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In the past two days, there has been a new explanation for the claim that Haniyeh was attacked and killed. In addition to the two possibilities I mentioned last time, namely, the infiltrators launching anti-tank missiles and the Israeli aircraft air strike, there is new revelation that the Israelis infiltrated this veterans' residence managed by the Iranian Islamic Guard Corps as early as two months ago and set a bomb in the room, waiting to detonate it after Haniyeh moved in, because Haniyeh stayed in this room every time he came.

If so, on the one hand, Iran's anti-infiltration capabilities are really worrying. On the other hand, if there is indeed no air strike, then Israel has not yet intensified the emotional confrontation with Arab countries. As for the media's urgent report that it was an air strike, it was probably the traditional art of non-professional translators mistranslating nouns. This situation is like an antelope hanging on a horn, with no trace to be found, and there is no way to predict or warn. However, no matter what the specific process is, the current situation is that Iran has once again announced that it will retaliate, Israel has once again made harsh remarks, and at the same time continues to hunt down leaders of Iranian-affiliated armed forces such as Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon. The war is imminent.

If Israel and Iran come into direct conflict, what will the fighting style be like and which side can deal a greater blow to the opponent? You can guess first. Because this result will affect the influence and control of Iran, Israel, Arab countries, the United States and other forces in the Middle East in the future, and it is possible to further affect the political direction of the Middle East. If Israel suffers more, it may mean the rapid death of the Netanyahu government, and Israel will have to make a series of concessions on territorial issues. Arab countries will also be more polite to Iran's strength and seek more cooperation. At the same time, due to religious and historical grievances, they will also be more vigilant and seek to establish a new balance of power.

If Iran suffers more, the reformist forces in Iran will have more reasons to question and confront the conservative religious forces represented by Khamenei. Arab countries may be more willing to lead the negotiations between Palestine and Israel, so that Hamas will be affiliated with Fatah and reduce its influence by Iran. They may even confront the Houthis again, because Arab countries have suffered losses in front of the Houthis before, and they still regard the Houthis as a threat. Moreover, the Houthis' Red Sea ship attack also hurt Arab countries. If Iran has problems, the foundation of the Houthis will be shaken. Both Israel and Iran must place a heavy bet. Israel and Iran do not border each other. If they want to attack each other's homeland, if we don't count the 50,000 Houthis who are said to be walking to fight Israel, then both sides have limited means. At least no one in the world knows where these 50,000 people are walking.

If Iran opens fire on its homeland, it will have to rely on ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles. Ballistic missiles are easy to say, but it is problematic for drones and cruise missiles to pass through the territories of Arab countries. Arab countries will not help Israel fight Iran, but they will probably not allow Iranian missiles and drones to pass through, otherwise it will be tantamount to choosing sides to join the war. These countries will also intercept Iranian drones and missiles. Similarly, if Israel wants to attack Iran's homeland, it can only pass through Syria and Iraq, making a long-distance attack. Countries like Jordan cannot help Israel take action against Iran. Therefore, a larger-scale battle should break out in Lebanon and Syria. Iran, mainly Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, Jihad and other organizations, will use various tactical ballistic missiles, rockets and drones to attack important Israeli facilities. The tactical missiles and rockets on hand of these organizations are very large in number and cannot be intercepted by Israel with the Iron Dome. Once a full-scale war begins, northern Israel will inevitably suffer serious losses.

So now the US military is also in a hurry to deploy the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier, which should be to help Israel and Jordan perform air defense interception missions. Moreover, if ground combat is launched and street fighting is fought, Hezbollah has made Israel suffer a lot. Israel should use air strikes to cooperate with ground attacks to weaken Hamas and Hezbollah as much as possible, similar to the practice in Gaza, and will use its intelligence advantage as much as possible to find the leaders of various Iranian armed factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran. If Israel fights desperately, it can also cause great losses to the Iranian armed forces, forcing Iran to think about whether it is worthwhile to do so. After all, the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran were killed in the attack, and the scale of Iran's counterattack was relatively limited. The leaders of Hamas are not core interests for Iran. What Iran wants is more political face. As for the United States, the Democratic government may coax and intimidate both sides, and maintain the same operation as the last round. Then, the question is, will we see a similar scene as before, with both sides making limited responses, the thunder must be loud, and the raindrops can be slightly smaller.