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the annual national day holiday is not only a consumption feast, but also a lens of economic vitality and a barometer of market confidence. during the long holiday, securities times reporters went deep into the front lines and visited the property market, automobile market, gold, mobile phones, liquor, catering, tourism and other industries, and launched a series of reports on "national day consumption survey" for the benefit of readers.

huaqiangbei is known as "china's no. 1 electronics street". during this year’s national day golden week, driven by shenzhen’s trade-in subsidy policy and new mobile phones such as huawei mate xt and apple iphone 16, huaqiangbei also ushered in a consumption boom, with major squares crowded with consumers.

huaqiang north manha digital plaza has a dense flow of people. an yufei/photo

the reporter learned in huaqiangbei that huawei's three-fold mobile phone mate xt master is still "hard to find". some models have scalpers increasing the price by 4,000 yuan. the same is true for the iphone 16 series. many apple stores in huaqiangbei require a price increase to buy it in stock. some models have a price increase of more than 1,000 yuan.

new huawei and apple phones are “hard to find in stock”

"the tri-fold mobile phone is not currently available in stores. there are displays at vientiane tiandi and taikoo shing in bao'an. however, it is not in stock anywhere now. you need to make an appointment online to grab it. you also have to pay a premium to buy it online. scalpers are all here. speculation." a salesperson told reporters at a huawei authorized experience store in huaqiangbei.

it is understood that huawei’s mate many huawei authorized experience stores in shenzhen are not only "out of stock", but also "out of stock" of display models.

when will tri-folding phones stop being out of stock? the above-mentioned salesperson shared his experience with reporters: "if you see anything on jd.com, taobao, or tmall that is not an official store, the price will be very high, which means there is a shortage of goods offline. when should you just increase the price? one or two hundred, or the same price as the official website, means it’s not out of stock offline and you can buy it.”

"it's still uncertain when the store will have the goods. the news i heard is that only 1 million units will be shipped this year, but the number of reservations has exceeded 7 million before, so the goods are very tight." the salesperson told reporters .

then the reporter came to the huawei flagship store in shenzhen vientiane world. the staff told the reporter: "the three-fold mobile phone is indeed out of stock, but i have not heard that the supply this year will be 1 million units. this has not been officially notified." the reporter saw as of today, the booth of huawei's mate xt extraordinary master mobile phone has been surrounded by consumers on "three floors inside and three outside", which is enough to prove the popularity of this mobile phone.

at the huawei flagship store in vientiane world, the exhibition area for tri-fold mobile phones is crowded with consumers. an yufei/photo

if there is no product available through official channels, what will happen to the scalpers? at the seg plaza in huaqiangbei, a scalper told reporters that the price of huawei mate xt master is now generally increased by 3,000-4,000 yuan, and the ruihong color premium is higher than that of black.

many stores have signs saying "high price recycling" of mate xt and iphone 16. an yufei/photo

take the 1tb version of huawei mate "in the past, people bought hundreds of thousands of units. because the production capacity of this mobile phone cannot keep up, the supply will always exceed demand, and the price will not come down so fast." the above-mentioned scalper told reporters.

why is it that huawei’s first three-fold mobile phone is still “hard to find” more than half a month after it was released? yuan shuai, deputy secretary-general of the zhongguancun internet of things industry alliance, said in an interview with a securities times reporter: "mate "

in addition to huawei, the iphone 16 series is also out of stock. a staff member of an apple store in huaqiangbei told reporters: "now all models and colors are available in the store, but they all require a price increase. places that don't increase prices are out of stock."

the reporter found that the iphone 16 basic series in the above-mentioned stores has a premium ranging from 600 yuan to 900 yuan, and the iphone 16 pro series has a premium ranging from 1,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. the same situation exists at another apple store, but the premium is different. the iphone 16 pro series can be purchased for an additional 800 yuan.

in an apple store in huaqiangbei, iphone 16 series generally require "price increase". an yufei/photo

in the second-hand market, there are also many stores that "recycle" the iphone 16 series at high prices. however, the quotations provided by some stores to reporters show that the second-hand hong kong version of the iphone 16 series has generally fallen below the issue price, with price cuts ranging from 49 yuan to 1,049 yuan. only some colors of some models need to be purchased at a higher price.

