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the national bureau of statistics will release economic data for august on september 14. according to institutional analysis, since august, the policy of stabilizing growth has been implemented, the policy effect has been further released, and industrial demand has gradually recovered. however, the downward pressure on the overall economy still exists, the domestic effective demand is still insufficient, and the consumption potential of residents needs to be further released.

the latest "cbn chief economist confidence index" released by cbn research institute is 49.96, below the boom-bust line of 50. economists believe that under the influence of internal and external disturbances, my country's economic recovery is still under pressure, and further policies to stabilize the economy are needed to restore effective demand.

on behalf of the state council, xiang libin, deputy director of the national development and reform commission, reported to the 11th meeting of the 14th national people's congress standing committee on the implementation of the national economic and social development plan since this year on the 10th. in his report, xiang libin introduced that based on the relevant data on economic and social development currently available and the information obtained from all parties, the implementation of the plan is generally good. the adverse effects brought about by changes in the external environment have increased, domestic effective demand is insufficient, economic operations have diverged, there are still many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and there are pains in the conversion of new and old growth drivers.

xiang libin said that in the second half of the year, we must increase the intensity of macro-policy regulation, strengthen innovation-driven development, deeply tap the potential of domestic demand, continuously enhance new momentum and new advantages, enhance the vitality of business entities, stabilize market expectations, enhance social confidence, enhance the trend of sustained economic recovery, effectively protect and improve people's livelihood, maintain social stability, and unswervingly complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

industrial growth rate may continue to decline

the results of the chief survey of china business network showed that the average forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in august was 4.77%, lower than the published data of 5.1% last month.

judging from the leading indicators, affected by factors such as recent high temperatures and heavy rains and the off-season for some industries, the manufacturing pmi continued to fall to 49.1% in august, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and has been below the boom-bust line for four consecutive months.

according to a research report by the macro team of citic securities, the manufacturing pmi in august was 1.8 percentage points lower than the seasonal average of the past five years, indicating that the production activities of manufacturing enterprises in august contracted due to factors such as the traditional off-season for manufacturing, insufficient domestic effective demand, and high temperatures and heavy rains in some areas. high-frequency data also showed that industrial production turned marginally cold in august, with the average daily crude steel output in august down 7.7% year-on-year, and the average blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills down 4.8 percentage points from the same period in 2023 to 78.8%. overall, the citic macro team expects that the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in august will drop to around 4.5%.

lu zhengwei, chief economist of industrial bank, said that the operating rates of major industrial products diverged in august. rebar continued to be disturbed by the switch to national standards, and crude steel output weakened; tire operating rates continued to fluctuate, and the trend of semi-steel tires being better than full-steel tires continued, but the gap narrowed; the operating rates of the pta industry chain diverged, with the upstream operating rate continuing to rebound while the mid- and downstream operating rates fell. taking into account the impact of last year's base, the number of working days and this year's special weather, the industrial added value in august may fall by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year compared with the previous month.

the base number is raised and the consumption growth rate may slow down

economists participating in the first financial chief survey predicted that the average year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in august would be 2.61%, slightly lower than the announced value of 2.7% last month.

wen bin, chief economist of minsheng bank, said that the summer travel and the "olympic fever" in august drove the continuous rise of consumption in the integration of culture, sports, business and tourism, and the national policy of doubling the scrapping and renewal subsidies boosted the auto market. however, considering the impact of the increased base in the same period last year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to remain basically the same as last month's 2.7%. in terms of major commodities, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal services, culture, sports and entertainment industries related to residents' travel and consumption are all in a high prosperity range of more than 55%, and the business activity index of accommodation, catering and scenic spot service-related industries are all above 50%.

as a major consumer product, automobiles account for about 10% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in china. in august, automobile production and sales reached 2.492 million and 2.453 million respectively, up 9% and 8.5% month-on-month, and down 3.2% and 5% year-on-year respectively.

