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01

i plan to write a short article today, not so long.

i wrote the previous article at 3 o'clock in the morning. it was 6,200 words long and eloquent. i was so tired that i couldn't relax for half a day in the morning.

at this time, i believe that many friends are like bloggers. on the way back to their hometown, i don’t know what kind of transportation you are taking. if it is a high-speed rail, have you changed to a business seat? if it's a plane, have you upgraded to a cabin?

why do i say that? if you are a stock investor, i believe you understand.

since the central bank released the "three major policies" on september 24, the stock market has been like a bull in heat, singing all the way. the shanghai composite index has soared from more than 2,700 points to more than 3,300 points today. in just 7 days, the increase has been as high as 22%. , the entire stock market was red, redder and more festive than the new year lanterns.

so many netizens called for no holiday during the national day. i am willing to go to work normally and let the stock market open instead of closing.

in the past few days, people's mood has been high and their fighting spirit has been high. the financial management group that has been dormant for a long time has become active.

almost all financial media and major website hot search topics are singing praises. even the people's daily said, "a-share transactions exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan throughout the day! a record high." earned 520,000" voices are heard endlessly.

china's stock market is booming, and i worked directly from icu to ktv, and i still have money to order mm.

those who are in the game are very happy, and those who are outside are very regretful.

02

the blogger is that outsider, and i am ashamed to say that i have never believed that a-shares can rise. over the years, i have watched my colleagues around me sink into the quagmire and suffer so much that i am glad that i have not opened an a-share account, which saves me a lot of anxiety.

faced with this surge, i have no regrets.

i was chatting with a client a few days ago. he is a senior stock investor. he invested more than 8 million in a-shares. as a result, he lost more than 5 million in the past two years. i don’t know how much he has recovered this time. in short, everyone needs to understand. , for most investors, the money earned today is to repay the debt owed in the previous period.

this debt is bloody.

there are 200 million stockholders in china, which means there are still 1.2 billion people who don’t trade in stocks. they don’t even know what the stock market is or how many stock exchanges there are. for ordinary people who don’t trade in stocks, the stock market has gone up. , what impact does it have on your life?

i guess that's what everyone wants to know.

everyone should have heard the saying that the stock market is a barometer of the economy.

translated, it means that if the stock market is good, the economy will be positive. if the stock market is not good, there is a high probability that the economy will also suffer. in the past two years, the a-share market has fallen like this. i won’t say much about our economy. everyone should be aware of it.

why?

let me give you some data. in the past few days, the total market value of a-shares has jumped from 74.98 trillion yuan to 84.86 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to an increase in market value of about 10 trillion yuan. if it is distributed equally to each shareholder, everyone will make almost the same amount. 47,000 yuan.

of course, there is no egalitarianism in real life, only the 80/20 rule.

a very small number of corporate shareholders, investors, and senior players occupy the vast majority of the shares in the a-share market, while other retail investors eat the rest of the cake.

however, everyone needs to understand that the 10 trillion added market value here is real cash, and investors can sell it and use it as money. however, due to policy reasons, some people cannot sell it all at once.

but one thing is money.

suppose you are a factory owner and your net worth has increased by 20% out of thin air in just a few days. you were worried about where your employees’ wages will come from next month. well, you don’t have to worry about it now. not only do you not have to worry about it, you can also go to europe during the national day. trip.

however, the actual increase of the owners and shareholders of listed companies is beyond everyone’s imagination. it may cost hundreds of millions or even billions. going to europe will be inexhaustible. at this time, i thought of the new expansion project that i had planned before. is it possible? take it out and study it further?

so we invested money to build two more factories to expand production capacity. to expand production capacity, we need to recruit people, and the employment problem will be solved.

for ordinary retail investors, the stock market doesn't make much money, but mosquitoes are still meat, and they can earn thousands of dollars in just a few days. do they dare to order two more dishes for dinner at night, or go to scenic spots? if you dare to ride the cable car, the overall consumption will increase and the economy will be boosted.

of course, it is difficult for a short-term bull market to quickly drive the economy to take off. isn’t this the first hot search question today: “will stocks plunge after the national day?”, which is the soul question of investors.

at this point, everyone should know that when the stock market rises, investors have money in their hands. with money in their hands, a group of 200 million people dare to consume and invest, thus alleviating the current economic weakness.

the current economic problem in our country is that no one dares to consume or invest.

