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After "struggling" for nearly a month, US President Biden withdrew from the election.

On July 21, local time, Biden released a letter to the American people on social media. After highly praising his own performance in office, Biden said that although he had always intended to seek re-election, "for the best interests of my party and country, I should withdraw from the election." He said that he would continue to perform his presidential duties until the end of his term. Later, Biden expressed his support for Vice President Harris's campaign for the 2024 US presidential election.

Biden, 81, has just been diagnosed with COVID-19. A campaign adviser to Biden's team told CNN that during his recovery, Biden consulted with his family and senior advisers by phone and made the final decision to withdraw from the race within the past 48 hours. The adviser said the president studied the data and was convinced that he would "drag down" the election and become an obstacle for the Democratic Party to defeat Trump.

As if to prove that Biden made the right choice, ActBlue, an online fundraising platform for the Democratic Party, said that within five hours of Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from the race, the platform raised $27.5 million in small donations. In addition, senior Democratic politicians and potential candidates, including California Governor Newsom, immediately expressed their support for Harris, showing a rare scene of party unity in the past month.

"The Democratic Party does have a chance to build unity now." On the evening of the 21st local time, John Zogby, a senior American polling expert and former senior adviser to the Belfer Center of Harvard University, was interviewed by China Newsweek after Biden withdrew from the election. He pointed out that Harris will face criticism from progressives within the party, but "I seriously doubt that anyone will challenge her at this late stage, and I believe that other possible candidates will soon support her for the sake of party unity. At this moment, anything that undermines party unity is fatal."

Biden: 'More anger'

Biden's withdrawal from the race has gradually become a high probability event since the televised debate with Trump on June 27. At that time, Biden's team hoped to change the negative impression of Biden's "old age and frailty" and reverse the unfavorable poll situation through this debate, which was held three months earlier than usual.

However, Biden's poor performance with unclear pronunciation, frequent verbal errors and confusing logic has led more and more Democratic lawmakers, sponsors and supporters to call on Biden to withdraw from the campaign. Subsequently, Biden tried to dispel doubts by holding press conferences, giving interviews and actively appearing at the NATO summit, but he made more mistakes, calling Ukrainian President Zelensky Putin and calling US Vice President Harris Trump.

"Biden needs to step down because the discussion about his health will not go away," Zogby told China Newsweek. "He is losing the support of Democratic lawmakers and leaders every day. His poll ratings continue to weaken. He was indeed considered the only candidate who could defeat Trump, but that opportunity slipped away after the TV debate."

In March of this year, in the first campaign ad released by Biden's team in swing states, Biden admitted, "It's no secret that I'm not a young man anymore. But the truth is, I know how to work for the American people." Trump's team then released a satirical ad called "I'm Not a Young Man Anymore," which featured embarrassing scenes of Biden tripping on the stairs, falling off his bike, and shaking hands with the air.

The Biden team tried to emphasize Biden's "rich experience", but this failed to convince the party and the outside world. "We hope that age will bring wisdom and experience to avoid mistakes, but it seems that this may also bring more mistakes." Doug Paal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who served in the Clinton administration, told China Newsweek.

Doug Paal pointed out that Biden has experienced a 40-year political career and is a senior politician. This experience means that he always wants to "try to make everyone happy". But in today's American society, "having both" no longer works, which has led to increasing dissatisfaction with Biden in American society. Biden's attempt to gain support from both pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian voters on his Gaza policy is an example. In the end, he encountered an unprecedented "no commitment" vote boycott in the Democratic primary, which put the Democratic Party's election situation in several key swing states into crisis.

The inability to mobilize the core voters and the loss of support from young voters have made many Democrats worried about Biden's election prospects and worried that this would drag down the Democratic Party's competition in Congress. The June 27 TV debate was just a reason for these people to speak out publicly. After the TV debate, senior Democrat Donna Brazile revealed in an interview with China Newsweek that some people in the party had long complained that if they did not change the candidate, they would be "missing the opportunity."

