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Due to the continued decline in deliveries, it has become a consensus that Tesla's Q2 performance was unsatisfactory, and the market will focus on non-automotive businesses.

Tesla will announce its second-quarter 2024 results after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, July 23rd local time.

Considering that Tesla's sales growth has slowed, the market currently expects its performance this year to be "not very ideal", but the better-than-expected second-quarter delivery data and strong energy deployment data may boost Tesla's long-term growth prospects.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Tesla's Q2 sales to be $24.3 billion, down 2.4% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share to be 61 cents, down 33% year-over-year.

Earlier data showed that Tesla delivered 444,000 vehicles in Q2, which was better than expected, retaining its top spot in global electric vehicle sales. The news that the release of the robot taxi Robotaxi was delayed by two months caused Tesla's stock price to plummet.

Tesla's stock price has fallen 3.71% so far this year.

Focus on non-automotive business

Despite the challenges of declining deliveries and the delayed launch of Robotaxi, investors still value Tesla's growth opportunities in areas such as Robotaxi and FSD technology.

1) Robotaxi latest release time

Considering that Tesla recently announced the postponement of the release of Robotaxi, it is expected that Musk will focus on the latest release time of Robotaxi during this earnings call.

Ark Investment, owned by Cathie Wood, recently publicly mentioned that most of Tesla's commercial value comes from Robotaxi, and believes that the latter will change Tesla's business model: from the current one-time income from the sale of electric vehicles to recurring income brought by RoboTaxi.

2) FSD technology adoption rate

Some analysts pointed out that Tesla's current valuation is almost dependent on the success of its FSD technology. If it loses this technology, the company's valuation will shrink by at least $100. As far as this financial report is concerned, the market will focus on the level of FSD adoption.

Some people believe that the market is interested in Tesla's progress in AI because the company has a huge amount of driving data and has a significant advantage in AI training. The FSD technology supported by AI technology "may subvert the entire autonomous driving market."

The risk facing this business now is that as Trump's chances of winning the election increase, he may bring up anti-electric vehicle legislation again after taking office.

3) Energy business, Optimus schedule

In terms of other AI businesses, the market may focus on the timeline of Optimus' business plan.

Tesla also set a record for battery storage deployment in the second quarter, with 9.4GWh installed, the most ever deployed in a single quarter. Tesla Energy currently has higher profit margins than its solar and automotive businesses, and shareholders are likely looking forward to hearing more details about its energy projects.

After the second quarter delivery announcement, Morgan Stanley raised the proportion of energy business in its rating of Tesla, raising the valuation of the business by 40%. Citi, Mizuho and other investment banks also raised Tesla's target price.He also said that future growth will mainly come from the execution of artificial intelligence projects, especially Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robots.

Remaining confident in the automotive business in the long term

In terms of the current core automotive business,The market is focusing on the latest news about the affordable version of Model 2 in the earnings call.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy and his team believe that Tesla's investment theme has shifted from growth driven by the automotive business to growth driven by AI businesses such as autonomous driving and Robotaxi, but the overall plan still needs details:

“While we appreciate the potentially disruptive opportunities these businesses present, we believe they introduce uncertainty into Tesla’s future path and make the company’s success dependent on bets that resemble binary outcomes.”

Levy said Tesla is a significant leader in both the global electric vehicle transition and software-defined vehicle (SDV) space, and its expected positive sales outlook will put it in a favorable position in the long term.

Some analysts said that the entire electric vehicle market is huge, and the penetration rate has just begun to grow. They are still confident in Tesla's leading position in electric vehicles and autonomous driving, and attribute the decline in its deliveries in the first two quarters to the new electric models launched by other brands to grab market share.