Biden's withdrawal from the election has suddenly placed the issue of political morality back at the core of American politics. He has suddenly reversed the discussion on issues such as the American recession, human plight, and economic crisis, and set the political direction back to the topic of the origin of politics.

Written by Lian Qingchuan

Now, it should be a moment of relief and ease for US President Joe Biden, I guess.

As he himself wrote on X after dropping out of this presidential race, "For the remainder of my presidency, I will focus on fulfilling my presidential duties."

Picture/Internet

In the past few months, Biden has indeed been in a state of internal and external troubles.

More and more senior members of the Democratic Party are forcing him to step down; in society, from the left-wing media to Democratic voters, calls for him to voluntarily withdraw are growing louder; and his opponent Trump suffered an attempted murder, his popularity is high, and his advantage in the polls has become more obvious.

There are many people in China who claim to understand the US presidential election, but unfortunately many people do not actually understand: after 200 years of practice, the election is a very delicate technical job. Its core is no longer just the ideological competition between the candidates of the two parties, but more importantly, it is a comprehensive application of the situation, public psychology, campaign funds, mobilization capabilities, network applications and political strategies.

When the Republicans have dominated the overall campaign topic, what other options do the Democrats have? Biden's withdrawal from the election immediately changed the core topic of the entire campaign:The dispute over ideas has turned into a moral competition.

The New York Times said in an editorial that Biden has now done what Trump would never do: he put the interests of the country above his own pride and ambition.

The Atlantic's headline commentary said Biden made the right choice.

Now it is the Republican Party's turn to take the fight. Is Trump, who has gained the upper hand in the election, really unstoppable?

01

This is the most thrilling election in the history of the United States, unprecedented in history.

The previous defeated president ran again, presidential debates took place before the two party conventions, the party publicly called on the party leader to give up the campaign, candidates were assassinated, and the incumbent president withdrew from the election.

In every presidential election, one or two of the above-mentioned black swan events may occur, but it is indeed unheard of to have so many extreme elements concentrated in one election.

This election is almost a matter of life and death.

The global landscape has changed dramatically in the past few years. Geostrategic competition has returned to the world, and the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Palestine and Israel are still lingering with no signs of easing. In the United States, the gap between the rich and the poor has developed rapidly, the division of the United States is imminent, and political violence is rampant.

From outside the United States, it really looks like an "American Civil War."

Biden's withdrawal from the election seems to have been brewing for a long time, but you have to know that as late as March this year, the Democratic Party was still standing behind Biden. The real catastrophic moment was the first presidential debate on June 27.

Leaving aside the official campaign debate committee, adopting an out-of-system debate arena, and holding a general election debate long before the two party conventions were held, was an unusual move. And it was Biden's side that took the initiative.

Of course, questions about Biden's health have long existed.

So Biden's original intention was to use this debate to win public support. However, the opposite happened. His image of stumbling, dull eyes and slow thinking during the debate destroyed people's faith in him at one time, and even triggered a huge crisis within the Democratic Party.

Although Biden has repeatedly stated firmly after the debate that he will continue to run for election, he has triggered multiple crises.

The split within the Democratic Party’s top leadership has made it difficult to mobilize within the party.

Presidential elections have never relied on a single individual, but rather on the combined efforts of large and small constituencies, especially in key swing states. If a candidate cannot mobilize the full participation of the Democratic Party in each state, county, or even community, then his chances of winning will be greatly reduced.

Another fatal problem emerged after the election debate: Biden's campaign fundraising has stagnated. In addition to the stagnation of small donations from the public, all corporate donors naturally expect the Democratic Party to return on its policies after the election. When they smell the ominous smell, they will naturally not invest in a hopeless candidate.

Another frightening fact is that young people who support the Democratic Party are reluctant to come out to vote.They may not vote for Trump, but refusing to vote is itself a dangerous signal.

In every election, mobilizing politically apathetic young people to go out and vote has always been a top priority in campaign techniques. If young people withdraw from voting, the election team will most likely be left with nothing to do.

Even so, Biden still has countless reasons to persevere.

