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the truth behind the sudden surge in the stock market! what to do after the holidays?

2024-10-05

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no journey in life is in vain.

if god leaves you for even one day, then you will not lose your life.

even when you hit rock bottom, you have to look up at the stars.

walking in darkness still looking forward to light.

things must be reversed if things go to extremes, otherwise things will be peaceful and peaceful!

china's stock market is like a long-dormant hero, jumping to the top of the bright sky again!

as soon as the u.s. dollar cut interest rates, the policy to support the development of the capital market and the central bank's and cai's father's continuous release of water took advantage of the trend. in just 5 days, the stock index skyrocketed by nearly 600 points, which was rare in the a-share market in 30 years. the chinese stock market continued to the super news of skyrocketing prices quickly dominated the global media headlines!

i believe that in this short five-day surge, some people have made a lot of money, while others have lost money. but the soaring excitement continues, and investor passions have been ignited.

however, many people are beginning to be afraid of such a crazy increase! if you don’t have a position and your position is empty, you want to make money but don’t dare to pursue it. if you enter and have a position, will it continue to skyrocket? what is the target of this bull market? how long will it last?

the following analysis is for everyone:

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the internal and external difficulties faced by china's stock market and economic growth

1. external factors:

once upon a time, do you still remember? leading companies in various industries in china such as midea, gree, glodon, leading intelligence, cti, oriental yuhong, venus, han's laser and other leading companies in various industries in china have been bought up by foreign investors to the upper limit of 28%, triggering the buying suspension mechanism.

before the u.s. dollar cut interest rates, china's stock market had been in sluggish territory for two consecutive years and its economy was sluggish. foreign institutions, led by blackrock group, which had heavily invested in the chinese stock market, also suffered heavy losses like chinese investors. after being trapped, they continued to buy and spread the cost, but they still could. there was no way to buy out the stocks despite the continued decline, and in the end i had to curse and leave the market. foreign-funded institutions continued to have a net outflow in nine months of this year, and they were forced out by china.

friends should also be deeply impressed. today, china’s food and beverages, chemicals, beauty and cosmetics, daily necessities, medicines and traditional chinese medicines, pork, beer, grain seeds, vegetables, etc. have long been acquired by foreign consortiums. however, it is difficult for chinese capital to completely harvest foreign investment. got it!

during the skyrocketing market price in the last five days of september, foreign-funded institutions were short-circuited and unable to buy to the bottom!

perhaps they never dreamed that this was a combination that china had been planning and holding back for a long time. it was unable to pull it off before the u.s. dollar cut interest rates. now the strategic curtain has finally begun.

once and now, the united states is still the most developed and largest capital market in the world, and china's strategy is to replace it. perhaps in the near future in 5-10 years, china will eventually become the largest, most influential and attractive capital market in the world. china will have huge capital strength to support china's technological innovation and manufacturing industry upgrading.

2. internal factors:

in the past, real estate was china's largest economic pillar and source of tax revenue. in recent years, there has been a glut of real estate, and new sources of tax revenue have been replaced by the manufacturing industry. however, if the manufacturing industry relies solely on bank support, except for state-owned enterprises that enjoy resource advantages, it will be difficult for most private enterprises to obtain financing and develop.

therefore, the country has set the goal of becoming a financial power. the first task is to develop the stock market. after the stock market rises, bank deposits will be moved to the stock market. 200 million investors will have the confidence to return to the stock market to trade. people will become rich and have money to consume, which will stimulate the consumer economy. with a daily transaction volume of more than 2 trillion yuan, stamp duties will increase exponentially. official data this year reported that stamp duties fell by more than 50%, turning the tide once the bull market came.

prospering the stock market, stimulating consumption, increasing taxation, achieving the goal of becoming a financial power, and increasing national income and patriotic passion will be important drivers of china's development strategy in the new era of the 21st century.

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post-holiday market trends, rising targets and operating strategies:

the latest three major news:

1. the hong kong stock exchange will reduce stamp duty again.

this good news not only directly brings super benefits to hong kong stocks, but also stimulates the rise of a shares. supported by china's major policies to activate the stock market, hong kong stocks and a-shares have surged in tandem since the end of september.

the hong kong stock market remained closed and began to adjust and fluctuate violently after achieving six consecutive positive days. however, chinese securities stocks still bucked the trend and rose sharply. shenwan hongyuan's h shares soared 30%, and other chinese securities stocks rose sharply.

it is expected that a-shares will open higher on tuesday, the 8th after the holiday, and then fall back. the nearly 600-point rise in the week before the holiday is too large for a short period of time, and it will also open lower and enter adjustment on wednesday.

2. the latest requirements of the national academy of sciences: cultivate and strengthen patient long-term capital to enter the stock market, break through institutional obstacles, improve the assessment and evaluation mechanism, and provide stable long-term investment for the capital market and technological innovation.

3. the ministry of finance issued the "notice on guiding long-term steady investment of insurance funds and adjusting relevant indicators for performance evaluation of state-owned commercial insurance companies", which clarified that the operating efficiency performance evaluation indicator "return on net assets" of state-owned commercial insurance companies will be adjusted from the current year's assessment it is an assessment method that combines "3-year cycle + current year".

