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on september 11, the market fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with the chinext index rebounding and the shanghai composite index hitting a new low. as of the close, the shanghai composite index fell 0.82%, the shenzhen component index rose 0.39%, and the chinext index rose 1.19%.

in terms of sectors, lithium mining, batteries, photovoltaics, virtual power plants and other sectors saw the largest increases, while e-commerce, education, banking, pharmaceutical commerce and other sectors saw the largest decreases.

overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 3,500 stocks falling in the market. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 499.6 billion, down 28 billion from the previous trading day.

although trading volume continues to be sluggish, a-shares seem to be approaching a new cycle.

today, the shanghai composite index was weak throughout the day, hitting a recent low of 2710.62 points during the session; on the other hand, the chinext index closed up nearly 1.2%, marking the third consecutive increase this week (tuesday was a false negative line).

behind the "ice and fire" of the index is the continued decline of dividend assets and the collective strengthening of the new energy track.

at the same time, high-priced stocks are still caught in the limit-down trend, although the restrictions have been slightly loosened.

what kind of signal does such a market convey?

dividend stocks plunged: cnooc crossed below the annual line during the session, and yangtze power experienced the largest single-day drop in nearly two years

today, stocks of the "big three oil companies", china shenhua, shaanxi coal industry and others continued to fall, which also affected other high-dividend assets such as banks, highways, and electricity.

icbc hit a 20-day low during trading.

cnooc fell more than 5% during the trading session, the first time it has fallen below the annual line since its listing. since peaking on july 3, the stock has been adjusting for two months.

another high-dividend core stock, china yangtze power, finally broke through and plunged in volume more than a month after its share price peaked and adjusted back, recording the largest single-day drop in nearly two years (-5.15%) during the session.

the stock's last big drop dates back to october 25, 2022 (-5.02%).

affected by the pullback of these heavyweight stocks, the shanghai composite index's "make-up decline" is inevitable. from the daily k-line chart, the shenzhen composite index and the chinext index are still running within the box, while the shanghai composite index has no obvious signs of stopping the decline.

according to china business news, some fund managers believe that dividend stocks, especially the "big four" and "big three oil companies", have negative factors that cause them to continue to pull back, but their own stability is destined to have limited pullbacks. the technology stocks that pulled back to low levels earlier are not all negative. the recent frequent performance of huawei themes and the support of the mid-year performance of high-quality chip companies will inevitably usher in opportunities for a wave of rebounds. therefore, the market is brewing a phased rebound after the decline, but the sentiment is insufficient and the rebound strength is limited.

the "lithium king" rarely hits the daily limit! why is the new energy track so strong?

in the early trading today, the new energy sector collectively strengthened. from the market point of view, the energy metal sector rose first, followed by solid-state batteries, photovoltaics, pet copper foil and other sectors.

tianqi lithium, the "lithium king", hit the daily limit after a rare lapse of nearly nine months.

in addition, lithium carbonate futures also saw an explosion.

although medical, communications, new energy and other sectors have been on the list of gainers in the three trading days this week, the overall bottoming out and rebound of the new energy track has shown a certain degree of continuity: first inverters and wind power equipment, then solid-state batteries, and then energy metals, photovoltaics and other sub-sectors.

some people believe that judging from the semi-annual report results disclosed not long ago, my country's new energy industry chain is currently in a clear bottom recovery range, with many highlights such as rapid growth in the export industry chain, unexpected growth in global large-scale energy storage business, and leading companies showing development resilience. coupled with the low industry valuation and being at the bottom of the long cycle, the long-term investment value of the new energy sector is becoming increasingly prominent.

in recent news, the latest statistics released by the china association of automobile manufacturers show that in august 2024, china's new energy vehicle production and sales will reach 1.092 million and 1.1 million respectively, up 29.6% and 30% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales have reached 44.8% of total new vehicle sales. from january to august, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 7.008 million and 7.037 million respectively, up 29% and 30.9% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales reached 37.5% of total new vehicle sales.

the china passenger car association predicts that in the next four months, the monthly penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger car retail sales will continue to exceed that of fuel vehicles, and this year the monthly penetration rate of new energy passenger car market in my country may exceed 55%. this means that the previously set goal of more than 50% penetration rate of new energy vehicle market by 2035 is expected to be achieved 10 years ahead of schedule.

with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, the demand for lithium carbonate, as the main raw material for power batteries, has increased significantly. albemarle, the world's largest lithium metal producer, predicts that lithium demand will reach 1.5 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (lce) in 2025 and will exceed 3 million tons by 2030. the annualized demand growth rate exceeds 20%.

regarding the photovoltaic sector, market participants said that although the photovoltaic industry is still in a state of oversupply, with the active response of industry leaders and policy support, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is gradually improving. as of the end of august, silicon wafer inventory has dropped to 25gw and is expected to decline further in september. in addition, according to statistics from the national energy administration, my country's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 27.1% year-on-year from january to july 2024, showing a steady growth in market demand.

details that cannot be ignored: high-priced stocks are still receding

although other indices except the shanghai composite index performed well, what cannot be ignored is that today individual stocks fell more than they rose, and the shrinking and retreating of high-priced stocks since monday this week has not stopped.

as of the close, there were still many stocks on the limit-down list that had recently been on the limit-down list. however, the number of times that the limit-down was lifted during trading increased slightly.

shenzhen huaqiang, which was the first to be affected by capital yesterday, closed up slightly by 1.84% today, bringing a glimmer of hope for the recovery of short-term sentiment.

how long will it take for this round of adjustment to bottom out?

wang xiaohua, an investment consultant at orient securities, believes that the financing of the bond market is still accelerating in september, and the central bank has not excessively injected liquidity, resulting in the overall tight liquidity situation in the market. the overseas slow rate cut rhythm is expected to start, which is beneficial to the moderate release of global demand. it is expected that after the peak of bond market financing in september has passed, the market may have room for rebound after the liquidity is improved by monetary policy in the fourth quarter. in addition, with the landing of physical workload, the fundamentals are expected to be consolidated in the first quarter of next year, forming a bottom resonance.

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