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the central bank rarely interprets a single month’s financial data. what incremental policies can be expected?

2024-09-18

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in august, the credit and social financing indicators continued to run at a low level, but compared with market expectations, they were not bad. overall, the financial data in august were mixed.

on the one hand, m1 has been negative for five consecutive months year-on-year, continuing to hit a record low; residents' short-term loans have increased less year-on-year for seven consecutive months, residents' medium- and long-term loans have again turned to less year-on-year growth, and corporate medium- and long-term loans have increased less year-on-year for six consecutive months.

on the other hand, the accelerated issuance of government bonds continued to provide strong support for the growth rate of social financing. the growth rates of social financing and m2 have entered a stable period. the growth rates of social financing in july and august were 8.2% and 8.1% respectively, which were basically the same as 8.1% at the end of june; the growth rates of m2 in july and august were both 6.3%, slightly higher than 6.2% at the end of june.

against this background, the heads of relevant departments of the central bank rarely interpreted the august financial data, which attracted widespread attention from the market.

when answering the question about the considerations and measures for the next monetary policy, the head of the relevant department of the central bank said: "the monetary policy will be more flexible, moderate, precise and effective, increase the intensity of regulation, speed up the implementation of the financial policy measures that have been issued, and start to introduce some incremental policy measures to further reduce the financing costs of enterprises and the credit costs of residents, and maintain a reasonable and ample liquidity."

what signals does the central bank send out by interpreting monthly data? how to understand "increasing regulatory efforts and launching some incremental policy measures"?

financial data continued to be low in august