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u.s. stocks closed: the fed entered the countdown to rate cuts, and the s&p dow hit a new high during the session

2024-09-18

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the dow jones industrial average and the s&p 500 closed essentially flat on tuesday, eastern time, after both indices hit record highs in early trading as investors prepared for the federal reserve's first interest rate cut in four and a half years.

earlier retail sales data eased concerns about a sharp slowdown in the u.s. economy. u.s. retail sales rose 0.1% in august, more than the expected 0.2% decline, suggesting the u.s. economy remained on solid footing for most of the third quarter.

cme's fed rate watch tool shows that the market expects the fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at this meeting with a 65% probability. in recent days, market expectations for the extent of the rate cut have been volatile, which has also led to large fluctuations in asset prices.

the day before the fed's decision, the market was still rife with controversy over what exactly the central bank would do, which is extremely rare under powell's leadership.

in fact, even nick timiraos, the "federal reserve mouthpiece," is not sure by how much the rate cut will be. in his latest post, he said that the fed will definitely cut interest rates this week, but whether the cut will be a larger 50 basis points or the traditional 25 basis points is still uncertain. the suspense will be left to the last minute, and powell and his colleagues will need to weigh it carefully.

jeffrey gundlach, ceo of doubleline capital, said he expects the federal reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on wednesday and a total of 125 basis points by the end of the year; he believes that the u.s. economy is already in recession and that the fed's tightening policy has lasted too long.

but some investors said a bigger rate cut could raise concerns about the health of the economy. adam turnquist, chief technical strategist at lpl financial, commented: "a 50 basis point rate cut could further suggest that the fed is not optimistic about the labor market, which would be a more worrying sign."

miller tabak analyst matt maley claimed that the fed would either cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, but hinted that they would take more aggressive measures in the future. given that u.s. stocks are approaching overbought areas, there is a high probability of a decline after the decision.

market dynamics

as of the close, the dow jones industrial average fell 15.90 points, or 0.04%, to 41,606.18; the nasdaq rose 35.93 points, or 0.20%, to 17,628.06; and the s&p 500 rose 1.49 points, or 0.03%, to 5,634.58.

the 11 sectors of the s&p 500 index rose and fell differently, with the healthcare sector falling more than 1%, the information technology/technology sector falling 0.09%, the telecommunications sector rising more than 0.4%, the financial sector rising more than 0.5%, the consumer discretionary sector rising more than 0.6%, and the energy sector falling 1.41%.

u.s. stock industry etfs rose and fell differently. the global aviation industry etf closed up 1.81%, the energy industry etf rose more than 1.3%, the regional bank etf, banking etf, financial industry etf, and discretionary consumer etf rose by as much as 0.8%, and the semiconductor etf closed down slightly by less than 0.1%.

hot stock performance

large technology stocks rose across the board, with amazon and netflix up more than 1%, apple, microsoft, tesla, google, and meta rising slightly, and nvidia falling more than 1%.

intel rose 2.7% after the company announced that it had adjusted the layout of its chip foundry business and signed an agreement with amazon cloud to jointly develop an ai chip using the 18a chip manufacturing process.

popular chinese concept stocks rose across the board, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index up 1.83%. li auto rose more than 12%, futu holdings and iqiyi rose more than 4%, and bilibili rose more than 3%.

company news

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[jpmorgan is in talks with apple to take over its credit card business]

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