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Israel's "old problem" is back: Before Iran takes action, it wants to strike first

2024-08-06

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Now the entire Middle East is anxiously waiting for Iran to retaliate against Israel. The United States is intensively dispatching military forces to the Middle East and contacting its Middle Eastern allies to try to block Iran's potential attacks. Israel is now fully prepared to deal with Iran's retaliation at any time, but Israel is still brewing a plan. They may not want to wait passively. Once they are sure that Iran is going to retaliate, they are ready to take the initiative instead of waiting for Iran to take action. It has to be said that the current situation in the Middle East has reached the edge of tension. Will Israel take action in advance?

Israel is discussing an option: not waiting for Iran to attack, but taking action first

According to CCTV.com, on August 4, Blinken told allies at a G7 meeting that Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah may retaliate against Israel within the next 24 to 48 hours, but Iran's specific mode of retaliatory attack is still uncertain.

Although the potential attack on Iran is still under prediction, two things seem certain: First, Iran will retaliate against Israel no matter what. Iran's ally Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, and Iran was unable to guarantee the safety of its ally in its own capital, which is obviously a huge loss of face. For Iran, Israel's move has seriously hurt its self-esteem, so retaliatory actions against Israel are inevitable, otherwise Iran will lose face in the Middle East.

Second, all parties generally estimate that Iran's attack this time will be larger than the previous one, but the pattern will most likely continue to be the "drones plus missiles" of April, except that the number of drones and missiles participating in the attack may increase.

Now all parties are urgently waiting and preparing to respond to Iran's retaliatory attack. The United States has intensively mobilized troops to the Middle East, and even directly dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups and a "Raptor" fighter (F-22) squadron. In addition, the United States is intensively contacting its allies in the Middle East, hoping to work together to block Iran's attack. The United States attaches great importance to Jordan because Jordan intercepted Iran's drone group last time, and the United States hopes that Jordan can repeat the last action this time.

As a party involved, Israel is now intensively responding to Iran's potential attacks. It is said that Israel has now used electronic jamming, and the positioning within Israel can even deviate to Beirut, Lebanon.

The United States is intensively deploying troops to the Middle East to "assist in the defense" of Israel

In addition, according to the Times of Israel, Netanyahu convened a national security meeting to discuss how to respond to possible Iranian attacks. During this process, the Israeli military put forward a suggestion: instead of passively waiting for Iran's attack, it is better to take the initiative directly, which will certainly deter Iran.

It has to be said that preemptive strikes are in line with Israel's national character. Since its founding, Israel has been surrounded by powerful enemies, which has prompted Israel to develop an extremely sensitive sense of security. Whenever it feels that surrounding enemies show signs of being unfavorable to itself, Israel will often choose to take the initiative and eliminate the danger in advance.

The most typical case is probably the Third Middle East War. As the surrounding Arab countries continued to expand their military power and border conflicts continued, Israel simply took the initiative and defeated Egypt, Jordan and Syria in just a few days.

During the Syrian civil war, Israel was very wary of the expansion of Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Syria. Once it found something was not right, Israel would act quickly to eliminate the hidden dangers.

Now that Iran's attack is imminent, the danger is imminent for Israel. Will Israel take preemptive action as it did before? According to Israeli media, this option has only been discussed. Security officials in Tel Aviv said that Israel will only take this preemptive action if it receives accurate intelligence confirming that Tehran is about to launch an attack.

Will Israel launch a preemptive strike against Iran?

In terms of capabilities, Israel definitely has the military capability to preemptively strike, and the death of Haniyeh is a typical example. However, if Israel really does this, the situation in the Middle East may get out of control. Iran's initial retaliation may be restrained, but once Israel strikes first, the situation may change suddenly.