During the 2016 US election, Brazile served as the interim chairperson of the Democratic National Committee. At that time, she faced the choice of whether to replace Hillary with Biden. In the end, even though the morale of the Democratic campaign headquarters was "as low as an ice cellar", Brazile and other leaders decided to continue to support Hillary. But the failure of that election made many Democrats believe in 2024: the Democratic Party cannot make the same mistake again.

There are also views that Biden's poll performance is not as bad as the pro-Democratic media has claimed, and he is still capable of fighting Trump. The "wall-falling crowd pushes" scene is actually related to factional conflicts within the Democratic Party. In the last moments before Biden withdrew from the election, some Democrats even bought TV campaign ads and ran content calling on Biden to withdraw from the election.

The public split within the party shocked many senior Democratic analysts. Rumors circulated among supporters that Obama, Hillary, Pelosi and others had "backstabbed" Biden. These situations were in turn used by the Republicans, and Trump publicly mocked his old rival Pelosi for "betraying Biden like a dog." A commentary pointed out: "Every time the Democrats try to push Biden to withdraw from the election, they are losing the opportunity to defeat Trump."

In the final stage, Biden put up a fierce fight. He and his team repeatedly stated that they would "never withdraw from the election." However, as Doug Paal said, "A lot of times, politicians say this at the last minute, and then they leave."

When Biden decided to withdraw from the election, he called some Democrats who endorsed him in TV campaign ads on July 20 and 21. Some of them told the US media that Biden's voice was "a little sad, but more angry."

Will Harris make history?

Biden's withdrawal from the race and support for Harris also marks a historic moment. Harris, whose father is from Jamaica and mother is from India, is the first Asian American politician in American history to run for president on behalf of a major political party, and the first African American woman to have this opportunity.

Harris, 59, was Biden's rival in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. Later, Biden chose Harris as his running mate for reasons such as winning votes from minority and female voters.

Harris's special status will help stimulate the core voters to vote. When Obama ran for president in 2012, the voter turnout of black voters reached 66%, but when Hillary and Trump competed in 2016, the voter turnout of black voters was only 60%. On the evening of July 21, immediately after Biden announced his withdrawal from the election, six black Democratic attorneys general issued a joint statement supporting Harris' presidential campaign.

However, Zogby told China Newsweek that during the primary stage, Harris "will be attacked by progressives and some black and female voters" who believe that Harris does not reflect their special background.

In fact, among minority female politicians, Harris's establishment experience keeps her at a distance from the left wing of the Democratic Party. She obtained a JD degree from the University of California, San Francisco School of Law in her early years, and has been a practicing lawyer and local prosecutor since then. She served as California Attorney General for two six-year terms from 2011 until she was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2017.

Harris is highly appreciated by mainstream leaders within the Democratic Party and received support from Pelosi when she ran for California Attorney General and Senator. It is worth noting that Biden's campaign manager for the 2024 election, Julie Rodriguez, has a close relationship with Harris. Rodriguez served as the head of Harris' team when she was a California senator and during the 2020 presidential campaign.

On the other hand, Harris' voting record in the Senate is far from that of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, a representative of the progressive wing of the party. She also opposes the universal health care plan and wealth tax proposed by Sanders, a representative of the radical left. On the contrary, Trump's vice presidential candidate JD Vance has cooperated with Warren and other progressive Democrats in Senate proposals and votes. This is the subtlety of American bipartisan politics, but analysts generally believe that this will not affect the progressives' final vote for Harris.

On the evening of July 21, the vast majority of Senate Democrats immediately supported Harris' presidential campaign. According to US media reports, if Harris is confirmed as the Democratic presidential candidate to succeed Biden, she will most likely choose a white man as her running mate. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro and North Carolina Governor Cooper are both potential candidates. Among them, North Carolina, where Cooper is located, is one of the key swing states. Previous data shows that choosing a vice presidential candidate from a swing state may increase votes in the state by 2% to 3%.

Harris will prove herself to the party for the first time on the issue of campaign fundraising. According to July data, the Trump team has more available funds than the Biden team, but this is because some major Democratic donors have suspended their support for Biden. On the other hand, after Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, Trump said he felt Harris was an "easier" opponent to beat.

Author: Cao Ran

Editor: Xu Fangqing