How far can Orban’s “peace mission” go?
2024-08-07
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Author: He Ting (Assistant Researcher, Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has never been a politician content to stay calm. At the beginning of July, he launched a "peace mission" diplomatic trip at lightning speed, quickly visiting Ukraine, Russia, China and the United States, attracting the attention of the world.
During his stay in the United States, he made a special trip to Florida to visit Trump, thus completing five important visits of the "Peace Mission".
Prescription for the Russia-Ukraine conflict
During the "peace mission", Orban wrote three letters to European Council President Michel, after completing his visits to Russia, China and the United States. In the letters, Orban expressed his views on the situation between Russia and Ukraine after talks with Ukraine, Russia, China and the United States. He believes that, first of all, neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to initiate a ceasefire or peace talks, nor will they start looking for a way out of the conflict without major external intervention. Secondly, important players in the international landscape need to participate in the peace process. There are three global players who can influence the development of events: the European Union, the United States and China. Among the three, China has always called for a ceasefire and peace talks. As for the United States, he believes that Trump can act as a peace mediator after being elected as the US president. If he wins the election, Trump will definitely act "according to his detailed and reliable plan"; but before the election, his campaign will focus on domestic issues, and foreign policy will only account for a smaller part, so Trump cannot be expected to initiate a peace process before the election. Finally, he believes that the EU should seek an independent European strategic or political action plan to create conditions for efforts to ease tensions and start peace talks.
On June 12, Orban attended a press conference in Budapest, Hungary. Xinhua News Agency
In his letter, Orban also made three suggestions for a peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict: first, high-level political negotiations with China on the format of the next peace conference; second, reopening direct diplomatic communication channels with Russia while maintaining the current high-level political relations with Ukraine; and third, launching a coordinated political action towards the "global South".
The reason for visiting four countries and five stations in a short period of time is that Orban hopes to understand the demands of all parties through exchanges with Russia, Ukraine and relevant major powers, so as to find a way to peacefully resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been delayed until now. The advancement of the peace process requires not only rational dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, but also effective coordination among relevant major powers. Orban's "peace mission" is his attempt to establish a communication channel between the East and the West. Orban said: "Peace in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not come automatically, and someone needs to create it."
Shaping domestic and international image
The "peace mission" fits the political image that the Orban government has created since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022, there was only a little over a month before the Hungarian parliamentary elections. The Fidesz led by Orban was considered a friend of the initiator of the war because of its close relationship with the Putin government, and was at a disadvantage in the parliamentary elections. However, the Fidesz quickly launched the campaign slogan of "security and peace", creating a political image of ensuring national security, maintaining peace, and opposing war. Not only did it win the election, it also won more than two-thirds of the seats, and Orban was successfully re-elected for the fourth time. Since then, the Orban government has always insisted on "security and peace" in the Russia-Ukraine situation.
The "Peace Mission" was used to change the disadvantageous position of Fidesz in domestic politics since this year. In February this year, then-Hungarian President Novak was embroiled in a scandal for pardoning an accomplice in a child molestation case in 2023. Voters believed that this move went against Fidesz's advocacy of valuing families and children, and the scale of public protests was unprecedented. In order to quickly calm the situation, President Novak and Justice Minister Varga, who signed the pardon order, both resigned, and Fidesz's public support rate plummeted. Therefore, although Fidesz maintained its dominant position as the largest party in Hungary in the European Parliament elections and local elections in June, its votes were significantly reduced. Orban used the "Peace Mission" to exert influence in matters of concern to the international community, which helped to dilute the negative impact of the scandal on Fidesz.
