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【text/observer network columnist ding duo】

the philippines recently withdrew its coast guard ship that had illegally stayed in the lagoon of xianbin reef in china's nansha islands. the situation at sea has eased to a certain extent, but some filipinos in the international public opinion field are unwilling to lower the tone of hype and continue to advocate that the philippines and the united states should "expose china's bluff" and "make beijing make concessions on the south china sea issue" by strengthening us-philippines security cooperation and using the so-called small multilateral security mechanism.

however, historical experience and national practice have fully demonstrated that the only value of this idea is to add a footnote to the philippines' strategic misjudgment.

the current situation at sea is stabilizing, but manila needs to be aware that this is by no means the result of its so-called "microphone diplomacy," "transparency strategy," and "gray zone tangle." on the contrary, these actions will only heighten the confrontational sentiment in the philippines and add fuel to the fire of maritime friction and regional situation.

in order to avoid outcomes that no regional country wants to see during a period of high tension, manila needs to adjust its words and deeds on the south china sea issue, work with china in a more prudent and responsible manner, manage differences, leave room for de-escalation, and prevent the situation at sea from getting out of control.

after all, outrageous political remarks and failed maritime provocations will ultimately only put the philippine government in an extremely embarrassing position in front of the domestic people.

in recent years, the external uncertainties affecting the situation in the south china sea have been very clear, mainly the intervention of extraterritorial forces represented by the united states. "geopolitical paranoia" has led to the lingering shadow of confrontation in the south china sea order.

the united states provided a lot of intelligence, tactical and cognitive support for the philippines' recent provocations in the south china sea, reflecting its determination to strengthen the us-philippines alliance and intervene in the south china sea issue to reshape the security environment around china. the actions of the united states and the philippines colluding with each other also exposed that the philippines, especially the philippine armed forces, have tasted the sweetness of intensifying maritime conflicts, raising confrontational emotions and promoting escalation of friction.

the philippines and the united states have been using joint sea and air patrols, bilateral and multilateral military exercises, and small multilateral security mechanisms to contain and deter china, which has led to the concentration of military forces in the south china sea, which has not only caused discomfort to asean countries, but also intensified the resurgence of cold war thinking and led to group confrontation in the south china sea. if more and more "small circle" security mechanisms enter the south china sea or even directly target the south china sea, the "pan-security" impact it brings will not only squeeze the political space for "china and relevant parties to resolve disputes through direct negotiations and consultations, and china and asean countries to jointly maintain peace and stability in the south china sea", but will also impact the peace and stability in the south china sea that has lasted for more than 30 years since the end of the cold war, making the maritime situation more complicated and difficult to resolve.

the united states and other non-regional countries continue to intervene in the south china sea issue, which has had a great destructive effect on regional peace and stability. looking around the world, the shadow of the united states can be seen in all chaotic regions in the world after the cold war. the united states has more than 700 military bases around the world, of which more than 300 are located around china. in the first seven months of 2024, the united states has conducted more than 50 large-scale exercises and training in the south china sea and surrounding areas, and aircraft carrier formations and amphibious assault ship formations have also entered the south china sea from time to time. who is the threat to regional peace and stability? the answer is self-evident.

at present, the united states and the philippines are using each other on the south china sea issue. as far as the united states is concerned, no matter how high-sounding and "indestructible" it describes the us-philippines alliance, its positioning of the philippines as a "tool" has never changed. the united states is using the philippines to create favorable conditions for winning the great power competition with china.

as for the philippines, it does not have much to bargain with the united states. the more extreme its maritime provocations against china, the greater the united states's fear that the situation will get out of control and it will be dragged into the water. this can explain why the philippines has repeatedly vowed to clarify or expand the interpretation of armed attacks in the "philippines-us mutual defense treaty", while the united states deliberately maintains a certain degree of ambiguity on the specific circumstances or applicable conditions for activating the "philippines-us mutual defense treaty" and will never give the philippines any "trustworthy promises."

on the one hand, the united states is taking advantage of the philippines, but is reluctant to spend real money to truly help the philippines develop. on the other hand, it does not give the philippines real respect and continues to dictate the philippines' domestic policies. gina apostol, winner of the philippine national book award, once said that america's greed is a curse to the philippines, which provides the united states with a base to enter the gateway to the east. when a country becomes a tool of another country, it will become a loser no matter what. because the goals, wishes and needs of the tool will not be taken into account by the person who uses the tool, he uses the tool only to achieve his own goals. under the geopolitical logic of the united states, when the power is exhausted, it will be scattered, and when the benefits are exhausted, it will be scattered. all tools will eventually be worn out.

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