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is the catalyst for nvidia's rise coming? watch jen-hsun huang's speech on wednesday

2024-09-11

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after falling nearly 14% last week to a one-month low, nvidia may see a catalyst for its stock price to rise on wednesday. on that day, nvidia ceo huang renxun will speak at a goldman sachs conference in san francisco and plans to talk with goldman sachs ceo solomon at 7:20 a.m. local time.

due to the lack of other positive factors to push up the stock price, coupled with the general impact of concerns on the entire technology industry, blackwell's obstacles have exacerbated the market's concerns that nvidia, as the darling of the ai ​​concept, has risen too much and too fast. since the release of its financial report after the market on august 28, nvidia has fallen by more than 10%. as of the close of tuesday, which recorded a two-day rebound, nvidia's stock price has fallen by nearly 14%.

at the beginning of last month, the media broke the news that the release of nvidia's latest blackwell series chips would be delayed by three months or more. at the end of last month, nvidia's second-quarter results continued to be better than expected, but failed to ease investors' concerns about the production of blackwell chips. nvidia executives said that blackwell samples had been delivered in the second quarter, and the delivery time was delayed by several weeks due to mask defects in the production process. blackwell has been improved, and it is expected that blackwell chips will bring billions of dollars in revenue in the fourth quarter. it did not answer whether these billions of dollars in revenue are incremental.

later, it was commented that nvidia's second-quarter performance was excellent, but the market had too high expectations for this top student. investors are used to nvidia's blowout growth that exceeds expectations every quarter, and nvidia's third-quarter revenue guidance shows that revenue will slow from five consecutive quarters of triple-digit percentage growth to nearly 80%, which is interpreted by some as a sign of cooling demand for ai chips. huang renxun tried to reassure the market after the release of the financial report last month, saying that revenue from blackwell chips would arrive soon, but some investors are still eager to know the details.

wall street journal mentioned that analysts believe that the most important news in nvidia's second quarter earnings conference call is that nvidia admitted that there are some problems with the upcoming blackwell chip design. analysts wanted more details about the launch of the blackwell product line, but nvidia did not provide them, which caused nvidia's stock price to fall sharply during the earnings conference call. the market has two major concerns: when blackwell can become a new engine for nvidia's performance growth, and whether the demand for ai chips can maintain high growth.

regarding huang renxun's speech during the goldman sachs conference on wednesday, the issue of blackwell chip will be the focus of attention. investors are eager to get the latest progress on the development of the chip, hoping that a catalyst will reverse the stock price decline.

“nobody likes delays. this is one of those little hiccups that investors are watching for,” said brian mulberry, client portfolio manager at zacks investment management inc. while nvidia has done a good job of managing expectations, “they could probably do a better job of communicating, especially on the blackwell issue.”

analysts at bank of america corp. share the same view, writing in a research note last week that details about blackwell chip shipment readiness are a key fundamental catalyst for nvidia's stock rebound.