike on Israeli military targets from its own territory in April has demonstrated that Iran has this ability and determination.

"There is definitely psychological warfare. After Iran vowed to retaliate, both the United States and Israel were very nervous. The United States deployed troops in the Middle East, and the Israeli military also went on high alert. Cities such as Haifa also made corresponding preparations." Niu Xinchun, executive director of the Institute of China-Arab Countries at Ningxia University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn).

Since last week, the Israeli military has stepped up its nationwide air raid sirens and broadcast alert system, including real-time text messages to residents in targeted areas. Many local councils have advised residents to reduce unnecessary activities, stay near protected areas and avoid large gatherings.

Niu Xinchun analyzed that compared with Israel, Iran is the weaker party in military strength, especially intelligence capabilities. It takes a lot of time to prepare intelligence and military deployment to retaliate against Israel militarily. It took more than ten days to prepare for military retaliation against Israel in April this year.

"In addition, are they determined to fight? How to fight? On what scale? These are also very difficult choices for Iran. It will take time for internal assessment and external coordination with members of the so-called 'resistance axis'," Niu Xinchun said. "Iran is very likely to retaliate against Israel militarily. Otherwise, it will be difficult to explain to both the inside and the outside. The focus now is on how to retaliate."

On April 1 this year, Israel launched an air strike on the annex of the Iranian Embassy in Syria. On April 13, Iran used drones and missiles to attack two Israeli military targets.

Israel's Jerusalem Post reported that sources said Iran plans to launch an attack on Israel on August 12-13, the sacred "Temple Destruction Day". The report mentioned that Temple Destruction Day is a national day of mourning for the Jewish people. This day is the day when the First and Second Temples in Jerusalem were destroyed.

According to Israeli media reports, on the evening of August 8, local time, the Israeli Security Cabinet held a meeting in the underground command room of the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv to discuss how to respond to possible attacks on Israel by Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. The report said that the IDF had prepared a major response and that Israel was ready for a possible escalation into a full-scale war.

According to the German news TV channel website, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah told thousands of supporters in Beirut in a video speech on the 6th: "Making Israel wait is part of revenge and part of the fight." Nasrallah also said that Israel will "inevitably" take "strong revenge" for the assassination of Hezbollah's senior military commander Fuad Shukur. The revenge action may be carried out alone or in cooperation with other "resistance forces" such as Iran and Yemen.

Iran faces a tough choice?

Iran faces a difficult choice in its retaliation against Israel. On the one hand, it needs to save face and demonstrate deterrence through military retaliation; on the other hand, it wants to avoid a full-scale war or military conflict. Therefore, it is crucial to strike the right balance.

The Wall Street Journal published an article saying that Iran and its allies are weighing how to retaliate strongly against Israel's two assassinations in Beirut and Tehran while avoiding triggering a full-scale war that no one wants to see. Iran is facing a difficult choice.

Reference News Network quoted the US Politico as saying that US officials now estimate that Iran will abandon its plan to launch a large-scale attack on Israel due to the killing of Hamas leader Haniyeh. At the same time, the US expects Tehran to still make some response to Haniyeh's death. The Iranian authorities have not explicitly announced that they have given up the idea of ​​large-scale retaliation. Israel and the United States now believe that the attack will mainly come from Hezbollah.

As for whether Iran will give up its attack on Israel, Russian Middle East expert Daniel Krylov believes that it is too early to say whether Iran's plan has changed. He said: "Tehran may have decided to act in an Eastern way, which will be beyond the expectations of the outside world, first of all, it will not be what the United States expects. If you look at the American media, they predict every day that Iran will attack Israel, but why should Iran act according to other people's logic?"

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi appears to believe Iran may be seeking ways to de-escalate the situation, according to US media. Safadi met with Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri and new President Massoud Pezerhiziyan in Tehran last weekend.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who is attending the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, reportedly said: "The first step to prevent the escalation is to eliminate its root cause, which is the ongoing Israeli aggression against Gaza."

According to Iranian media reports, the new Iranian president expressed his concerns about possible military action against neighboring countries during a meeting between Pezhichyan and the country's supreme leader. He is worried that such actions may not only increase regional tensions, but also have an adverse impact on his term. In a meeting with a senior security official from a friendly country, Pezhichyan made it clear that Iran does not seek to expand the regional crisis, but at the same time reserves the right to respond to certain actions.

U.S. diplomatic mediation and military deterrence may also influence Iran's decision-making.

According to the Times of Israel, the United States has been mediating between Iran and Israel to avoid an escalation of the conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a meeting with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marrs on the 6th that he was working with allies to communicate directly with Iran and Israel. The Washington Post reported that the U.S. efforts have worked and "Iran may be reassessing its position."

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on the 9th local time, citing US officials, the United States has warned Iran that if Iran launches a large-scale attack on Israel, the Iranian government and economy may suffer a devastating blow.

The official said the United States has sent a clear message to Iran that if they launch a major retaliatory attack on Israel, the risk of escalation will be very high. If Iran launches a large-scale attack on Israel, the stability of Iran's economy and government will be at serious risk. The United States has conveyed this warning to Iran directly or through intermediaries, but did not provide specific details. At present, Iran has not responded to this.

The US Department of Defense announced on the 2nd of this month that the US military will send additional warships, including aircraft carriers, and more fighter jets to the Middle East to respond to the escalating tensions in the region after the assassination of the Hamas leader, and to assist in the defense of Israel.PentagonIt also plans to deploy more land-basedBallistic MissilesDefense system. The US military announced on the 8th that the US F-22A "Raptor" stealth fighter arrived in the Middle East that day to respond to the escalation of the situation.

In April this year, during Iran's first military strike against Israel from its homeland, the US military deployed in the Middle East conducted multi-level interception of drones and missiles launched by Iran. Many drones and cruise missiles were intercepted before reaching Israel, alleviating the military pressure on Israel. It is reported that in this interception operation, the US military used the "Standard-3" anti-missile interceptor missile in actual combat for the first time.

The scholars interviewed believe that Iran is fully evaluating the military retaliation plan and intensity, and how to respond "toughly" to Israel's assassination without losing control of the situation. Andrei Ontikov, a Russian expert on Eastern issues, also believes that it is too early to assert that "Iran has changed its mind."

Iran's official tough attitude has not changed significantly. Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Bagheri told the media at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting on the 8th that Israel's assassination of Haniyeh in Iran was a strategic mistake and Israel will pay a heavy price for it. Bagheri said that the member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation have expressed support for Iran's retaliatory actions.

(Intern Wang Yuyin also contributed to this article)