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on monday, september 16, local time, the three major u.s. stock indexes rose and fell. as of the close, the dow jones industrial average rose 0.55%, setting a new record high, the nasdaq fell 0.52%, and the s&p 500 rose 0.13%.

former new york fed president william dudley said on monday that the fed faces a key decision at this week's meeting: whether to moderately cut interest rates by 25 basis points or directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to curb the economic recession. he himself pointed out at the bretton woods committee meeting in singapore last friday that the logic of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is more convincing.

the probability of the fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points increases again

on monday, september 16, local time, the three major u.s. stock indexes rose and fell. as of the close, the dow jones industrial average rose 228.30 points, or 0.55%, to 41,622.08 points, setting a new record high; the nasdaq fell 91.85 points, or 0.52%, to 17,592.13 points; and the s&p 500 rose 7.07 points, or 0.13%, to 5,633.09 points.

as bets on a 50 basis point rate cut by the federal reserve increased on wednesday, funds continued to flow into economically sensitive small stocks. although the s&p 500 rose only 0.13%, most of its components closed higher, and the russell 2000 index, representing small companies, continued to rise. bank stocks outperformed the broader market, and large bank stocks all closed higher. intel and amazon will expand their strategic cooperation in chip manufacturing, and intel's u.s. stocks rose more than 10% after the market. well-known apple analyst ming-chi kuo said that the pre-order sales of the iphone 16 series in the first weekend are estimated to be 37 million units, a decrease of about 12.7% from the first weekend sales of the iphone 15 series last year. as of the close, apple fell 2.78%.

(source of s&p 500 heat map: finviz)

lisa shalett of morgan stanley wealth management said: "financials, industrials, energy, healthcare, infrastructure-related stocks and materials sectors will provide attractive investment opportunities."

this week, the federal reserve is preparing to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. the cme fedwatch tool shows that the market currently expects a 67% chance of a 50 basis point cut, compared with a 50% probability a day ago.

dudley, former president of the new york fed, said on monday that the fed faces a key decision at this week's meeting: whether to moderately cut interest rates by 25 basis points or directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to curb the economic recession. he himself pointed out at the bretton woods committee meeting in singapore last friday that the logic of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is more convincing.

meanwhile, three democratic senators, including warren, wrote to federal reserve chairman powell, asking him to slash benchmark interest rates, including a 75 basis point cut this week, to protect the u.s. economy from potential harm. "if the fed is too cautious in cutting interest rates, it will unnecessarily put our economy at risk of a recession," senator elizabeth warren said in a letter to powell on monday.

however, blackrock's chief strategist wei li believes that the market's aggressive expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the federal reserve this week are unlikely to come true. she said the market's belief that the fed waited too long to ease and will now be forced to cut rates at a faster pace to support the economy is wrong.

carly cox of wealth management firm ritholtz wealth management believes that whether it is a 25 basis point or 50 basis point rate cut, the impact of a single rate cut on the economy may be negligible, and the path and extent of the rate cut in the next year or so are the most important.

"we remain bullish on stocks, and rotation has eased market volatility multiple times since the s&p 500 bottomed out last year," said john stoltzfus, an analyst at oppenheimer asset management. "most of the pullbacks so far this year look like trimming and pruning of the s&p 500."

in other markets, u.s. treasury yields closed lower across the board, with the 2-year treasury yield falling 2.7 basis points to 3.566%, the 3-year treasury yield falling 2.6 basis points to 3.422%, the 5-year treasury yield falling 1.9 basis points to 3.418%, the 10-year treasury yield falling 3.8 basis points to 3.622%, and the 30-year treasury yield falling 0.7 basis points to 3.976%.

international oil prices closed higher. light crude oil futures for october delivery on the new york mercantile exchange rose $1.44 to close at $70.09 a barrel, a gain of 2.10%. london brent crude futures for november delivery rose $1.14 to close at $72.75 a barrel, a gain of 1.59%.

international precious metal futures and spot prices fluctuated. london gold rose 0.18% to $2,582.235/ounce, and comex gold was roughly flat at $2,610.0/ounce, both hitting record highs. london silver rose 0.01% to $30.712/ounce, and comex silver rose 0.02% to $31.080/ounce.

intel's sudden good news for apple's sales is lower than expected

in terms of sectors, 9 of the 11 major sectors of the s&p 500 index rose and 2 fell. among them, the financial sector led the gains with a 1.22% increase, the energy sector rose 1.19%, and the information technology sector fell 0.95%.

popular technology stocks fell more than they rose. arm fell more than 6%, micron technology fell more than 4%, apple and broadcom fell more than 2%, tsmc and nvidia fell nearly 2%, amd, asml, and tesla fell more than 1%, amazon, texas instruments, qualcomm, amd semiconductor, netflix, and eli lilly fell slightly, microsoft and google a rose slightly, meta rose more than 1%, cisco rose more than 2%, oracle rose more than 5%, and intel rose more than 6%.

