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On the last day of July, the Middle East was once again in a state of tension when Hamas political leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, Iran. China, Russia, Turkey, Lebanon and other countries publicly condemned the assassination. Qatar claimed that this was a heinous crime and a dangerous escalation, and a blatant violation of international law and humanitarian law. Israel neither admitted nor denied the assassination. Now, the US is convinced that Iran will launch a large-scale air strike against Israel in retaliation in the next two days. It is said that Iran has discussed two response plans with members of the "Axis of Resistance". Although the specific details of the assassination have not yet been clarified, we can still analyze the means of attack available to Israel and think about the new changes that may occur in future assassinations in the Middle East.

The earliest claim was an air strike: news media associated with Iran's Supreme National Security Council reported that Haniyeh's residence was hit by "aerial projectiles," which may refer to missiles. Given Israel's precision strike capabilities used in similar operations in the past, this possibility cannot be ignored. There are many weapon platforms that can launch "aerial projectiles."

There are unconfirmed claims that the assassination may involve a small quadcopter, that is, an operation carried out by a drone. This drone may be launched near Haniyeh's residence and has the ability to enter specific buildings or even rooms. Israel's use of small weaponized drones in urban operations is a recognized capability. The combat style of the Ukrainian battlefield has fully demonstrated the feasibility of drones to carry out assassination missions. If it is a national operation of Israel, the drone can be designed as an autonomous indoor killing machine, because Haniyeh's facial data is likely to be mastered by Israel. As long as the drone enters the room where Haniyeh lives, it is very simple to complete such an assassination.

There is also a less likely theory, that is, traditional air strikes and long-range missile attacks: The Israeli Air Force has long-range strike capabilities, and the F-15I, F-16I fighters and F-35I stealth fighters can carry out precision strikes on targets in Syria, and may even penetrate Iranian airspace. However, the possibility of reaching Tehran directly is low. This makes it possible that Israel dispatched a tanker, or multiple fighters to carry out partner refueling, approached Iranian airspace and launched missiles to carry out precision strikes on Haniya’s base. If Israeli fighters launch cruise missiles or air-launched ballistic missiles, they may be able to complete such a strike when Iran’s air defense forces are negligent. The air-based "Laura" ballistic missile equipped by Israel has a range of 430 kilometers, which is a possible option. However, judging from the power of the explosion at the scene, it is almost certain that it did not come from a long-range missile.

Another method is improvised explosive devices. Israel has extensive experience in targeted killings, including the use of improvised explosive devices and drive-by shootings. Espionage activities in Iran are quite mature, and these methods have been fully established in Israeli operations. The New York Times said that according to the description of US officials and seven Middle Eastern officials, Haniyeh was killed by a remote-controlled bomb placed in his residence in advance. However, this statement seems to be an attempt to cover up the truth, because Iran could not be so careless as not to conduct a security check on Haniyeh's residence, and placing the bomb in the room two months in advance also ignored the possibility that Haniyeh's activity location would change.

Among these three methods of attack, the most likely method is undoubtedly that the Israelis used a drone or smart missile with the ability to kill people indoors to complete the assassination mission. Witnesses said that the missile hit the room and exploded, and the doors, windows, and walls were seriously damaged, indicating that its explosion power was relatively small, and should be comparable to the explosive power of the ammunition carried by the drone that hits tanks on the Ukrainian battlefield. The training of the People's Liberation Army has confirmed that the drone can hit a human-shaped target at the head of the bed indoors. If Israel has made a careful plan to assassinate Haniyeh and deployed an assassination team near his residence, and Haniyeh's residence has open windows for ventilation, everything makes sense. Judging from the public footage at the scene, only the window was damaged. It is also possible that a small missile or drone was used to break the window first, and the second shot entered the room to complete the assassination.

Whether such attacks were carried out using a flying aircraft or a small missile, it indicates that assassination tools are becoming increasingly difficult to defend against due to technological advances, and Israel clearly has some capabilities that have not yet been publicly disclosed.

On August 2, Hamas' representative to Iran disclosed some details of Haniyeh's death: various signs, including the characteristics of Haniyeh's body, showed that the attack was obviously from "an object in the air", which is consistent with our speculation that he was killed by a cruise missile or a flying aircraft.

In addition, we would like to advise Iran to quickly fill the air defense loopholes, stop relying on Russia's S-300, and look to China to import KJ-500 and anti-stealthradarThis is the way out. It is too serious a problem for a country to not even be able to guarantee the safety of its capital.

With the reaction of Hamas and Iran to the assassination, tensions in the Middle East may further escalate. The cycle of assassination and retaliation between Israel and Hamas proves that Netanyahu has no intention of negotiating with Hamas at all. An operation to completely destroy Hamas is being implemented over a long timeline, and it must be carried out before the 14 Palestinian factions can truly reconcile.