citic securities said that with the strengthening of the old-for-new policy, the marginal recovery of automobile sales may provide some support for the growth rate of social retail sales, but it is likely to remain at a low range of around 3.0%. since july, the overall subsidy for the old-for-new policy has increased, which may effectively boost subsequent consumption, but the effect still needs to be released slowly. due to the marginal slowdown in residents' income, service consumption may still remain weak.

manufacturing investment may maintain high growth

economists participating in the first financial chief survey predicted that the average growth rate of fixed asset investment in august would be 3.58%, slightly lower than the published data of 3.6% last month.

lian ping, president of guangkai chief industry research institute, said during the chief survey of yicai global that investment will maintain steady growth in the third quarter, especially manufacturing investment will grow rapidly to offset the rapid decline in real estate investment. factors such as export growth, science and technology innovation policies, equipment renewal and replacement of old equipment with new equipment, and financial support in the third quarter will promote the continued rapid growth of the manufacturing industry. manufacturing production and investment will be the biggest highlight of the economy in the third quarter.

lian ping believes that the weakness in investment, consumption, prices, employment, income, credit, m1, financial management and the stock market this year is mainly due to real estate, in addition to insufficient market confidence and unstable expectations. real estate is the leading factor in insufficient domestic demand, and the risks in the real estate industry are the main risks to economic operation in the short and medium term. this round of adjustment may be a large-scale adjustment to the real estate market that has been overheated for decades.

lu ting, chief economist of nomura china, predicts that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate from january to august will remain unchanged at 3.6%, but the year-on-year growth rate in august will rise to 3.2% from 1.9% in july. this moderate growth is partly due to the lower base in 2023, coupled with the support of manufacturing and infrastructure investment, while real estate investment will continue to be a drag. he expects the decline in real estate investment in august to widen to 11.9%.

still facing the challenge of insufficient demand

the current macroeconomic operation is facing problems such as insufficient domestic effective demand and the pain of the transformation of new and old growth drivers. to achieve the annual economic and social goals, macroeconomic policies need to be more powerful. the fifth plenary meeting of the state council in august required that efforts be focused on implementing the reform deployment, using further comprehensive deepening of reform as a powerful driving force, doing a solid job in all aspects, and unswervingly completing the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.

the above-mentioned state council meeting emphasized that we must stick to the goal and make great efforts to strengthen the sustained recovery of the economy. the meeting made specific arrangements for promoting consumption, expanding investment, expanding opening up, and improving the level of legalization of government work, and clearly proposed to do a good job in stabilizing employment for key groups, study and formulate policy measures to promote the increase of urban and rural residents' income, and ensure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level.

yi gang, former governor of the people's bank of china, said during the 6th bund financial summit on the 6th that china is facing the problem of weak domestic demand, especially in consumption and investment. china should now focus on resisting deflationary pressure and hopes that china's producer price index will be close to zero by the end of this year. it is necessary to adopt active fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies to support growth.

wu ge, chief economist of changjiang securities, said during a survey conducted by yicai global that the government is expected to accelerate the implementation of established policies. however, the inertia of economic slowdown continued in the third quarter, and the sharp negative growth in land transfer income is difficult to change in the short term. even if debt incremental tools are launched, it is still challenging to what extent their scale and time lag can fill the current demand gap, and a combination of monetary and other policies is urgently needed.

cai wei, chief strategy officer of kpmg china consulting, also believes that the necessity of increasing policies to expand domestic demand and support the traditional economic momentum in the next stage will increase. the policy focus may fall on finance, consumption, manufacturing, real estate and other fields. first, the issuance of special bonds accelerated significantly in august, and it is expected that the issuance rhythm will continue to accelerate in september to support the growth rate of infrastructure investment. secondly, the "two new" policies are constantly being implemented and detailed, and the boosting effect on consumption and manufacturing investment will gradually emerge; there is also the possibility of further strengthening the real estate stabilization policy. finally, considering the local fiscal and debt pressures, the policy direction of expanding domestic demand may shift to central leverage, and the possibility of issuing additional treasury bonds this year cannot be ruled out.