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financial news agency, september 29 (editor xiaoxiang)as lebanese hezbollah confirmed that its "top leader" nasrallah was killed in an israeli air strike, geopolitical tensions in the middle east inevitably ushered in a major escalation again this weekend.

however, for international oil prices, which have always been quite sensitive to the situation in the middle east, are we really ready for this now? goldman sachs, a well-known wall street bank, is undoubtedly worried about this.

goldman sachs pointed out in a report released late friday local time that the oil market currently lacks a war risk premium. goldman sachs analyst lindsay matcham said, "we will continue to monitor conflicts in the middle east closely amid rising tensions between hezbollah and israel."

matcham added: “we believe that further escalation of the conflict could have a significant impact on the market, especially if the conflict involves the potential closure of the strait of hormuz, which is likely to cause local oil prices to surge”.

according to media reports, on the evening of the 27th, the israel defense forces launched an air strike on the hezbollah headquarters in dahiya, south of beirut, targeting nasrallah, the long-time leader of hezbollah. the israeli air force used advanced ground-penetrating bombs aimed at destroying hezbollah's command center located underground in residential buildings. since then, the israeli military claimed on saturday that it had killed nasrallah, the leader of the organization, in a "precision strike" operation. later that day, hezbollah also confirmed the death of "top leader" nasrallah.

there is no doubt that the attack on nasrallah is not the end of israel's actions. according to agence france-presse, the israeli military said in a statement on the 28th that it carried out "large-scale strikes" on dozens of hezbollah targets that day. hezbollah claimed to have carried out rocket attacks in northern israel.

judging from developments over the past week, israeli attacks have killed more than 700 people in lebanon. the number of people in lebanon who have fled their homes due to the conflict now exceeds 250,000.

the escalation has heightened concerns that the conflict could spiral out of control, drawing in iran, hezbollah's main backer, and the united states.

firas maksad, a senior researcher at the us think tank "middle east institute", said on saturday that the news of nasrallah's killing will lead to "significant" regional consequences. "nasrallah was the most prominent and iconic arab leader of the 'iranian axis of resistance'. his killing symbolizes the head-on confrontation between israel and iran over the future of lebanon and the levant. it may well be a the beginning, not the end, of a coming conflict."

judging from the recent trend of oil prices, compared with the continuous escalation of the geopolitical situation in the middle east, the oil market's attention or response to this is obviously insufficient.this week, brent crude oil futures fell by about 3%, and u.s. wti crude oil futures fell by about 5%, as media broke the news that saudi arabia decided to abandon its oil price target of us$100 and instead increase production to seize more market share.

however,in another newly released report, goldman sachs analyst lina thomas focused on outlining four short-term positive drivers of the crude oil market - including the middle east trend.

easing of global monetary policy;

crude oil inventories are still being consumed;

oil market positioning and valuations remain low;

oil markets have yet to factor in significant risks from geopolitical instability.

in fact, many industry insiders said that as speculators have invested record bearish bets in the crude oil market, the threat of a short squeeze in the oil market due to the risk of war is indeed growing.

u.s. defense secretary austin also pointed out on friday local time that he was not informed in advance of israel’s attack on hezbollah’s central headquarters. he warned that an all-out war between israel and hezbollah would have "devastating" consequences, with casualties that would "match or exceed" those in gaza. he reiterated that the united states hopes to resolve the crisis through diplomatic means and said that the israeli army may launch a ground offensive in lebanon, which may escalate the situation into a regional conflict.