intel rose 6.36%. intel said on monday that it is eligible for up to $3 billion in u.s. government funding to produce chips for the military. intel general manager chris george said: "today's announcement highlights our shared commitment with the u.s. government to strengthen the domestic semiconductor supply chain."

in addition, intel ceo pat gelsinger announced that amazon aws has become a customer of the company's manufacturing business. the two parties will jointly invest in the development of customized semiconductors for artificial intelligence computing, "fabric chips", under a multi-year, multi-billion dollar framework. the cooperation will rely on intel's 18a process, an advanced chip manufacturing technology. "today's announcement is significant." gelsinger said in an interview, "this is a very picky customer with very complex design capabilities." affected by this news, intel's us stocks rose by more than 10% after the market.

microsoft rose 0.17%. microsoft announced a large deal with vodafone group on monday to use its ai assistant in office and unveiled a series of new ai tools designed to help employees create excel charts, prioritize emails and collaborate with each other. in a blog post published ahead of a webcast on monday, microsoft said vodafone will buy 68,000 licenses for the enterprise version of the assistant, called copilots. earlier preliminary trials found that employees who used the assistants could save about three hours per week each.

at the same time, microsoft announced a stock repurchase plan of up to $60 billion on monday and increased its quarterly dividend from 75 cents per share to 83 cents per share. the repurchase plan has no expiration date, and the aggregated data shows that this round of repurchase plan accounts for 1.9% of the company's current market value.

tesla fell 1.52%. recently, tesla announced that the 100 millionth 4680 battery officially rolled off the production line. tesla ceo musk also sent a message to congratulate his battery team. three months ago, tesla announced that the 50 millionth 4680 battery rolled off the production line, and the output doubled in just over three months. it is reported that tesla has achieved large-scale production of 4680 batteries at its texas super factory, and plans to further expand production capacity and invest in expansion of the nevada factory for the production of electric heavy-duty trucks semi and 4680 batteries. the battery production capacity is planned to reach 100gwh.

apple fell 2.78%. well-known apple analyst ming-chi kuo said that the demand for apple's newly released iphone 16 pro was lower than expected. the report pointed out that the pre-order sales of the iphone 16 series in the first weekend were estimated to be 37 million units, which was about 12.7% lower than the first weekend sales of the iphone 15 series last year. kuo ming-chi believes that one of the key factors that led to the lower-than-expected demand is that apple's main selling point, apple smart, was not released at the same time as the iphone 16. apple said on monday that ios 18 is now available and is expected to introduce apple smart features starting next month; vos 18 is now available as a free software update for apple tv 4k and apple tv hd; watchos 11 will be launched on september 16.

eric woodring, an analyst at morgan stanley, said last week that the market's focus will shift to early pre-order and delivery time data for the iphone 16. in addition, matthew maley, chief market strategist at miller tabak, warned that the risk of "substantial decline" in apple's stock has increased significantly as the holiday sales season approaches.

amazon fell 0.86%. amazon announced on monday that starting next year, it will require employees to work in the company's office five days a week, a stricter policy than the previous three days a week. in a letter to employees released on monday, amazon ceo andy jassy wrote that the change was necessary to "invent, collaborate and stay connected." he said the experience of the three-day work week "reinforced our belief in the benefits of office work."

in addition, amazon plans to increase the ratio of employees to managers by at least 15% by the end of the first quarter of 2025 through organizational restructuring. in a q&a with employees, amazon said that "some organizations may identify roles that are no longer needed" but did not provide further details. according to the q&a, amazon will also cancel the full-time remote work option that previously allowed employees four months a year.

financial stocks closed higher across the board. wells fargo, morgan stanley, travelers insurance, jpmorgan chase, regions financial, capital one financial, goldman sachs, citigroup, bank of america, visa, and blackrock rose by more than 1%, while mastercard, american express, ubs, deutsche bank, aig, mizuho financial, and u.s. bancorp rose slightly.

energy stocks generally rose. apache oil and marathon oil rose more than 2%, conocophillips rose nearly 2%, petrobras, bp, exxonmobil, imperial oil, schlumberger, and chevron rose more than 1%, shell, murphy oil, occidental petroleum, and duke energy rose slightly, and american energy fell slightly.

most of the popular chinese concept stocks fell, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index falling 0.58%. weilai fell more than 2%, alibaba and bilibili fell more than 1%, new oriental, netease, weibo, xpeng motors, li auto, tencent music, and futu holdings fell slightly, huya and iqiyi closed flat, jd.com, vipshop, and baidu rose slightly, douyu and manbang rose more than 1%, and pinduoduo rose more than 2%.