4. add new funds and start queuing again:

before and after the holidays, people have to queue for three hours to open this wave. mainly those born in the 1985s and 1990s. their funds can only be transferred to their accounts after the holidays. this is a new generation force. as long as they can make money, the money will come quickly. , who says young people don’t trade in stocks?

in addition, before the holiday, the central bank pan gongsheng promised to invest 500 billion in batches into huijin and securities finance, which are the main players in the stock market. the countless 300 billion in batches to borrow money to buy back shares and increase shareholdings of listed companies will also be invested. they entered the market one after another; in addition, foreign investors who were short-lived were furious and also rushed to enter the market. will the above three financial forces gather together to detonate the post-holiday stock market?

such super-intense incremental funds and support for the long-term development of the stock market have allowed the chinese stock market to surpass the united states and eventually become the largest capital market with global voice. only in this way can it be called a true financial power. this wave of bull market decisions under the national strategic plan not only in three or two years, but also in the next ten years, we can expect great things!

operation strategy:the prudent strategy is to take advantage of the high opening after the holiday, sell high to reduce positions, stop the fall after a pullback, and then buy low.

index running target:

opening the monthly line of the shanghai stock index, the stock index is currently oscillating in the range of 2600-3700, so there is resistance at the upper pressure level of 3700 points. after the holiday, the stock index is expected to open high around 3,500 points and then fall back. it will open lower and adjust from wednesday. after the market is shaken and shaken, it will rise to the first target of 3,700 points. after another shock and wash, once the heavy volume breaks through 3700 points, the upside space will be opened, and the second target of 4000 points can be seen.

international investment banks such as goldman sachs, jpmorgan chase, morgan stanley, blackrock, and vanguard, which have always been good at playing in the international capital market, have always suppressed and belittled the chinese stock market. the economic, military, political, and financial war between china and the united states has never stopped.

but since the end of september, after china's stock market continued to rise for a week, they began to sing too much when they were short. it also predicts that a shares still have 15% room for growth, which is around 3,800 points.

however, the chinese stock market is not something that speculators like them can predict. china’s goal of becoming a financial power will definitely be achieved. it is a national strategic turning point. with the full support of the central government and the financial father, once the bull market elephant really starts to dance, perhaps the real first target will rise to 6,000. , 8000-10000 points is not a dream.

important opportunities and risk control after the holidays:

the ranking of net inflows of funds into each main line sector on the last day before the holiday:

from the above ranking of net capital inflows, we can see that securities diversified finance internet finance and fintech are still the first allocation, followed by hongmeng, software, and technology computing power!

let’s talk about opportunities first:

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big finance

when the bull market starts, the first person to benefit is the flag bearer. from the ranking of the main net inflows of funds, diversified finance, internet finance, financial technology, and securities are still the first allocations of the main line weights.

yinzhijie, tianfeng securities, hengyin technology, citic securities, oriental fortune,guohai, yangtze river, and bank of china are still the first and second-tier leaders, but the combination of financial technology + securities + state-owned enterprise reform + net-breaking stocks + small caps and small market capitalizations has the best flexibility and large space. don’t get off easily when holding securities assets unless you increase the volume. if you adjust after a sharp drop, you must take profits in a timely manner.

diversified financial front row: minmetals capital, hongye futures, cnpc capital, avic industrial finance, yuexiu capital

insurance front row attention: tianmao group, ping an of china, xinhua insurance

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hongmeng os + software

huawei is by no means content with being the second largest operating system in the country. in order to fully realize domestic substitution in industry, commerce, government and enterprises and bring hongmeng operating system to the world, the market advancement of hongmeng, which has exceeded 900 million end-of-life products, will be accelerated.

front faucet:changshan beiming

the relay leader that was hit by continuous daily limit after adjustment for a few daysrunhe softwaredriven by the main force's net inflow (the main force's net inflow was nearly 1.9 billion on the friday before the holiday), changshan once again made a strong pull before the ming dynasty (the main force's net outflow exceeded 900 million).

second row attention: guohua network security, farben information, montnets technology, kelan software, tianyuan dico

software focus: watson coopers, airong software, china software

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destruction, restructuring and state-owned enterprise reform:

when the bull market starts, it may eliminate ultra-low-priced stocks and net-breaking stocks below 10 yuan. the superposition concept of low-price + restructuring + state-owned enterprise reform + net-breaking stocks has the greatest room for growth. you can pay attention to:

xincheng holdings, jilin aodong, shuangcheng pharmaceutical, hefei urban construction, qitian technology

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later relay configuration:

after the liquor oversold and rebounded continuously, as the top three low-performance leaders in the large consumer medicine, medical equipment, food and beverage, medical beauty and other sectors, it will continue to have a mid-line rising market during the major financial adjustment.

pharmaceutical leader:bailey tianheng, wuxi apptec, changchun high-tech

medical device faucet: mindray medical, opconvision, xinmai medical

medical beauty faucet: aimeike, bettany, aier eye clinic

duty-free leader: china duty free, wangfujing