the ceasefire promoted by the united states and france was rejected by israel. experts: the outcome may be unconventional, with one side winning and the other losing.
2024-09-28
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"we will continue to fight hezbollah with all our strength." israeli prime minister netanyahu said before arriving in new york to attend the united nations general assembly on september 27. this poured cold water on the ceasefire efforts promoted by countries led by the united states.
according to a report by china news service on september 27, israel rejected the joint statement of 12 countries and organizations including the united states, france, and others calling for an immediate ceasefire on the lebanese-israeli border for 21 days. this statement, which was intended to cool down the situation in lebanon and israel and promote ceasefire negotiations in gaza, has since been shelved.
analysts believe that although the ceasefire in gaza can send multiple signals, there is currently no breakthrough in sight and the diplomatic activities led by the united states have little effect. as for the lebanese-israeli conflict, the purpose of this statement is to buy time for all parties to implement the 2006 united nations security council resolution. given that the two sides have not reached an agreement in the past 20 years, the current diplomatic difficulties are not small.
according to walid salim, professor of the master's program at the jerusalem studies center at the abu dis campus of palestinian al-quds university and editor-in-chief of the jerusalem studies journal, as non-state actors, the lebanese hezbollah and the palestinian islamic resistance movement (hamas) are closely related to israel's war will not end in a complete "defeat".
"for example, a war between two countries will often result in one party succeeding and one party losing. however, non-state actors such as hamas and hezbollah will constantly update their capabilities during the war, which also leads to their conflict with israel. the conflict will be cyclical,” salim told the paper (www.thepaper.cn) on the sidelines of the first meeting of the china-arab think tank alliance hosted by shanghai international studies university on september 27.
on september 27, 2024 local time, in southern lebanon, border villages were hit by israeli air strikes. lebanese red cross staff inspected a destroyed three-story building. visual china map
israel surprises america
according to a report by cnn on september 25, 12 countries and organizations including the united states and france issued a joint statement calling for an immediate ceasefire on the lebanese-israeli border for 21 days. u.s. government officials said the announcement came after "the u.s. government is fully committed" to ensuring a cessation of hostilities between hezbollah and israel.
cnn quoted a senior u.s. government official as saying that the u.s. had held negotiations with both parties before the ceasefire proposal was announced. on the 25th, u.s. secretary of state blinken met with hochstein, the u.s. presidential envoy responsible for lebanese and israeli affairs, and mikati, prime minister of the lebanese caretaker government. mikati is one of the mediators through whom the united states has been delivering messages to hezbollah for several days.
however, this statement has not yet played its due role. israel rejected this and stepped up its offensive. lebanon denied signing the statement.
according to a report by the times of israel on september 26, white house officials stated that they believed israel "completely agreed" with the statement and expressed disappointment and surprise at israel's rejection. france, which jointly issued the statement, made it clear to the media that it had coordinated the statement with israel.
netanyahu further stated in new york, "our policy is clear: continue to fight hezbollah with all our strength. we will not stop until all goals are achieved." the israeli military revealed that it is currently preparing for a potential ground attack on lebanon. prepare.
on september 17 and 18, communications equipment explosions occurred in lebanon. the israeli military said that the focus of its war had "moved north" to lebanon. on september 23, israel continued air strikes in many places in lebanon, killing 492 people and injuring 1,645 people, becoming the "bloodiest day" since the lebanese-israeli conflict escalated. the international community is worried that lebanon and israel are slipping into all-out war, making the situation in the middle east even more turbulent.
in salim’s view, israel has still not achieved the victory it wanted in the gaza war. historically, israel defeated arab countries in 1967, but after that, it can be seen that israel is declining.
"israel occupied gaza in one day in 1967, but after a new round of palestinian-israeli conflict broke out in 2023, it took israel nearly a year and was still unable to fully occupy gaza. hamas still holds israeli hostages. hamas "sri lanka's effective forces are still there. israel wants to occupy gaza and establish a buffer zone on the lebanese border, but (israel) has tried to do these things before and failed," salim said.
gaza ceasefire talks stall
in addition to preventing the current lebanese-israeli situation from developing into a regional war, cnn believes that another purpose of this statement is to open diplomatic channels and stimulate israel and hamas to negotiate a ceasefire in the gaza strip.
hezbollah is a supporter of hamas and has been exchanging fire with the israeli army in the lebanese-israeli border area since the conflict broke out between israel and hamas. hezbollah says it will only end its conflict with israel if there is a ceasefire in gaza. israel attempts to view the conflict with hezbollah and hamas as two independent fronts.
according to reports, u.s. president biden and senior u.s. government security officials often expressed optimism about the (gaza) ceasefire agreement and believed that it was within reach, but in the end they saw that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. some u.s. officials recently said they did not know whether netanyahu or hamas leader sinwar had the political will to agree to a ceasefire in gaza.
israel's "haaretz" quoted diplomatic sources as saying on september 26 that hamas had stopped responding to proposals in recent weeks regarding gaza ceasefire agreement negotiations and hostage release. these proposals were conveyed by third countries mediating the conflict. "we have no information that sinwar is dead, but he has been unable to be contacted in recent weeks. in fact, we have not received any communication from hamas and we cannot determine if this is related to sinwar," the source said.
reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the ceasefire between palestine and israel. u.s. officials may blame hamas for the failure. however, some people pointed out that netanyahu continues to make new demands in the ceasefire agreement.
where is america’s plan b?
reuters pointed out that despite the intensive diplomatic activities led by the united states, the conflict between israel and hezbollah still has the potential to become a full-scale regional war. jonathan panikoff, who once served as deputy intelligence officer for middle east affairs in a u.s. intelligence agency, said he saw the limitations of u.s. strength and influence in the middle east.
according to the report, the most obvious example is that the united states is israel's largest arms supplier and (israel's) "diplomatic shield" at the united nations, but biden is unwilling to use too much influence to make israel succumb to the wishes of the united states.
panikoff further described the u.s. government’s sticking point on gaza: “for months, plan a didn’t work. so where’s plan b?”
salim pointed out that because netanyahu pursues a war line of "complete victory", he still does not see the possibility of any form of ceasefire. “netanyahu follows jabotinsky (note: zion revisionist movement advocate, regarded by the outside world as netanyahu’s ideological mentor). jabotinsky advocates obtaining peace through deterrence rather than give in to the enemy, use as much force as possible, use as much deterrence as possible. netanyahu will not even listen to the opinions of the israeli people, he is very stubborn and wants to go his own way, despite the fact that there are already more than 40. thousands of israelis demonstrated on the streets of tel aviv and developed cities demanding a ceasefire."
the paper reporter zhu runyu, chen rui, and huang yuehan
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