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after the a-share market experienced an epic surge before the national day holiday, looking forward to the post-holiday market, wang yi, chief economist of great wall securities, said that the offensive market is not over yet.

wang yi pointed out that a package of policies in multiple fields has been launched, market sentiment and confidence have increased significantly, and the transaction volume before the holiday hit a new high. the current stock market has sufficient momentum to rise. the improvement in funding may lead to an overall increase in the trading volume of a-shares, and the recovery of the overall valuation of the stock market is still expected to continue.

"looking forward, we are still expected to continue to make efforts in fiscal policy, consumption stimulation, guaranteed delivery of buildings, 'purchase and storage', and the stabilization fund system in the fourth quarter." wang yi analyzed that in terms of fiscal policy, the politburo meeting clearly stated the need we will issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to better play the role of government investment in driving investment. the market is looking forward to further fiscal increases in the fourth quarter. in the fourth quarter, it is possible to "catch up" on completing this year's budget targets. active policies such as issuing additional special government bonds, further broadening the use of special bonds, and further stimulating consumption are worth looking forward to.

wang yi further pointed out that in terms of consumption policies, shanghai has announced that it will invest 500 million yuan in issuing service consumption vouchers. in the fourth quarter, other regions may also launch similar consumption vouchers or consumption subsidy policies. combined with other policies such as "lowering existing mortgage interest rates", it will help to release residents’ consumption power and boost social consumption levels. in terms of real estate, "stopping the decline and regaining stability" requires cooperation from many aspects. in addition to relaxing purchase restrictions, the work of ensuring the delivery of properties and "acquisition and storage" may continue to increase.

“in addition, the valuation of a-shares is still low, and it still has a high price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds. in addition, the federal reserve has started an interest rate cut cycle, china’s monetary and fiscal space has opened up, and real estate policy expectations have increased. we believe that the upward trend of this round of market has not yet continued. change." wang yi said.

however, wang yi also emphasized that in the future, as market sentiment becomes calmer and the test of the third-quarter performance period is about to come, the market may gradually shift from general gains to differentiation after the national day holiday. after the national day, we need to pay close attention to fiscal efforts, especially whether the increase in the deficit ratio and the issuance of special government bonds will be implemented during the year, as well as whether larger-scale consumption stimulation will be implemented.

"from a medium-term perspective, we need to wait and see how the economic fundamentals improve after the implementation of a package of countercyclical adjustment policies, and pay close attention to whether profit growth can stabilize and pick up in the fourth quarter." wang yi said.

in terms of allocation, wang yi suggested that investors pay attention to four main lines.

one is real estate. since the politburo meeting’s statement on stabilizing real estate exceeded expectations and real estate policies in various places are still being implemented, it is recommended to seize the bottom rebound opportunity of the real estate sector and related chains.

the second is non-bank finance. it is recommended to pay attention to large financial sectors such as securities firms, financial it, and insurance that directly benefit from the recovery in stock market trading volume and risk appetite, as well as direct favorable policies.

the third is big consumption. benefiting from the expected introduction of policies such as boosting domestic demand and stimulating consumption, the valuation restoration of the large consumer sector is expected to continue, especially the direction of early stagflation and the direction supported by performance or industry policies.

the fourth is hong kong stocks internet and consumption. hong kong stocks may gain more flexibility in the global interest rate cut cycle. with the net inflow of southbound funds this year hitting a new high in the past three years, hong kong stocks may rebound even more strongly. coupled with the fact that the hong kong stock market continues to trade during the national day holiday, wang yi suggested that investors continue to pay attention to the internet, consumption and other sectors of hong kong stocks that benefit from domestic policy boosts and improved consumption expectations.