He is the only person who has defeated Trump. The US economy is already booming, unemployment is at a historic low, and most people support the government's policy on the war between Russia and Ukraine. No young person in the party can stand up to Trump...

But a few gunshots completely changed the situation.

The assassination of Trump did not add much weight to Trump, but the Republican Party became unprecedentedly united. Trump seized the core topic of the election, and the participation of Vance, who is only 40 years old, as the vice presidential candidate made Biden look even older.

The only way to change the direction of the election is to change the topic. Biden has to withdraw.

02

But with Biden gone, who will come?

In fact, judging purely by popularity, there is only one person in the Democratic Party who is a sure bet: Michelle Obama, the former first lady. In all polls, Michelle leads Trump by more than ten percentage points.

But this is really a paradox: Michelle Obama's biographer Peter Slevin, in a TV interview, believed that there was no possibility that Michelle would run for election because she had always been opposed to participating in politics. She even opposed Obama himself participating in politics. She believed that politics itself was dirty and "about right and wrong."

The only person who could defeat Trump is someone who has a deep disdain for politics.

After Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, he immediately nominated Kamala Harris as his vice president.

His nomination immediately won the support of Clinton and Hillary Clinton, including several Democratic Party elders, who immediately followed suit. In her brief acceptance of the nomination, Harris said that she would "get and win the nomination."

Kamala Harris has very clear and iconic strengths.

She herself represents diversity and the American dream.She herself is a combination of African and Indian descent, and is naturally able to win the support of minorities.

She is a woman and will be the first choice for many female voters. In addition, her support rate on abortion is extremely high, surpassing all potential candidates.

Moreover, before serving as vice president, she was a senator and attorney general of California and has always been known for her integrity.

However, after Biden dropped out of the race, Obama praised him as a "patriot of the highest standards" but did not declare his support for Harris. It is said that he supports "open and fair" competition at the Democratic National Convention.

Obama's ambiguity shows that there is still an unknown ambiguity within the Democratic Party regarding Kamala Harris.

The 59-year-old Kamala Harris obviously does not have a brilliant political resume, and her popularity is far less than Biden and Trump. Moreover, her administrative resume is simple, and people know nothing about her political, financial and foreign policy inclinations.

When Biden was elected in 2020, I thought Biden would focus on promoting Kamala Harris during his presidency. Now it seems that this may be one of Biden’s biggest failures.

His age issue was widely criticized back then. If he had given Kamala Harris enough exposure in the past four years and given her the responsibility of achieving political achievements, her competitiveness would have been significantly improved.

Now that she has been rushed into office, her experience as a vice president has not given her many points. In front of Trump, who has a clear personality,Whether Kamala Harris has enough confidence and the ability to withstand blows is still unknown.

Also, who will be her partner? That's another huge question.

03

Trump's chances of winning have increased dramatically.

After the assassination, the gap between Trump and Biden is gradually widening. He has become the center of attention.And now he faces a Democratic Party that is rushed, broken and patchwork.

The Democratic National Convention is still a month away. The internal party nomination battle cannot be settled before then, and there is still a fight for the vice presidential candidate. It is obviously too late to formulate campaign strategies after that. Trump's campaign strategy and team were fully deployed at the beginning of this year. In terms of timetable, the Democratic Party is already far behind.

Trump now has three weapons in his hands:

First, the Republican Party is unprecedentedly united.Previously, his biggest rival in the party, Nikki Haley, had announced her surrender, and the Republican establishment had all surrendered. The just-concluded Republican convention was declared to be a "unity convention", and even those dissatisfied Republicans tended to believe that Trump was the only candidate who could defeat the Democrats.

Second, the joining of vice presidential candidate Vance.Vance's nomination shocked many people, but in the end they all couldn't help but sincerely admire the Trump team's clever selection.

Vance has a lot of vote-attracting elements. He is a poor white man from the "Rust Belt" and agricultural areas, a best-selling author, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, a young man of only 40, and his wife Usha is of Indian descent.

As an independent candidate, Vance is certainly still immature, but as a partner and successor, Vance is the best candidate among millions.

Third, the assassination greatly expanded Trump’s loyal fans.

But is Trump really sure of victory?

