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the fed’s decision is still hot, and the outlook for the november interest rate meeting is uncertain. the important statements of two voting members have attracted market attention.

after the federal reserve cut interest rates more than expected this week, two fomc voting members, christopher waller and michelle bowman, spoke out and delivered important speeches on the future path of monetary policy, suggesting that the fed's pace of interest rate cuts may be adjusted.

goldman sachs said in its latest research report that the current market expectation is a 25 basis point interest rate cut in november and december, but there is still great uncertainty as to whether the rate cut will be 50 basis points in november.

the speeches of federal reserve officials once again emphasized the importance of "data dependence". the market is paying close attention to future inflation and employment data, which will provide key guidance for the fed's next interest rate decision.

waller: future interest rate decisions will be highly dependent on data performance

according to a research report released by goldman sachs on the 20th, waller said in an interview with cnbc that there are "several situations" that may affect the pace of future interest rate cuts, and the fed's interest rate cut decisions in the next few months will be highly dependent on the performance of economic data.

waller said that if the economy develops roughly as expected, there may be 25 basis point rate cuts at the january and december meetings. however, if the job market data deteriorates or inflation slows more than expected, the fed may consider accelerating the pace of rate cuts, perhaps even a 50 basis point cut. conversely, if inflation rebounds, the fomc may pause rate cuts.

he also said that the latest inflation data "weakened faster than expected", but the upside risks to inflation remain. waller pointed to the august cp and ppi reports and the impact of these data on pce inflation as the key reasons why he supported a 50 basis point rate cut instead of a 25 basis point rate cut at the september meeting.

he also mentioned that the annualized core pce inflation rate has been below the fed's 2% target for the past four months. however, the inflation progress at the beginning of the year was reversed, and the risk of reversal in the future cannot be ignored.

bowman: it's too early to declare victory; goldman sachs: there is still great uncertainty about the november rate cut

in contrast to waller, bowman opposed a 50 basis point rate cut at the september meeting. she believed that a 25 basis point rate cut was more prudent. she described the current economic situation as "strong" and pointed out that the labor market was "close to full employment", but at the same time emphasized that the inflation rate was still above the fed's 2% target.

bowman said that the fed should avoid sending a signal to the market that it has prematurely declared "victory over inflation" and prevent further stimulation of demand. a 25 basis point rate cut can avoid the risk of "excessive stimulation of demand."

“i am confident that a measured and gradual adjustment of monetary policy toward a neutral stance can ensure that inflation moves further toward our 2 percent objective,” she said in a statement.

goldman sachs analysts believe that the current market expectation is a 25 basis point rate cut in november and december, but there is still great uncertainty as to whether the rate cut will be 50 basis points in november.