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Ukraine's military equipped with the first batch of F-16 fighter jets has crossed Moscow's nuclear red line

2024-08-06

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Recently, the second-hand F-16 fighter jets from the West that Ukraine had been longing for finally arrived in Kiev. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that after a period of overseas training, Ukrainian pilots have begun to use F-16 fighter jets to participate in combat, and it is expected that another 10 F-16 fighter jets will be obtained by the end of the year.

So, what impact will the appearance of these F-16 fighters on the Ukrainian battlefield have on the situation? In the mouths of Western media, this advanced fighter is touted as a "weapon to destroy Russia", as if once it enters the battlefield, it can give the Russian army a heavy blow and help the Ukrainian army turn defeat into victory. However, is this really the case?

The first batch of F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Ukraine

First of all, it is undeniable that the F-16 fighter is indeed an excellent fighter in air combat. Even if it is only second-hand, it may still perform well. However, according to foreign media reports, the batch of F-16 fighters obtained by the Ukrainian army are most likely sent by the Netherlands. They are more than 30 years old, and their performance and safety will decline significantly. Faced with the Russian Aerospace ForcesSu-35 andSu-57 fighter, can we compete with them for air superiority with just some pilots who have been trained for a short time and these old F-16 fighters? The answer is probably no.

Secondly, even if we assume that the West deliberately released a smokescreen and actually provided Ukraine with F-16 fighters with better performance, the Ukrainian military's air defense is weak and there are no advanced air force bases, resulting in a large number of fighters being destroyed by Russian missiles since the outbreak of the conflict. Therefore, if the Russian military launches a targeted attack, the fate of the F-16 fighters will probably be no better than that of the American M1A1 main battle tanks provided to Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov issues nuclear warning

Therefore, the arrival of the F-16 fighter jets can only be said to have enhanced the Ukrainian air force's combat power and caused greater damage to the Russian army. As for whether it can become a "turnaround point" for the Ukrainian army, the hope is obviously not great. However, the threat it brings is already quite clear. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov once publicly warned that if there are mountable missiles in Ukraine,nuclear weaponThe F-16 fighter jets will be regarded by Russia as a nuclear threat from the West.

It is not difficult to see that the meaning behind the Russian side's words is that as long as Western F-16 fighters appear on the Ukrainian battlefield, the Russian army has the right to use nuclear force to counterattack. Russian President Putin has also issued nuclear warnings many times. Now that Kiev and the West have stepped on Moscow's nuclear red line, how the Russian army will counterattack has become a focus of attention and concern for the international community. As the atmosphere of Russia and Ukraine's possible use of nuclear weapons heats up, China has come forward to express its position.

Eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Just as the F-16 fighter jets arrived in Ukraine, a meeting was held in Geneva, Switzerland. At the meeting, China put forward a number of important suggestions on nuclear arms control, including the commitment not to use nuclear weapons first and advocating the five major nuclear powers to conclude a "Treaty on the Non-First Use of Nuclear Weapons"; and advocating nuclear-weapon states to provide security guarantees to non-nuclear states and conclude relevant legal documents.

Although China hinted at the nuclear proliferation of the United States and its allies without naming them, it also reminded Russia that no one would be the winner if a nuclear war broke out. However, judging by Russia's style, it would not wait until it was hit by a nuclear attack from the West before choosing to fight back. Therefore, under the pressure of the West, Moscow would probably respond first, at least to deter the West and prevent it from further escalating its military aid to Ukraine.

Russia advocates a negotiated solution to the conflict

Of course, it is basically impossible to use nuclear weapons to directly attack Kiev. After all, for Russia, it has almost achieved its military goals now. It just needs to wait for Ukraine to be unable to bear it and take the initiative to sit at the negotiation table. Especially recently, Zelensky has frequently sent negotiation signals. If the Russian side turns the table at this time, it will only ruin the advantages it has already gained and put itself in a dangerous situation. Therefore, when the Ukrainian army obtains second-hand F-16 fighter jets, the Russian army may use this to further strengthen its offensive to ensure or even expand its victory.

However, Zelensky's request for the West to provide F-16 fighter jets is probably not an attempt to turn the tables once he gets them, but rather to tie Ukraine firmly to the West, gradually increase the West's involvement in the situation, and try to turn the crisis from a conflict between Russia and Ukraine to a confrontation between the West and Russia. In this way, Ukraine can at least guarantee its own value and will not be easily abandoned by the West.