solution | who can win the "three pillars" of the liberal democratic party's re-election of the president?
2024-09-28
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the presidential election of the liberal democratic party of japan officially started on the 27th local time. a total of nine candidates participated in the competition, the largest number of candidates in the past. the current prime minister of japan and president of the liberal democratic party, fumio kishida, has announced that he will give up his candidacy, which means that after this election, he will no longer serve as prime minister, and the new president will take over as prime minister.
this party leader election was held after the liberal democratic party exposed the "black money" scandal at the end of last year. it may produce japan's youngest prime minister, and there is also the possibility of producing the first female prime minister. who are the popular candidates? what’s the inside story of the election process? please see the reporter’s explanation——
who is the popular candidate?
the election survey results released by japanese media on the 25th showed that former liberal democratic party secretary-general shigeru ishiba, current minister of economic security sanae takaichi, and former environment minister shinjiro koizumi continue to lead the "top three" pattern.
on september 12, in tokyo, japan, liberal democratic party presidential candidate shigeru ishiba delivered a political speech at the liberal democratic party headquarters. photo by xinhua news agency reporter yue chenxingishiba shigeru is 67 years old. this is his fifth time running for party leadership. he worked in a bank in his early years. in his 38 years in politics, he has been involved in many fields such as agriculture, security, and local revitalization. he served as secretary-general of the liberal democratic party and chairman of policy investigation, and was called a "policy expert." japan broadcasting association (nhk) tv station released poll results on the 9th, showing that 28% of the people support ishiba shigeru as president of the liberal democratic party. in previous party leader elections, shigeru ishiba has always received less support from liberal democratic party members of congress.
sanae takaichi, 63 years old, is one of the representative figures of japanese right-wing politicians. this is her second time running for party leadership, and she looks forward to becoming japan's first female prime minister. as a protégé of the late former prime minister shinzo abe, she was highly used during abe’s administration. sanae takaichi advocates revising japan's pacifist constitution and is a frequent visitor to the yasukuni shrine.
on september 12, in tokyo, japan, liberal democratic party presidential candidate takaichi sanae delivered a political speech at the liberal democratic party headquarters. photo by xinhua news agency reporter yue chenxingshinjiro koizumi, 43 years old, comes from a political family. his father is former prime minister junichiro koizumi. like his father, he promoted "reform" and said he would change the face of japanese politics and solve a series of long-standing issues. media comments pointed out that shinjiro koizumi is popular among young people and women, and supporters of the liberal democratic party are most optimistic about him. in the latest nhk poll, shinjiro koizumi's support rate is 23%, ranking second. if elected, he will become japan's youngest prime minister. however, the media pointed out that his biggest disadvantage is his relative lack of experience in governing.
on september 12, in tokyo, japan, shinjiro koizumi, candidate for the presidential election of the liberal democratic party, delivered a political speech at the headquarters of the liberal democratic party. photo by xinhua news agency reporter yue chenxinghard to decide in the first round?
according to a survey conducted by the yomiuri shimbun among liberal democratic party members of parliament, as of the 24th, 54 people had made it clear that they would vote for koizumi, while 31 and 28 supporters of takaichi and ishiba respectively. the latest survey conducted by nippon television and other media for ordinary members of the liberal democratic party and "party friends", that is, registered supporters, shows that ishiba's support rate is 31%, takaichi's 28%, and koizumi's 14%.
according to the liberal democratic party's presidential election rules, in the first round of voting, each of the 368 liberal democratic party members of congress received one vote. the votes of local councilors, ordinary party members and party members were equivalent to 368 votes, totaling 736 votes. the person who received more than half of the votes was elected president.
people walk on the streets of harajuku, tokyo, japan on july 4th. photo by xinhua news agency reporter zhang xiaoyuif no one passes the first round, the top two teams will advance to the final round. the weight of diet votes has increased, with each of the 368 diet members getting one vote, and each of the 47 prefectural ldp branch federations getting one vote. the one with the most votes wins.
japanese media generally predict that due to the large number of candidates and the diversion of votes, it will be difficult for ishiba, takaichi and koizumi to win in the first round. the final round will most likely be between two of the three.
party bosses are crucial
japanese media analyzed that in the run-off round, previously divided votes will be merged, and the attitude of the party bosses is very critical. former prime minister yoshihide suga, liberal democratic party vice president taro aso and current prime minister fumio kishida are all regarded as potential "kingmakers."
as a representative of the "non-mainstream faction" within the party, yoshihide suga made it clear at the beginning of the election that he "wanted to entrust the important task of steering japan to koizumi." many members of his camp also participated in the formulation of koizumi's campaign platform.
"mainichi shimbun" analyzed that when yoshihide suga and aso were both in shinzo abe's cabinet in the early years, they had conflicts due to policy differences. kishida expressed his intention to run in the last presidential election, which led to the "abortion" of yoshihide suga's re-election plan, and the two also formed a hostile relationship. kishida and aso are worried that supporters of yoshihide suga will be in power and may not support koizumi this time.
even though many factions within the liberal democratic party have disbanded or announced their dissolution due to the "black money" scandal, aso still maintains the "aso faction" headed by him. if all members of congress from this faction vote in accordance with aso's opinions, they will form an important force in the run-off.
when aso was prime minister in his early years, he was asked to step down by ishiba, and the tension between the two was well known in japanese political circles. japanese media revealed that aso supported the lower-ranked candidate, digital minister taro kono, but said that entering the run-off he would support takaichi, the right-wing "disciple" of his late ally abe.
on august 14, japanese prime minister fumio kishida attended a press conference held at the prime minister's residence in tokyo. published by xinhua news agency (pool photo, fang jia’s long shot)kishida has yet to express his support. considering that he is much younger than aso and yoshihide suga, the japanese media are more inclined to regard him as the future "kingmaker" and believe that the power of this former "kishida faction" president cannot be underestimated.
given that only two people can advance to the final round, if the candidate they recommend fails to make it to the first round, these behind-the-scenes bosses may have to make a decision, making the outcome even more uncertain.
the liberal democratic party's "black money" scandal was exposed at the end of last year. kishida pushed for the dissolution of factions, trying to get this veteran ruling party to bid farewell to the long-criticized "clique politics." however, in the current presidential election, which is the first in the "post-camp" period, in addition to polls, the japanese media's election analysis is mainly based on the distribution of the original faction's power. many media outlets criticized the liberal democratic party for being "still very clique-oriented" and believed that this kind of regime operation that "looks at the boss's face" is worrying. (reporters: hu ruoyu, li ziyue, li guangzheng, zhang yiyi, yang zhixiang; video: shen haoyang)