the hong kong iphone 16 quotation obtained by the reporter. an yufei/photo

what is the difference between the china version and the hong kong version of iphone 16? the owner of the above-mentioned store said: "the chinese version of iphone 16 does not support apple intelligence (apple artificial intelligence) function, but the hong kong version does. the chinese version of magsafe wireless charging only supports up to 15w, and the hong kong version supports 25w power."

the reporter checked apple's official website and learned that the iphone 16 series is currently ordered on the official website. the shenzhen area is expected to pick up the goods around october 9, while the iphone 16 pro series is expected to be picked up from october 23 to october 30.

self-owned brand mobile phones rush into the high-end market

"huawei's mate the demand for the product is strong," lin xianping, executive deputy secretary-general of the china urban expert think tank committee, said in an interview with a securities times reporter.

huawei's mate lin xianping believes that the success of chinese mobile phone brands in the field of folding screens will help enhance their brand image and competitiveness in the high-end market.

counterpoint believes that the emergence of huawei mate xt is a "touchstone" for two important issues in the smartphone industry. the first is whether the average selling price (asp) in the chinese market can continue to rise: if huawei mate upside potential. the second is whether the growth momentum of foldable smartphones can be revived by new designs.

at present, the market space for domestic high-end mobile phones is gradually opening up. idc data shows that in the second quarter of 2024, the market share of high-end mobile phones above us$600 (approximately rmb 4,211) increased by nearly 3% year-on-year, while the share of the mid-range price band from us$200 to us$400 (approximately rmb 1,404 to 2,807 yuan) increased by nearly 3% year-on-year. the corresponding year-on-year decrease was nearly 3%, which confirmed that the high-end market’s incremental space has begun to be released.

folding screen mobile phones have become an upstart in the high-end market in recent years. according to idc data, in the second quarter of 2024, china's foldable screen mobile phone shipments reached 2.57 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and the growth rate far exceeded the average level of the smartphone industry.

according to statistics from reporters, major independent brands such as huawei, xiaomi, honor, vivo, and oppo are all working on the folding screen track, and even apple is also deploying folding screen mobile phones. yuan shuai believes that as folding screen technology continues to mature and costs decrease, folding screen mobile phones will become an important part of the high-end mobile phone market.

on the folding screen track, domestic manufacturers have a clear first-mover advantage. idc data shows that in the second quarter of 2024, in china's folding screen mobile phone market, huawei ranked first with a market share of 41.7%, while vivo and honor ranked second and third with market shares of 23.1% and 20.9% respectively. name. oppo ranked fourth with a market share of 8.4%, and xiaomi ranked sixth with a market share of 1.4%.

although domestic manufacturers have gained a place in the high-end mobile phone market by relying on folding screens, there are still many challenges in truly winning the high-end market. yuan shuai said that high-end market consumers have higher requirements for brand awareness and image. domestic manufacturers need to enhance brand awareness and image by improving product quality, strengthening brand building and marketing publicity.

angel investor and senior artificial intelligence expert guo tao said in an interview with a securities times reporter that chinese mobile phone manufacturers need to make efforts in multiple dimensions such as technology and ecology to enter the high-end market: at the technical level, they need to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies such as chips and operating systems. , reducing external dependence; in terms of ecosystem construction, manufacturers are required to not only provide high-quality hardware, but also create a rich software ecosystem and service experience.

"competition in the high-end mobile phone market often involves supply chain control and cost control. domestic manufacturers need to strengthen supply chain management and reduce production costs to improve market competitiveness." yuan shuai said.

wang peng, an associate researcher at the beijing academy of social sciences, said in an interview with a securities times reporter: "compared with folding screens, i think ai technology is more promising to help chinese mobile phone manufacturers gain a foothold in the high-end market. ai technology can be applied to many aspects of mobile phones, such as intelligent recognition, voice assistants, camera optimization, etc. can improve the user experience and the intelligence level of mobile phones. although the folding screen technology is unique, there are still some technical difficulties and cost issues that require further research and development. "

"trade-in-for-old" triggers national day phone buying craze

counterpoint research data shows that china’s smartphone market sales increased by 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, showing signs of recovery. counterpoint predicts that the annual sales volume of china’s smartphone market will exceed 270 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of more than 3%.