A CNN reporter interviewed Trump immediately after Biden dropped out of the race. He said two things:

Biden is the worst president in American history.

It's much easier to beat Kamala Harris.

As I have said many times:Trump's biggest campaign enemy was himself. That's even more true now.

In June, FT Chinese published an analysis that shocked me. The article believed that Trump had hired a professional campaign team in this election, and that Trump had changed his previous self-willed, arrogant and domineering personal style, listened to the professional team and restrained his own behavior.

So, surprisingly, in this year's election, Trump's exaggerated and ridiculous emoticons and catchphrases have been significantly reduced, replaced by a more moderate and stable style: this is because the campaign team told him that the key is the middle-class voters, and his base is not enough to win the election.

One of the most surprising cases was his speech after the assassination, which focused on emphasizing unity and then thanking the Secret Service. He did not conspiratorially shift the blame to Biden.

If he continues on this path, Trump will be unmatched.

But these two comments are revealing.

Regardless, Biden's withdrawal from the race is a noble and dignified thing to do.

At this moment, even insincere praise for Biden can add points to him and gain the support of middle-class voters.

And Trump's underestimation of Kamala Harris further illustrates a problem: in the past six months, all of his campaign strategies have been based on Biden as the imaginary enemy. This strategy will have inertia, and he will unconsciously continue to target Biden's Democratic government, which will misplace his opponent.

These two sentences further fall into the Democratic Party’s strategy of Biden’s withdrawal from the election: to guide the ideological dispute between the two parties into a moral dispute.The Democratic Party represented by Biden takes the country as its sole interest and has noble character; while Trump will do anything to win the election.

This is the biggest risk of Trump's campaign. When Biden leaves, Trump will no longer have any rivals in his eyes. He may no longer accept the constraints of the campaign team, and will once again start the unscrupulous campaign career of the "Mad King" and the "King of Understanding", thus burying his own winning advantage.

Trump's assassination is not only a symbol of violent political confrontation, but also the opening of the possibility of social reconciliation. Voters from both parties may suddenly realize that:Perhaps confrontation is not that important. America's greatness still depends on unity and compromise.

This is what the aftermath of Trump’s assassination and the Republican convention were about: words of unity transcending partisan competition.

If Trump is going to lose, the only factor is himself.

04

Bismarck, the Chancellor of the German Empire, once said: Politics is the art of possibility, the art of feasibility, and the art of suboptimality. In the course of history, this sentence has been simplified to "Politics is the art of compromise."

The art of compromise has become the best interpretation of American politics.

The political struggles in the United States have never been gentle. During the founding generation of the United States, the struggles between Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Alexander later evolved into a life-and-death struggle of intrigue and scheming.

However, in their struggles, they all followed the principle that politics is the art of compromise, that is, all political struggles are resolved through procedures, legislation and justice. They all followed political ethics and never acted beyond dignity.

In other words, people tend to believe that there is no one idea that is eternal or unchangeable truth. People resolve political disputes through negotiation and compromise. This is also the ultimate truth of the US election every four years: even if it is wrong, endure it for four years and start all over again.

Congress, the president, and the judges can all be tolerated, and it is nothing more than a new group of people coming in after a while. But political consultation and compromise cannot be changed. No one is supreme, and no one has the final say in the truth.

The reason why I don't like or even hate Trump is,It's not because of his political platform, but because of his political behavior.

He trusted himself too much, undermined the principles of democracy, rejected political consultation, broke political compromise, and ultimately, he destroyed America's decent political ethics.

But even so, it doesn't matter. Because after 4 years, the United States can change its president again. After he lost the election in 2020, I understood this truth, so I felt much more relaxed when watching the US presidential election this year.

The question now is: Biden, by withdrawing from the election, has suddenly put the issue of political morality back at the core of American politics. He has suddenly reversed the discussion on issues such as the American recession, the plight of the people, the economic crisis, etc., and set the political direction back to the topic of the origin of politics.

How will Trump respond?

This is not his area of ​​expertise. His comfort zone is destruction, not construction. From this perspective, Biden's withdrawal from the election is a counterattack that puts Trump on the spot.

This US presidential election is becoming more and more thrilling, but also more and more interesting.