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the frequency of su-57's participation in combat has increased significantly. how much impact will it have on the russia-ukraine conflict?

2024-09-18

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the russian aerospace forces have increasingly used su-57 stealth fighters in the russia-ukraine conflict.

according to a report by global times on september 13, citing the website of the u.s. national interest magazine, russia has dispatched its most advanced su-57 stealth fighter to attack more than 40 targets in ukraine.

according to reports, the russian su-57 fighter jets have been used to carry out "more than 40 attacks" against targets in ukraine in recent months. the stealth fighter is being used more and more frequently in combat. although russia only occasionally deployed the su-57 fighter jets before, the intensity and frequency of its use have increased significantly.

the production of su-57 in the early stage of service was very low. before 2023, only a single-digit number of su-57s would be delivered to the aerospace force.

su-57 joins the fight with long-range missiles

as the first fifth-generation fighter equipped by russia, every move of the su-57 will attract attention from the outside world. the long test flight finalization process, the crash of the first mass-produced aircraft before it was put into service, and the actual combat in syria before it was finalized... can be said to be a topic of its own. the prototype of the su-57 fighter, the t-50, made its first successful flight in january 2010. the aircraft was originally planned to be finalized and mass-produced in 2015, and 60 aircraft were planned to be purchased by 2020. however, as the saying goes, plans cannot keep up with changes. factors such as the crimean crisis and the aircraft's own problems caused the finalization time to be postponed again and again. it was not until 2020 that the first mass-produced su-57 fighter was officially equipped.

the outbreak of the russia-ukraine conflict has attracted much attention as to whether the russian military will use the su-57, the most advanced fighter jet of the aerospace force, on the battlefield. in may 2022, russian media reported that the russian military had already used the su-57 in the conflict. it is said that two to three weeks after the special operation began, russia had already begun using the su-57 in special military operations, using missile weapons to operate outside the combat range of the enemy's air defense system.

su-57 conducts aerial refueling test.

this is not the first time that the su-57 has participated in actual combat. in february 2018, the russian air force dispatched four su-57 fighters to the khmeimim air base in syria. the russian ministry of defense explained that the su-57 flew to syria to test the fighter's electronic reconnaissance and radio positioning systems under conditions close to actual combat conditions. it is reported that the su-57 launched an out-of-area ground attack missile in actual combat in syria to strike terrorist camps from a long distance. in may 2018, the russian military first released a video of a su-57 fighter opening its bomb bay to launch missiles. in the video, a su-57 fighter in level flight opened its bomb bay and launched a red missile. judging from the appearance of the missile, the missile is a new stealth air-launched cruise missile, the x-59mk2 (finally given the code name kh-69). the missile was publicly unveiled at the 2015 russian air show and has a strong out-of-area strike capability.

recently, the su-57 has participated in actual combat operations mainly using the kh-69 missile to carry out standoff strikes on ukrainian targets. this missile is a stealth standoff ground attack missile developed on the basis of the kh-59mk. the missile shape adopts a design that can reduce the radar reflection cross-sectional area - a four-sided pyramid head and a rectangular cross-section body. part of the body material also uses absorbing materials and is coated with stealth coating. compared with the kh-59mk, the stealth performance is greatly improved.

the kh-69 missile is 4.19 meters long and weighs 770 kilograms. it has a pair of folding swept wings on the back and four laterally foldable x-shaped trapezoidal tail wings at the tail. the engine uses a trr-50mt small turbofan engine and the air inlet adopts an embedded design. the maximum range of the export version exceeds 290 kilometers, and the self-use version may reach about 400 kilometers. the warhead weighs 310 kilograms. the missile adopts a composite guidance method of inertial navigation + satellite navigation + image matching guidance, with a hit accuracy of less than 7 meters, and can be used to strike high-value targets such as enemy airports, power stations and command posts outside the defense zone.

the kh-69 missile can be carried by most of the russian aerospace forces' fighters, including the su-35, su-34, su-30 and su-57. due to its compact size, the su-57's main bomb bay on the belly can carry four of these missiles, taking into account the need for stealth fighters to carry them. without using wing pylons, the su-57 can carry more standoff air-to-ground missiles than the f-35 fighter (the f-35's bomb bay can only accommodate two jsm standoff air-to-ground missiles with a range of more than 350 kilometers), while the f-22a fighter can only carry guided bombs and currently does not have the ability to launch standoff air-to-ground missiles.