the recovery and recovery of mobile phone consumption is also inseparable from the efforts of local policies. taking shenzhen as an example, on september 6, shenzhen released the "shenzhen super-long-term special treasury bond funds to boost the trade-in of consumer goods implementation plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "plan"), which included mobile phones and other products into the scope of trade-in for home appliances.

it is understood that shenzhen provides subsidies for individual consumers to purchase three types of products, including mobile phones, tablet computers, and smart wearable devices. each consumer can subsidize 1 product of each type. the mobile phone subsidy standard is 10% of the product sales price, and each product the subsidy shall not exceed 1,000 yuan (the sales price shall be based on the tax-included price of the product sales invoice).

the reporter visited the offline stores of major mobile phone brands during the national day and learned that mainstream mobile phone brands such as huawei, honor, xiaomi, vivo, and oppo have all participated in this round of "old for new" activities in shenzhen.

offline stores such as jd electric appliances have also become the main force in promoting "old-for-new" subsidies, and have also launched "jd subsidies" on the basis of shenzhen subsidies. a salesperson at jd appliances’ huaqiangbei store told reporters that whether it is mobile phones, tablets, drones or home appliances such as refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, etc., jd appliances has offered another discount on the basis of the “old for new” policy subsidy, and the price has dropped by 15% - 25%. the salesperson said: “after double subsidies, the prices of some products are directly discounted by 50 to 40%.”

jingdong electric huaqiang north store. an yufei/photo

in the huaqiangbei store of jd appliances, a consumer told reporters: "i seem to have only heard of subsidies for home appliances before. this time, mobile phones are also subsidized, so i came over to change a mobile phone for the elderly at home." at the scene, there were staff helping the customer consumers grabbed "immediate discount coupons" for mobile phone purchase subsidies. it is understood that shenzhen currently issues 10,000 mobile phone subsidy coupons every day, and only those who grab the coupons can get the subsidy.

the reporter found that a xiaomi mi 14 ultra 1tb version of the mobile phone priced at 7,299 yuan (xiaomi officially reduced the price by 500 yuan) was given a 200 yuan discount at the jd electric huaqiang north store, and the price was 7,099 yuan. shenzhen mobile phone subsidies can also be added to the price. to 6389 yuan, the total discount exceeds 900 yuan.

jingdong electric’s booth prompted mobile phone purchase subsidies. an yufei/photo

however, not all models and all stores are eligible to participate in this event. a staff member of a xiaomi authorized experience store in huaqiangbei told reporters: "this subsidy should be available in larger officially authorized stores, but it does not include newly launched mobile phones. for example, the redmi note 14 series does not have this discount." an apple store the store staff told reporters: "we cannot use this discount here. even if you go to a store that can use this discount, they will not have the goods."

at present, many regions across the country have implemented the home appliance trade-in policy, including more than 20 regions such as hunan, guangdong, and jiangsu. taking shanghai as an example, since the implementation of the "implementation rules of the shanghai municipality's home consumption subsidy policy to strengthen support for green smart home appliances" on september 7, as of september 30, there were nearly 1,000 offline stores in shanghai participating in the home appliance trade-in policy, offering trade-in subsidies. it has driven the city's home appliance sales to 700 million yuan, and more than 30,000 home appliance product categories have been included in the trade-in subsidy product library.

zhu keli, executive director of the china information association and founding director of the guoyan new economic research institute, said in an interview with reporters: "the old-for-new policy is of practical significance to the modern consumer market and economic development. it not only adapts to changes in development stages, but also promotes the consumer market to shift from meeting basic needs to the pursuit of higher quality also provides consumers with a smoother replacement channel.”

yuan shuai said: "the launch of official 'trade-in' activities for common consumer goods such as mobile phones, computers, and home appliances can stimulate consumers' desire to buy. however, various localities also need to improve their recycling and processing systems to ensure the recycling, dismantling, and dismantling of old equipment and consumer goods. reuse and other aspects are carried out smoothly. establish a sound recycling network and processing facilities to improve recycling efficiency and processing levels and reduce environmental pollution and resource waste.”

zhu keli believes that the core significance of the "old-for-new" policy is to speed up the replacement of durable consumer goods through policy guidance and financial support, thereby promoting industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading. the trade-in policy has a significant impact on the entire industry chain, from upstream raw material suppliers to manufacturers and retailers to downstream recycling and dismantling companies, all of which can benefit to varying degrees.

editor: wan jianyi

proofreading: su huanwen

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