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the trend of hong kong stocks is somewhat surprising!

the external markets were all in the green, but the performance of hong kong stocks was not good today. in the morning, the three major hong kong stock indexes all fell by more than 1% at one point, and then stabilized and rebounded, but the strength was relatively general. however, in the afternoon, the hong kong stock market suddenly changed, and the major indexes continued to rise. the hang seng index and the hang seng technology index both turned positive, with weilai rising by more than 4%, kuaishou rising by more than 2.8%, and meituan rising by more than 2.5%. it is worth noting that a50 also continued to be strong, with a significantly stronger trend than hong kong stocks.

analysts believe that it may be necessary to look at it from both internal and external perspectives.

first, from the internal reasons, the national bureau of statistics released data on the 14th, showing that the overall decline in commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in china in august widened, but positive signals have also emerged, with the decline in sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities narrowing. in addition, the high-level statement of "unswervingly completing the economic and social goals and tasks for the whole year" once again released expectations of easing.

secondly, from an external perspective, on the one hand, there is the trade dispute, and the office of the united states trade representative announced that it would increase 301 tariffs on some chinese goods. the market had expected this before, and this time it was also a negative realization; on the other hand, the yen continued to appreciate, and the yen and the dollar strengthened against other currencies in the early asian session, but since the japanese stock market did not open today, the asia-pacific market's concerns about carry trades eased.

hong kong stocks suddenly changed

in the morning trading today, the three major hong kong stock indexes all fell by more than 1%, and the hang seng technology index fell particularly sharply. from a structural point of view, domestic real estate stocks, domestic demand stocks, and biopharmaceuticals almost all fell across the board. hong kong-listed airline stocks once fell across the board, with china eastern airlines falling nearly 5%, china southern airlines falling more than 3.2%, and air china and beijing capital airport both falling more than 2%. hong kong-listed domestic real estate stocks once fell collectively, with sino-ocean group falling more than 11%, yalife services falling 10%, and r&f properties falling 5.9%, all of which set new historical lows. country garden services fell 6.8%, and vanke fell 4.8%. hong kong-listed biopharmaceutical stocks also fluctuated and pulled back, with rongchang biopharma falling nearly 6%, beigene falling nearly 4%, genscript biopharma and tigermed both falling 1.5%, and wuxi biologics falling 1.2%. in addition, bilibili fell nearly 6%, nongfu spring fell more than 4%, jd health fell nearly 4%, and china resources land, netease, and mengniu dairy all fell more than 3.5%.

however, the hong kong stock market suddenly changed in the afternoon. all major indexes continued to rise, the hang seng index and the hang seng technology index both turned positive, nio rose more than 4%, kuaishou rose more than 2.8%, and meituan rose more than 2.5%.

what is more interesting is that in the early trading today, a50 did not follow the hong kong stock market to fall, but rose slightly. but the rmb did not follow the yen to strengthen.

what is the reason?

in the early trading today, judging from the structure of the hong kong stock market's sell-off, it still reflects the economic reality to a certain extent. from an internal perspective, the real estate data that foreign investors care about most is still weak. the national bureau of statistics announced the fluctuations in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august on the 14th. according to media calculations based on the data of the national bureau of statistics, the new commercial housing price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august fell by 5.3% year-on-year, continuing to hit the largest decline since may 2015. on a monthly basis, august fell by 0.7%, the 14th consecutive month of decline.

however, on the one hand, there is also a positive signal in these data: the decline in sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities has narrowed; on the other hand, stimulus expectations have been strengthened again. last week, the market was once again crazy about the heavy information: china will cut the interest rates of more than us$5 trillion of existing housing loans as early as this month, aiming to stimulate consumption by reducing the borrowing costs of millions of households.

from the outside, on the one hand, the yen strengthened against the dollar and other currencies in early asian trading. the commonwealth bank of australia's global economic and market research team pointed out in a research report that both the federal reserve and the bank of japan will hold monetary policy meetings this week. if the market focuses on the convergence of monetary policies between the two, the yen may fall to a yield low of less than 140 against the dollar.

today, usd/jpy fell to 140.25, the lowest in more than a year. recently, the appreciation of the yen is often associated with a sell-off in the asia-pacific equity market, but today the stock markets in singapore and taiwan did not react much. this may mean that the market's concerns about the reversal of the yen carry trade have ended.

subsequent expectations

in fact, the recent performance of hong kong stocks is stronger than that of a-shares. from august 7 to september 13, the hang seng index rose by 4.3%, while the shanghai composite index fell by 5.7% during the same period. since august 7, the market performance of hong kong stocks has been stronger than that of a-shares. specifically, from august 7 to september 13, the hang seng index and hang seng tech index rose by 4.3% and 4.1% respectively, while the shanghai composite index and chinext index both fell by 5.7% during the same period.

cicc said that the us stock market rebounded sharply due to factors such as the rising expectations of the federal reserve's interest rate cut. in contrast, the a-share market weakened under the relatively weak domestic economic data and policy expectations. against this background, it is not difficult to understand that the hong kong stock market has a volatile trend that is independent of the a-share market and different from overseas, reflecting its characteristics of "chinese assets + foreign capital". the hong kong stock market is more flexible than the a-share market because it is sensitive to external liquidity and hong kong follows the interest rate cut under the linked exchange rate arrangement.

everbright securities believes that the main reasons for the recent divergence in performance between the hong kong and a-share markets include: hong kong stocks' semi-annual report performance is slightly stronger than a-shares; market expectations for the federal reserve's interest rate cut have recently increased, and the hong kong stock market has benefited more as an offshore market; the hong kong stock market has adjusted more fully in the early stages, and its dividend yield is higher.

historically, a-shares and hong kong stocks have experienced market divergence many times. if there is no major risk factor impact, the duration of the divergence between the a-share and hong kong stock markets is usually short. looking back, the hong kong stock market may still be more resilient than the a-share market in the short term, but a significant recovery in the hong kong and a-share markets may still require fundamentals and policy signals.

analysts believe that under the current circumstances, both hong kong stocks and a-shares need policies as triggers. if china's stimulus policies can keep up with the fed's interest rate cuts in a timely manner and exceed expectations, the market may usher in a big wave.