the british ministry of defense said in a report released in january this year that since the outbreak of the russian-ukrainian conflict, the russian aerospace forces' su-57 fighter jets have "only been used a few times." however, since the beginning of this year, the number of su-57s used has increased significantly, and this fighter has been used to launch more than 30 cruise missiles, including the kh-69 stealth cruise missile.

in april this year, the russian military launched an attack on the tripilya thermal power plant in kiev, ukraine using multiple cruise missiles. fragments found at the scene indicated that the russian military used newly deployed kh-69 cruise missiles. this power plant is a key infrastructure in the ukrainian capital of kiev, providing a large part of the electricity supply to the ukrainian capital region and its surrounding areas. it is currently impossible to confirm the number of times the su-57 was used to launch missiles at ukrainian targets, but based on the existing information, it is speculated that the russian military used this stealth fighter to attack ukrainian targets within russian airspace.

screenshot of the video of su-57 opening its bomb bay to launch missiles.

why did the su-57 begin to participate in combat frequently?

the russian-ukrainian conflict has lasted for more than two years. why did the russian aerospace forces start to use more su-57 fighters at this time? in my opinion, on the one hand, after more than two years of production, the number of su-57 equipment has reached a certain scale. at the beginning of the conflict, the number of su-57 equipment of the russian aerospace forces was only in the single digits, and now it has reached 25 (12 were delivered in 2023, and it is said that more than 20 are planned to be delivered in 2024). the russian aerospace forces hopes to use actual combat to test the combat capability of the fighter and enhance the combat experience of pilots. russia is currently facing the ukrainian army supported by nato, especially in air combat, which is almost fighting against nato; on the other hand, the kh-69 missile has entered a relatively stable production stage, and it also needs to be tested in actual combat. at present, russia needs to carry out long-range strikes on important energy facilities and military targets of the ukrainian army to weaken ukraine's war capabilities, and the kh-69 missile has a place to use.

the kh-69 missile adopts a stealth design and has strong penetration capability.

with the help of nato's sea, land, air and space intelligence surveillance system, the ukrainian army can often warn of long-range strikes by russian air and space bombers and intercept the subsonic cruise missiles launched by the bombers on their routes, reducing their combat effectiveness. the su-57 is a tactical stealth fighter with more flexible deployment and strong stealth capabilities, making it difficult for nato's intelligence system to detect it. in addition, the kh-69 missile also has a certain stealth capability and a stronger penetration capability.

judging from the current battlefield use of the su-57, the aerospace force mainly uses this aircraft to carry out out-of-area strikes on ukrainian targets. as for its impact on the war situation, it mainly depends on the frequency of use of the su-57. if the kh-69 missile is in sufficient supply and the su-57 is used on a large scale at the maximum sortie rate according to its combat readiness rate (60%), combined with the attack of other russian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and suicide drones, it will be a worse situation for the ukrainian army, which is at the critical point of the dilemma, and the pressure will be further increased.

the su-57 is likely to launch attacks before entering ukraine, and is almost not threatened, and cannot fully test its combat capability, especially its ability to seize air superiority, which is the core combat capability of the su-57. therefore, if ukraine obtains f-16 fighters, it is worth paying attention to whether the su-57 will participate in the fight for air superiority next.

in fact, both the us f-22a and f-35 series have already participated in actual combat, but their opponents are asymmetric combat opponents, and they have relatively few air control missions. the most important task is still ground attack. only in the past few years in the middle east battlefield, israel's f-35i fighters have performed some air control combat missions, such as intercepting incoming cruise missiles and suicide drones. therefore, the us stealth fighters have no chance to fight with the air forces of major powers in actual combat in air control operations. previously, some media reported that the f-35 fighters had intervened in the russian-ukrainian conflict, but it is generally believed that although the f-35 entered the ukrainian battlefield, it was far away from the battlefield, using its advanced situational awareness capabilities to conduct intelligence reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures and other tasks, and did not go deep into the front line to fight with the russian aerospace forces.