03

is it possible to rely solely on the stock market to save the economy?

it's definitely not enough.

the stock market is a financial policy, and it also needs the cooperation of fiscal policy. without the real economy, financial policy is just a castle in the air, and it will fall down when the wind blows.

no, just yesterday shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen introduced the latest real estate policies. guangzhou announced the complete cancellation of house purchase restrictions, shenzhen canceled purchase restrictions in non-core areas, and reduced down payment ratios. shanghai reduced the number of social security years required for home purchases and reduced down payment ratios.

moreover, the people's bank of china announced that it will complete the policy of reducing existing mortgage interest rates by october 31, so everyone's monthly mortgage loan can be reduced again.

in fact, everyone knows that real estate policies have been adjusted in the past year. from the previous 30% down payment for a first home, it was reduced to 20%, and then to 15%. many cities are gradually relaxing purchase restrictions. the same is true for loan interest rates, which have been reduced again and again. drop.

it's just that the initial effect was not obvious. after a few operations, it was still so bearish and tepid. the people just said that they understood it, but they didn't take any action.

this real estate policy is like running naked. in the early stage, it was like sexy underwear. it was taken off but there were still two strips of cloth hanging on it. now it is wearing nothing. if this card cannot be played again, the house may really become zero down payment and zero interest rate.

at this point, some people may say that with the rise of first-tier cities, can china's real estate be good?

in fact, we should think about it the other way around. if the front line can't get up, the second line will be even more hopeless. just like the reform and opening up in the past, the first-tier cities will drive the latter to get richer. first-tier cities have a siphon effect. there are young people and industries, which can activate the first-tier real estate market. if the first-tier cities can be stabilized, the second-tier cities will be better.

real estate is the engine of china's economy.

there are too many real industries involved, including upstream and downstream cement and steel bars, building materials and appliances for home decoration. if they can rise, then the foundation will be stable. only with the financial regulation policies issued by the state can the overall economy have a chance to rise.

the stock market may have a rainbow, rather than a sudden one.

04

whether consumption can improve depends on another important factor besides whether people have money in their hands.

that is "confidence".

as of the end of 2023, the total deposits of chinese residents have reached 137 trillion, and the average deposit per person has increased to approximately 98,000 yuan. if a simple conversion is performed using a family of three as an example, the deposits of a family will be close to 300,000 yuan.

note, what we are talking about here is the deposits placed in the bank, and does not include fixed assets such as cars, houses, and shops bought by everyone.

what is the concept of 137 trillion? you must know that china's gdp in 2023 will only be 126 trillion, so bai yansong asked a few months ago:why don’t ordinary people consume when they are so rich?

as a result, he was scolded miserably by netizens.

everyone feels aggrieved and feels completely inconsistent. where can we have money? who has money but doesn’t know how to spend it? but there is no doubt about the data here. except for the 80/20 rule, a large amount of wealth is in the hands of a few people, but generally speaking, ordinary people still have some money in their hands. why don't they feel rich?

or it comes from expectations for the future.

in the past, when the situation was good, no matter how high the house price was, i dared to use leverage to buy it. with a monthly salary of 10,000 yuan, i could not wait to repay a monthly loan of 8,000 yuan, because i knew that wages would rise in the future, and house prices would also rise.

as a result, the past two years have failed. house prices have been falling again and again, and my job has been laid off. although i have a little money, i can prepare for emergencies. i used to add an egg to beef noodles, but now you can also eat noodles with clear soup. there is nothing without eggs. even if you eat one less, you can bear it.

the sharp rise in a-shares this time is like a sudden and timely rain for crops that have been dry for a long time. it may not have penetrated into the soil, but at least there is hope.

by the way, i still have confidence.

05

someone also asked, blogger, what do you think of the trend of a-shares after the national day? i haven’t entered the market yet. is it too late to buy a ticket now?

you think too highly of me.

how can this thing be predicted? if a blogger has this ability, why bother writing articles, go directly to work in a securities company, manipulate capital, achieve financial freedom, and reach the pinnacle of life? if it is really not possible, you can learn from him. .

yes, wake up.

however, we can analyze it.

the economic problems of any country are comprehensive problems. to improve the situation, it is not enough to adjust one variable alone. it requires a combination of indicators. all indicators are adjusted together to form a coordination, just like gears, they must fit together tightly.

take the economy as an example. people must first have money. after they have money, they will use it for consumption. consumption transfer will drive industrial development, and industrial development will drive project investment. with investment, employment will be solved. after employment, everyone will have money again. go to consumption, and then benefit everyone, forming a positive cycle, and only then can the national economy develop.

and the stock market is just one part of it.

if the a-share market is really about to usher in a real bull market, investors will have a wealth effect after making money, and then actively consume and buy houses, driving the macroeconomy and forming a virtuous cycle in which the stock market and the economy achieve each other.

in this way, the stock market can truly continue its self-circulation.

however, looking at the performance of the stock market in the past few days, it has not yet reached this point. the current stage is the result of forced blood transfusions due to national financial controls.

this reminds me of how the walking tractor was started in the village when i was a child. it requires the elders to hold the handle with their hands and shake it hard. after shaking it to a certain speed and time, the tractor can sound and then make a rumbling sound. sound.

our stock market is like that handle. whether it can be shaken depends on how hard it is and how long it takes. it also depends on whether the tractor is healthy internally and whether there are any problems.

however, we don’t need to be too anxious at these levels. judging from the current national macro policies, they are improving step by step. this time, it seems that we have made up our minds.

what we have to do is to take advantage of the national day to go out and have fun and stimulate a wave of consumption for the country.