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in the trading week that just passed (9.30~10.4), a-shares started to have a holiday after monday, while the hong kong stock market traded for 4 days (closed on national day), and it was very lively.

hong kong stocks are the leading indicator of this round of rise in a-shares. they started their rebound as early as september 11. therefore, their performance this week is also indicative of a-shares after the holiday.

hang seng index 4-day line

wind data shows:

the hang seng index rose 10.2% this week, rebounding by more than 31% since september 11, and rising by approximately 33.4% during the year.

the hang seng technology index rose by 17.38% this week, with a rebound of more than 50% since september 11, and an increase of approximately 38.9% during the year.

more importantly, after the recent continuous surge,the performance of the hong kong stock market during the year ranked first among the world's major indexes, ahead of the u.s. and japanese stock markets.

coincidentally, the nasdaq china golden dragon index also rose by 11.85% this week. taken together, chinese assets are undoubtedly at their peak moment.

so, under the optimistic expectation that a-shares "should make up for their gains" after the holidays, which sectors or directions have more opportunities to perform? we review and analyze from several angles.

1) real estate

flush data shows that the "mainland real estate [hk]" sector has a cumulative increase of 52.32% this week. a number of real estate stocks, including vanke, sunac china, and shimao group, saw average gains of more than 50%.

the highlight moment of the sector was october 2, when shimao group surged 153%, sunac china surged 75%, and vanke surged 61%.

in the following two days, the sector ushered in a correction after the surge. the good news is that it is still running above all moving averages.

in terms of news, after the market closed on september 30, beijing issued the "notice on further optimizing and adjusting the city's real estate-related policies" and launched 8 policies, which mentioned, "for households with two children or above to purchase real estate in this city, for commercial housing, if you apply for a provident fund personal housing loan, the loan limit will be increased by 400,000 yuan.”

according to a visit by a reporter from the beijing news, many real estate projects in beijing “feel the high popularity and excitement brought by the new deal.” the sales office has a constant flow of people, and both the number of visits and contract signings have increased significantly.

for the a-share real estate sector, which opened after the holiday, this news is “yet to be digested” and therefore has certain observation value.

2) chinese securities firms

the strength of hong kong brokerage stocks this week was even greater than that of real estate stocks.

the "chinese brokerage stocks [hk]" sector rose as high as 81.78% this week, with only one minor adjustment in four trading days.

among the constituent stocks, zhongzhou securities rose by more than 29%, guolian securities rose by more than 27%, shenwan hongyuan rose by more than 25%, everbright securities, china merchants securities, and htsc all rose by more than 10%.

looking over a long period of time, some stocks have doubled since october, and their gains during the year are also very impressive.

however, it should be noted that the stocks with the highest short-term gains went against the market on friday and experienced a certain correction.

according to reports, many securities firms have launched "no closing during the national day holiday", and investors are enthusiastic about opening accounts. many industry insiders said that as the recent stock market transactions continue to be hot, brokerage stocks, as the "bull market standard bearer", are expected to be the first to benefit.

3) semiconductors and medicine

on friday, hong kong stocks’ semiconductor sector and biotechnology stocks soared.

in the wind hong kong headphone industry index, the cumulative gains of these two sectors in the past five trading days are second only to diversified finance (the aforementioned chinese securities firm).

on the news, according to the financial associated press, us president biden recently signed legislation to accelerate semiconductor chip manufacturing projects, triggering a rise in the semiconductor sector.

some analysts say that since the start of the current round of hong kong stock market, heavyweight sectors such as real estate and finance have continued to surge, while sectors such as semiconductors and biomedicine once lacked financial attention. now that the market has rotated, it is also worthy of attention.

4) a/h share inversion situation

affected by factors such as differences in market structure and investor preferences, the stock prices of many companies' a shares have been higher than those of h shares for a long time. wind data shows that as of the close of last friday (september 27), the arithmetic mean of the ah share premium rate on the market was 105.81%, and the median was 82.2%.

at that time, only one stock had an ah stock inversion, and it was yihuatong-u.

after hong kong stocks "rose first to respect" this week, the premium rate of ah shares narrowed significantly, with the arithmetic mean falling to 81.6% and the median being 67.6%.

as of this friday (october 4), there were 5 ah inverted stocks on the market, namely: wuxi apptec, china merchants bank, midea group, vanke a and huatai securities, and the first three stocks were all inverted. about 10%.

some people believe that the price inversion of five leading stocks from the pharmaceutical, banking, home appliance, real estate and securities sectors occurred at the same time, which to a certain extent indicates that the market has entered a feverish stage; the inversion of stock prices is expected to push back related stocks and sectors. performance in a shares.

5) institutional perspective

dalio, founder of bridgewater associates, said that if china’s decision-makers can deliver on measures that “far exceed” their commitments, this round of economic stimulus measures will become a historic turning point. considering that chinese assets are still very cheap, multiple factors have jointly ignited the market's "animal spirits", and a large number of investors have entered the market to hunt for dips.

looking forward to the market outlook, institutions believe that hong kong stocks are more cost-effective than a-shares. as policies are implemented one after another, the performance of hong kong stocks is expected to be boosted. it is expected that the fourth quarter will be more likely to fluctuate upward.

as judged by gf securities, this round of sino-us policy resonance is expected to continue to increase coupled with domestic counter-cyclical policies. chinese stocks are facing a moment of counterattack, maintaining the view that hong kong stocks are more cost-effective than a-shares. judging from historical experience, the continued market performance of large-scale hong kong stocks depends on the realization of profits, such as the sustained and significant upward revision of the hang seng index eps.

lin rongxiong, chief strategist of sdic securities, suggested that investors should seize the layout opportunities in two major directions: overseas and securities companies. "the factors that suppress overseas pricing have gradually eased. combined with the continued boom in overseas exports and exports, the overseas industrial chain is likely to remain the main line of the boom in the third quarter report. the second wave of excess returns in overseas markets is worth allocating."

hualong securities believes that investors can focus on four major investment opportunities next, namely growth sectors including electronics, tmt, and machinery and equipment; investment opportunities in large consumer and real estate chain fields; related opportunities in the financial sector; and historical opportunities in the federal reserve industries that have performed better during the interest rate cut cycle, such as pharmaceuticals, biology and power equipment, etc.

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