In addition, the Orban government also used its rotating presidency to carry out a "peace mission". Since the Orban government came to power in 2010, Hungary has often clashed with the EU on democratic issues. The European Parliament has held hearings on Hungary many times, covering constitutional reform, media law, non-governmental organizations and other fields. In September 2022, the European Parliament passed a resolution that the Hungarian government deliberately and systematically undermined European values and that Hungary could no longer be regarded as a democratic country. On issues such as refugees, aid to Ukraine, and sanctions against Russia, Hungary openly opposed EU policies and positions, so much so that the European Parliament attempted to pass a resolution in June 2023 calling on EU member states to prevent Hungary from assuming the presidency.
The rotating presidency of the European Union provides the Orban government with an opportunity to do big things. The rotating presidency of the European Union comes once every 13.5 years and lasts for half a year. During the term of office, the rotating presidency can put the country's priorities high on the EU agenda. Hungary naturally wants to take this opportunity to increase its influence in EU and even international affairs.
After the June elections, the rise of right-wing forces in the European Parliament provided Hungary with new opportunities to exert its influence in the European Parliament. On June 30, Orban, together with the leaders of the Austrian Freedom Party and the Czech "Discontented Citizens' Action" party, jointly announced the formation of the "European Patriots" group in the European Parliament. Subsequently, right-wing parties in many countries announced their participation, and a total of 84 members of parliament from 12 countries formed a new right-wing political group, becoming the third largest group in the European Parliament, second only to the center-right European People's Party group and the center-left Socialist Party group. Through this newly established group, Fidesz found a new ally in the European Parliament to keep warm together. As the founder of the group, Fidesz's voice in the European Parliament has risen rapidly.
Seeking new partners
Orban sees the United States as a potential partner. Hungary's slogan as the rotating presidency of the European Union, "Make Europe Great Again," reminds people of Trump's "Make America Great Again." Orban's anti-immigration rhetoric, Christian nationalist ideology, and conservative attitude towards LGBTQ rights (a general term for sexual minorities) all give him common topics with Trump. When Trump was president, Orban expressed his like-mindedness with him, and he is also optimistic about Trump in this year's US election. In March this year, Orban made a special trip to visit Trump during his visit to the United States, and this "peace mission" specially arranged a lightning meeting with Trump. If Trump is successfully elected, relying on his relationship with Orban, US-Hungarian relations may go a step further.
There is a Hungarian proverb that says, "Pepper may be small, but it has a strong punch." Although Hungary is a small country located in the heart of Europe, sandwiched between the East and the West, its Prime Minister Viktor Orban has considerable political ambitions. Hungary itself is a member of the European Union and NATO, and maintains friendly relations with China and Russia. Orban is trying to seek more benefits for Hungary by maintaining a balance between the East and the West and seeking room for maneuver between major powers. The "Peace Mission" is an attempt by Orban to mediate between major powers.
The "peace mission" did not receive support from the EU, and the EU even tried to undermine Hungary's status as the rotating presidency of the EU. On July 17, the European Parliament passed a resolution reaffirming the EU's support for Ukraine and saying that Orban's visit to Russia and meeting with Putin violated the EU treaty and common foreign policy. The EU originally planned to hold a diplomatic summit in Budapest, the capital of Hungary, from August 28 to 29. Due to concerns that Orban might use the opportunity of the host to influence the EU's diplomatic agenda, some EU leaders planned to organize another diplomatic summit at the end of August to boycott the informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Budapest. Currently, Sweden, Finland, Poland and the three Baltic countries have expressed their intention to participate in the boycott.
In Orban's view, every step of his plan has been realized. Hungarian Foreign Minister Siardo said on social media: "For weeks, the diplomatic bureaucracy in Brussels and the leaders of certain EU member states have been nagging about our 'peace mission' out of frustration, jealousy, and because their wrong strategy has been exposed. However, the Swiss Foreign Minister met with the Russian Foreign Minister, the US and Russian Defense Ministers held a telephone conversation, and Zelensky talked with Trump."
As usual, EU opposition will not make Hungary give up its plans. Orban's "peace mission" journey continues.
Guangming Daily (12th edition, July 31, 2024)
Source: Guangming Daily
