news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Securities Times reporter Wu Qi

On August 5, affected by the sharp drop in external stock markets, cross-border ETFs fell across the board. During the trading session, many cross-border ETFs, such as Nikkei 225ETF (513880), Nasdaq Technology ETF (159509), and Japan Topix Index ETF (513800), once hit the limit down. As of the close, Nikkei 225ETF and Nasdaq Technology ETF were still at the limit down, and more than 30 cross-border ETFs fell by more than 5%.

Analyzing the specific reasons, on the one hand, the cross-border ETF tracking market has experienced a sharp correction. For example, the Nikkei 225 Index fell 12.40% yesterday, and the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 2.38% in the previous trading day. Recently, with the release of the US July economic and labor data, market concerns about the US recession have continued to intensify, and the expectations of the US stock market recession have increased. Global stock markets have been affected to varying degrees. The uneasy mood has pushed the VIX index, which measures stock market volatility, to its highest level this year. At the same time, affected by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen has appreciated rapidly, hitting Japan's export trade industry, and the Japanese stock market has also suffered a series of heavy losses. He Siyao, multi-asset investment manager of HSBC Jinxin Fund QDII, said that the sharp drop in Japanese stocks was also affected by the dual influence of carry trade liquidation and risk aversion.

On the other hand, the enthusiasm of funds to participate in cross-border ETF investment has faded, which has further aggravated the sluggish performance of cross-border ETFs, and the premium rate of related ETFs has narrowed significantly or even discounted. Previously, funds continued to pursue overseas market products. From the perspective of the premium rate of cross-border ETFs traded on the exchange, the premium rates of Asia Pacific Select ETF and Nasdaq Technology ETF exceeded 20%. During this period, there were also many cross-border products tracking the US stock market and the Japanese stock market with premium rates exceeding 5% for many consecutive days. At present, the attitude of funds towards cross-border ETFs has undergone an extreme reversal, and some funds have chosen to leave the market.

At present, the phenomenon of large premiums of cross-border ETFs has been alleviated, and there is only one cross-border ETF product with a premium rate of more than 5%. Due to the time difference in net value settlement, some cross-border ETFs even have discounts, such as the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF, which has a discount rate of more than 5%.

Institutions generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, and the United States is about to enter a new round of easing cycle. However, due to uncertainty about the future, the market has entered a relatively chaotic stage, and the game on the capital side has intensified.

"At present, the market fluctuations have not yet triggered extreme situations such as liquidity crises." He Siyao believes that what needs to be paid attention to next is whether the factors driving market fluctuations are gradually digested. Before clear information emerges, it is a reasonable strategy to appropriately hedge overseas risky assets.

Looking ahead, Huabao Fund International Business Department believes that the conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates are ripe. If the Fed chooses a relatively mild rate cut mode in the future, the valuation of US stocks can be well supported; among the seven well-known US companies, companies that have disclosed financial reports such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, etc. are relatively active in investing in artificial intelligence (AI), so the valuations of Nvidia and TSMC are expected to be repaired in the future. After accumulating a large increase this year, short-term fluctuations in stock prices are inevitable. The medium- and long-term development potential of AI is still worth looking forward to. Short-term stock price fluctuations have not affected the background of long-term technological revolution.