is israel's claim that the goal of its attack on lebanon is to "let northern residents return home" consistent with its words and deeds? expert interpretation
2024-09-24
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the armed conflict between israel and hezbollah in lebanon has intensified in recent days. israel claims that the goal of this operation is to "let the northern residents return home", and has launched a large-scale air strike on lebanon, and may also launch a ground operation.is israel's goal, as they claim, to get residents back home? what does israel really want to achieve?let’s see the interpretation of special commentator su xiaohui.
intent on suppressing hezbollah through military operations and intelligence capabilities
special commentator su xiaohui:after the escalation of the current round of israeli-palestinian conflict, the temporary border between lebanon and israel has remained tense. recently, the israeli army has intensified its attacks on hezbollah. israel has stressed that the military operation has two goals: one is to allow residents in the north to return to their homes, and the other is to require hezbollah in lebanon to withdraw to the north of the litani river, 30 kilometers from the temporary border between lebanon and israel. regarding these two goals,in fact, the core point is that israel hopes to kill two birds with one stone in this round of escalation of the palestinian-israeli conflict, eliminating the threat of hamas and hezbollah, which is its biggest concern.
special commentator su xiaohui:in recent times, the adjustment of israel’s military operations has focused more on the lebanon-israel border area, and israel believes that its own military capabilities and intelligence capabilities can achieve the goal. previously, communication equipment explosions occurred in many places in lebanon, which israel did not claim. but it is obvious that israel believes that the explosions and israel’s air strikes in lebanon have effectively killed hezbollah’s senior officials. at the same time, the israeli army is also attacking hezbollah’s missile and rocket launchers and arsenals, believing that the ultimate goal of the relevant actions will be that if hezbollah wants to launch an attack on israel, then while weakening its weapons inventory and its launch capabilities, it will not cause israel’s air defense system to be overloaded and will not be penetrated. so nowisrael is further strengthening its military, while at the same time sending a message to hezbollah that if hezbollah does not return to the negotiating table, the next stage will be ground action.。
to reduce domestic political pressure by shifting the military focus
special commentator su xiaohui:on the other hand, we can see that while exerting military pressure, israeli hope that more consideration can be given to domestic political needs.especially for prime minister netanyahu, the previous military action in the gaza strip actually caused more divisions in israel, and the public's dissatisfaction with the government is increasing. however, when it comes to the lebanese-israeli border area and israel's pressure on hezbollah, there is more support in israel, including some support from senior officials. therefore, strengthening military actions and even preparing to launch a ground offensive can divert domestic political pressure and achieve a policy direction for the israeli government to form a common goal at home. however, we also noticed that there are still some doubts in the process of adjusting the action, especially whether israel's military action can achieve the ultimate goal. there is no clear judgment yet, and israel itself is also conducting an assessment.
after the large-scale conflict between lebanon and israel, the world's media were all paying attention to iran's statement.iranian president pezhichyan said on the 23rd that if a larger-scale war breaks out in the middle east, it will not benefit anyone and that israel is trying to create a wider conflict.on the same day, iranian foreign ministry spokesman kanani condemned israel's attack as "crazy." kanani strongly criticized the united states' support for israel and called on the un security council to "take immediate action to stop these crimes." what does iran's statement reveal? let's take a look at the interpretation of special commentator su xiaohui.
israel is concerned about iran's policy stance and military moves
special commentator su xiaohui:israel is escalating its military campaign against hezbollah and preparing for a ground offensive, which will of coursetaking into account iran's position and trends. israel judges that iran may take action and cooperate with hezbollah to put military pressure on israel. because iran previously announced that it would take retaliatory actions against israel, but the boots have not yet landed. if israel launches a ground offensive against hezbollah, it will inevitably involve israel's energy, and iran may think this is a good time. if hezbollah cooperates, it can achieve more results in the fight against israel. at the same time, israel sees that iran, as the core of the resistance axis, also attaches great importance to the role played by hezbollah. if the israeli military's military action is aimed at weakening hezbollah and can achieve relevant goals, iran will not sit idly by.
all parties avoid all-out war, but the risk of conflict expansion remains
special commentator su xiaohui:but at the same time, israel and the west are also judging the overall trend of iran's current policies. obviously, in the context of the current risk of spillover conflicts in the middle east,iran does not want to intervene rashly, does not want to provoke trouble, and does not want a full-scale war in the middle east., this is very obvious. iran hopes to suppress israel on the one hand and preserve its own strength on the other.iran does not want the situation in the middle east to get out of controlat the same time, iran will also consider the possibility of us military action in the region, and the impact of a direct conflict between the us and iran if the relationship between the two countries gets out of control. however, the situation in the middle east has changed dramatically, especially when israel takes the next stage of military action against hezbollah in lebanon, it is possible that a chain reaction will occur. so obviously, regarding iran's attitude, iran is still evaluating the development of the situation, and the risk of spillover of conflicts in the middle east in the next stage will be further exacerbated as the situation changes.
