hong kong stocks retreated after rising high, and the market outlook depends on the implementation of policies and changes in fundamentals
2024-10-03
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after two consecutive weeks of accelerated growth, hong kong stocks opened higher and moved lower on october 3, falling 3.12% in the morning, with the hang seng index closing at 21,743 points. after experiencing the crazy 6.2% surge in a single day on october 2, many brokerage firms have said that the number of account openings has increased. some sales departments need to queue up to open accounts, and some investors place orders for hong kong stocks by "buying directly without asking the price." .
industry insiders told china business news that hong kong stocks rose rapidly because overseas funds had been bearish for a long time, leading to a downturn that lasted for more than three years. with the fed's unexpected interest rate cut and the mainland's unexpected policy combination, short sellers it was quickly covered in a short period of time, and some investors placed orders to buy regardless of the cost.
market participants believe that looking forward to the future, investors need to avoid being attracted by the stock prices of companies with poor performance, pay attention to the implementation of fiscal policies, and gradually return to paying attention to the fundamentals of listed companies.
from being overly bearish to “buying regardless of price”
"in the past, overseas hedge funds were too bearish, and hong kong stocks have been in a downturn for a long time. short sellers have recently closed their positions on a large scale, and those with funds have also re-added positions. some investors buy directly without asking the price." wen tianna, ceo of broad capital a reporter from china business news told china business news that hong kong stocks were indeed a little crazy on october 2, and the market had very positive expectations for u.s. interest rate cuts and mainland policy combinations.
zhu chengcheng, an analyst at huafu securities, said that looking forward to the market outlook, the recent outstanding performance of chinese assets represented by hong kong stocks is the result of multiple factors. on the one hand, various domestic favorable policies have been frequently introduced, which has greatly boosted market confidence; on the other hand, overseas the federal reserve cut interest rates in september, and the global liquidity environment became looser on the margins. in the early stages of the federal reserve's interest rate cuts, global equity markets tended to benefit from the denominator-side logic and generally performed well. taken together, the current hong kong stock market is still on its way, and there is still room for growth in the future. structurally, if international funds continue to flow back into the hong kong stock market, the growth sector represented by hang seng technology is expected to continue to dominate.
zhu chengcheng said that in september, international funds in the hong kong stock market turned into net inflows again after continuous outflows for several consecutive months, becoming an important incremental fund in the market. since the epidemic in 2020, the incremental capital structure of the hong kong stock market has undergone significant changes. on one side, overseas funds represented by international intermediaries continue to flow out of the hong kong stock market, and on the other side, mainland funds represented by southbound funds continue to pour into the hong kong stock market. however, judging from the latest marginal changes, a more interesting phenomenon is that since september, overseas funds in the hong kong stock market have begun to turn into net inflows.
"the hong kong stock market is somewhat excessively crazy and there are short-covering factors. the market's patience is limited. if no unexpected policies are implemented or fundamentals improve in the future, there may be a correction," a fund manager in guangzhou told china business news. the market is currently it may be in a stage of rise driven by changes in policy expectations that is not entirely based on improvements in economic fundamentals.
referring to the abnormal rise of some stocks yesterday, "at the individual stock level, we should be wary of the price inducement of a few companies with poor quality." hu yu, chief economist of xinding fund, told china business news that industries with long-term adjustments, such as finance and real estate, have it is a retaliatory rebound. although the process of valuation repair is a bit fast, the valuation is not expensive.
market outlook: looking forward to policy implementation until fundamentals improve
the current hong kong stock market reminds people of the good days of the "hong kong stock exchange great era": the "hong kong stock express" in august 2007 and april 2015 when public funds were able to buy hong kong stocks through hong kong stock connect. in early 2021, public funds went south to buy. the hang seng index rose 5,000 points in two months, etc.
looking forward to the market outlook, industry insiders believe that after the implementation of monetary policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratios, expectations for fiscal policies are currently relatively high. depending on the specific implementation, the gradual disclosure of third quarter reports by listed companies is also a focus.
wentina believes that investors are looking forward to the introduction of more fiscal policies on the mainland in the fourth quarter, which will allow market valuations to rebound. looking to the future, the current earnings ratio of the hong kong stock market is still relatively low. the future depends on whether policies can continue to support it.
hu yu believes that this is because the valuation and funding levels have not yet reached the market climax. in 2024, the specific source of incremental funds will be led by patient capital such as central huijin, social security, and pension funds. with the support of the central bank's new financial tools (swap facilities), securities firms, funds, and insurance companies will actively increase the proportion of investment in stocks. various policies that exceed expectations are gradually implemented. at present, the market seems to be very enthusiastic. in fact, it has not yet reached its climax. it is currently in the initial stage of the bull market.
the above-mentioned guangzhou fund manager believes that the real estate market's sales during the golden week seem to be hot, but whether it can continue remains to be seen. on the other hand, the fiscal stimulus policy has not yet been fully implemented, and the market's expectations of its effects may be too optimistic. the market may need time to digest the current excitement and find more sustainable investment lines.
wu zhou, the fund manager of shenzhen deyuan investment co., ltd., told china business news that foreign capital is currently returning to the chinese stock market. judging from the expressions of different overseas investors, we can see the differences in their views on investing in the chinese stock market. however, on the margin, it is recirculating.
(this article comes from china business news)
