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as of september, the russian-ukrainian conflict has lasted for more than 900 days. overall, the conflict is still in a stalemate, and the warring parties have not yet decided the winner. however, recently, especially since august, the situation on the russian-ukrainian battlefield has shown a new trend, and the intensity of the fighting between the two sides has escalated significantly.

as the conflict drags on, russia and ukraine suffer more and more losses. both sides are willing to reopen the door to dialogue, but there are serious differences between the two sides on the conditions for resuming negotiations. whether russia and ukraine can return to the negotiation table as soon as possible depends on how the battlefield situation changes, how the two sides make political choices, and how the international community can increase its efforts to persuade and promote peace talks.

the ukrainian army opened up a new battlefield and the war affected the russian mainland

on august 6, tens of thousands of ukrainian soldiers crossed the ukrainian-russian border under the cover of tanks and armored vehicles, launched a surprise attack, and captured parts of the russian kursk oblast. in this attack, the ukrainian army occupied more than 1,000 square kilometers of russian territory, including about 100 settlements. this is the most serious loss suffered by the western russian territory since world war ii. in addition, the ukrainian army also captured a number of russian military personnel in this raid, and a large number of russian civilians were forced to leave their homes. since the outbreak of the russian-ukrainian conflict, this is the first time that the ukrainian army has occupied the russian mainland on such a large scale, which has caused great shock to the russian side and has also attracted great attention from the international community. this marks the emergence of a new battlefield in the russian-ukrainian conflict, and the war has spread to the russian mainland.

the ukrainian army's capture of parts of russia's kursk oblast has three goals: first, to ease the combat pressure it faces in the eastern battlefield of ukraine and induce russia to transfer troops from eastern ukraine to reinforce kursk oblast; second, to create a combat situation for the ukrainian army to shift from defense to offense, boost the morale of the ukrainian army and the confidence of the west, and strive to obtain more western military aid; third, by occupying part of russian territory, it can increase bargaining chips for possible future negotiations. however, analysts believe that as of now, the ukrainian side has not achieved the goal of attacking kursk oblast, and it may even have a counterproductive effect.

after the ukrainian army occupied parts of kursk oblast, the russian ministry of defense established a border military security coordination committee to more efficiently provide comprehensive protection for troops guarding the border and protecting border residents. the russian ministry of defense also formed three army groups, namely "kursk", "belgorod" and "bryansk", to protect the territory and people of these three regions.

facts show that russia did not withdraw a large number of troops from the donbas battlefield in the east to reinforce kursk oblast as ukraine had expected. instead, it intensified its offensive in the donbas region. in order to defend the results of the battle in kursk oblast, ukraine had to withdraw troops to reinforce there, resulting in a decrease in its troop strength in the donbas battlefield.

from the overall battlefield perspective, the ukrainian attack on kursk oblast did not fundamentally change the offensive and defensive situation of both sides, and the attacking side was mainly russia. in addition, whether the occupied areas of kursk oblast can become a bargaining chip for ukraine to negotiate with russia in the future depends on whether the ukrainian army can hold on. moreover, russia has stated that it will not start negotiations with ukraine before recovering the occupied areas of kursk oblast.

the russian army attacked the ukrainian defense line and the intensity of the battle escalated significantly

since the ukrainian army captured parts of russia's kursk oblast, the russian army has intensified its attacks on important targets throughout ukraine, especially in the eastern battlefield of ukraine, launching a more fierce attack on the ukrainian army's defense line than before.

the russian army, navy and aerospace forces have joined forces to use drones, cruise missiles and strategic bombers to carry out large-scale bombings on energy and transportation facilities in many ukrainian cities, including kiev, resulting in power supply and traffic interruptions in many places. the ukrainian army's ability to transport military supplies has been seriously affected. in addition, the russian army has attacked some high-value targets on the ukrainian side based on intelligence collection. for example, on september 3, the russian army used two "iskander-m" missiles to attack a ukrainian military training center in poltava oblast, ukraine. ukraine said that the attack killed 51 people and injured 271 people, while russia said that more than 300 ukrainian armed personnel were killed or injured, including foreign military instructors. public opinion believes that this attack not only caused serious losses to ukraine, but also dealt a heavy blow to nato countries that sent military instructors to ukraine.

more importantly, in the eastern part of ukraine, the main battlefield of the russian-ukrainian conflict, the russian army has greatly stepped up its offensive in donbass, zaporizhia and other places, and occupied more advantageous positions, controlling many villages in donetsk, including krasnohorivka and vodiane. on september 10, sergei shoigu, secretary of the russian federation security council and former minister of defense, announced that the russian army has advanced nearly 1,000 square kilometers westward in the donbass region since august.

currently, the russian army is approaching the strategic town of pokrovsk (called red army city in russia). pokrovsk is a central city in the northwest of donetsk and an important transportation hub. many railways and roads connecting donetsk and dnipropetrovsk oblast pass through here. if the russian army occupies this city, the entire logistics support line and combat front of the ukrainian army will face collapse, and it will become easier for the russian army to attack other cities in donetsk. military observers believe that if the ukrainian army loses pokrovsk, the consequences it faces will be more serious than the loss of important towns such as bakhmut, soledar and avdeyevka.

on the other hand, the ukrainian army has repeatedly used missiles or drones to attack multiple targets in russia, including moscow, causing varying degrees of casualties and property losses. in addition to kursk oblast, the threat to belgorod oblast and bryansk oblast in the russian border area is increasing. on september 8, the ukrainian army attacked the fuel depot in belgorod oblast with a drone, and all 12 fuel storage tanks exploded and caught fire.

as the battle on the battlefield intensified significantly, the russian and ukrainian armies used some weapons with extremely high lethality or destructive power. the ukrainian army recently used drones to drop thermite bombs in a forest area in donetsk to force the russian troops who had set up bunkers there to abandon their positions. thermite bombs contain thermite, a mixture of metal powder and metal oxides, which is hot enough to melt steel when ignited. russia has repeatedly used thermobaric bombs against ukrainian positions. thermobaric bombs can absorb a large amount of oxygen from the air during the explosion, creating an oxygen-deficient environment, causing suffocation and death of personnel, and can destroy strong fortifications and underground targets.

looking at the entire battlefield, the performance of the two conflicting parties was unbalanced. russia had the upper hand. although ukraine was at a disadvantage, it did not suffer a crushing defeat with the continued support of the west, and was even able to continue to fight back.

currently, ukraine is still trying its best to seek more military assistance from western countries. in response, western countries have responded positively. according to reports, at the ukrainian defense liaison group meeting held on september 6, the united states announced that it would provide ukraine with another $250 million in military aid, and the united kingdom, the netherlands, canada and germany also promised to provide ukraine with a new batch of military equipment of varying values. on september 11, us secretary of state blinken and british foreign secretary lamy made new aid commitments during their visit to ukraine. the united states will provide ukraine with an additional $700 million in aid, and the united kingdom will provide ukraine with an additional $782 million in aid and loan guarantees.

in addition, ukraine has been asking western countries to lift restrictions on the ukrainian army's use of western weapons in russia in order to launch more and more lethal attacks on the russian hinterland. in response, western countries, especially the united states, said they are studying ukraine's request. russian president putin warned that if the west allows ukraine to use western-made long-range missiles to attack the russian mainland, it would be equivalent to western countries directly going to war with russia, which would change the nature and scope of the russian-ukrainian conflict. analysts believe that if western countries take this step, it may cause the conflict to get out of control, trigger strategic risks, and then backfire.

restarting the peace talks is imperative, but the negotiation prerequisites have become a problem

not long ago, russia and ukraine changed their original position of refusing to negotiate and expressed their willingness to restart the negotiations. at present, whether it is the ukrainian army opening up a new battlefield in russia's kursk oblast or the two sides significantly escalating military confrontation, it is all for the purpose of having more bargaining chips in future negotiations.

russian president vladimir putin said on september 5 during the 9th eastern economic forum plenary session that russia is ready for negotiations, but the basis for the negotiations is an agreement reached by negotiators from moscow and kiev in istanbul in 2022. ukrainian president zelensky also said on august 21 that he is willing to hold peace talks with russia, even if the other party is russian president vladimir putin. he hopes to end the white-hot stage of the war by the end of this year, and said that no one wants the russian-ukrainian conflict to continue for another decade or more.

for russia, although its overall strength, especially its military capability, is stronger than that of ukraine, the conflict process of more than two years has shown that russia cannot eliminate ukraine in one fell swoop. moreover, the conflict has consumed a lot of russian resources, seriously hindered its own economic and social development, and russia is also facing huge pressure internationally. for ukraine, although it has the support of the united states and other nato countries, its army is in a very difficult situation on the battlefield, facing a serious shortage of troops and weapons and ammunition. affected by the conflict, ukraine's national finances are very tight, even military pay is difficult to guarantee, and people's living materials are seriously scarce. in addition, if former us president trump, who opposes continuing to provide military aid to ukraine, wins the us election, ukraine may face the risk of losing further us military aid. more seriously, if the war with russia continues, ukraine may lose more territory.

although both russia and ukraine have the intention to restart the negotiations, the two sides are far from reaching an agreement on the conditions for restarting the negotiations. in june this year, the russian side proposed that in order to achieve a ceasefire and prepare for negotiations, the ukrainian army must withdraw from donetsk, luhansk, zaporizhia and kherson regions, and ukraine announced that it would not seek to join nato, and the west would lift sanctions against russia. however, ukraine has not given in on these issues so far. it can be predicted that the future negotiations between russia and ukraine will not be able to avoid three core issues, namely the ownership of the eastern part of ukraine, whether ukraine will join nato in the future, and the relationship between the west and russia.

international analysts pointed out that since there is no agreement on the preconditions for negotiations and nato countries led by the united states are still adding fuel to the fire, the ukrainian army will continue to fight with the russian army in the short term and consume each other. however, when the decisive turning point on the battlefield comes, the two sides will have to sit down and negotiate. in addition, the result of the us election scheduled for early november is also a major variable affecting the direction of this conflict.

going to the negotiation table is the inevitable choice for russia and ukraine. perhaps, the current intensification of the conflict between the two sides is the "darkness before dawn".