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democratic presidential candidate kamala harris and republican opponent donald trump will hold their first face-to-face debate in philadelphia on tuesday evening eastern time (wednesday morning beijing time) before the november vote. this showdown is of great importance and may cause more complications in the election, which is already full of uncertainties.

before the confrontation began, traders had already entered anxiety mode, and the us dollar volatility index and us stock panic vane rose. bloomberg analysis pointed out that when the two of them were going back and forth,onlookers can also use bitcoin's real-time trend to judge the initial impression its on-the-spot performance leaves on the market.

observation tips

the debate will begin at 9 p.m. eastern time (9 a.m. beijing time on wednesday) and will last 90 minutes; abc reporters david muir and linsey davis will serve as moderators.

philadelphia, where the debate is held, is located in the key battleground state of pennsylvania, and will be a major test for both harris and trump.

anyone can watch it on the tv channel of organizer abc news. in addition, abc news live, disney+ and hulu will also broadcast it live, and other tv networks including bloomberg tv will broadcast it simultaneously.

key points

harris: the former prosecutor has not participated in a public debate for many years and has not yet elaborated on her policy agenda and vision. after taking over from current president biden as the democratic candidate, she has basically not been tested in an impromptu speaking environment. this time she must seize the opportunity to introduce herself to people who are not familiar with her resume and avoid criticism of the current administration.

trump: after his old rival biden suddenly withdrew from the election, trump, who was convicted of a felony, has been struggling to define his new opponent, and his advanced age of 78 is a major disadvantage for him.

this matter is serious

perhaps no election in recent history has been more influenced by a debate than this one, with biden's poor performance in the june debate with trump heightening concerns about his age and acumen, and ultimately forcing him to give up and hand over the baton to harris.

recent bloomberg news/morning consult polls show the two candidates neck and neck, with harris leading or tying with trump in seven battleground states.

across the country, according to the realclearpolitics poll average, harris maintains a slight lead over trump; a new york times and siena college national poll conducted from september 3 to 6 showed that trump's support rate was one percentage point ahead of harris. a quinnipiac university poll of potential voters in battleground states shortly before the debate found that trump and harris were tied in georgia and north carolina. in a recent npr/pbs/marist national poll, harris beat trump by a narrow margin of 49% to 48%.

field of confrontation

taxes: both trump and harris support eliminating the tip income tax

harris has also unveiled measures aimed at providing first-time homebuyers with $25,000 down payments and curbing the costs of rent and groceries. she has proposed a ninefold increase in the small business startup cost tax deduction and a 28% capital gains tax on those earning $1 million or more.

trump has pledged to cut taxes for businesses, individuals and retirees, and last week pledged to slash the corporate tax rate to 15%, roll back regulations and audit the federal government.

abortion:

harris highlighted conservative supreme court justices appointed by trump who overturned federal abortion protections.

trump is torn between supporting reproductive rights while appealing to voters without angering important factions within the republican party.

immigration and crime:

trump is likely to take aim at border security and crime, accusing harris of being responsible for his administration’s immigration policies, arguing that one of her responsibilities as vice president is to address the root causes of undocumented immigration into the united states from three central american countries.

harris said she supports a bipartisan immigration bill that would fund the construction of more border wall along the u.s.-mexico border.

china:

it is expected that china will inevitably be mentioned in the debate between the two, and the discussion on imposing additional tariffs and more technological restrictions on china is worthy of attention.

recently, trump called for a 100% tariff on countries that avoid the us dollar, and proposed a general 10% tariff on all imported goods, with the tax rate on chinese goods being as high as at least 60%.

harris' campaign signals, however, indicate that she will not further deepen the huge rift between the world's two largest economies.

a basket of u.s. stocks with high direct exposure to china compiled by jpmorgan chase covers sectors such as semiconductors, industrials, materials, automobiles and healthcare. stocks worth paying attention to include nvidia, broadcom, apple, tesla, otis worldwide and agilent technologies.

analysts including wang hao of guotai junan securities said that increased bargaining may lead to greater market volatility, and the tough stance against china in the debate will affect sino-us relations to a certain extent.

volatility first

the debate has not yet begun, but for investors assessing election risks, the mood is far more anxious and apprehensive than when biden and trump faced off in june.

the bloomberg dollar index’s three-month implied volatility gauge is approaching its highest level since the u.s. regional banking crisis in march 2023. the spot gauge moved higher, with the yen and swiss franc rising.

the yuan fell for the third consecutive trading day, with the offshore yuan falling 0.2% to 7.1351 against the u.s. dollar, the lowest since august 28; the onshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.12, closing at its lowest level since september 3.

wells fargo believes that if harris wins the election, the dollar may weaken because it may mean decentralized control of congress, limited room for fiscal expansion, and reduced policy uncertainty.

commerzbank strategists noted that trump's plan to impose the dollar's dominance in global trade is likely to cause economic chaos and ultimately weaken the dollar.

the mexican peso and the chinese yuan are the most sensitive to trump's comments on tariffs. while near-term forecasts remain bullish, traders are betting on further depreciation of the yuan towards the end of the year after the u.s. election in november.

u.s. stock market's 'fear gauge' rises again

fixed-income traders face even greater turbulence as mixed economic signals have left markets unsure about how much and when the federal reserve will cut interest rates.

after the june debate with biden, market forecasts for trump's victory increased, putting pressure on long-term u.s. treasuries and steepening the yield curve as traders adjusted their positions to hedge against the risk that trump's tax and trade policies could lead to higher inflation.

watch the "coin" move

investors can watch bitcoin for clues about who has the upper hand during the debate, as it surged during his june debate with biden as the billionaire has turned public in his support for cryptocurrencies.

the volatility suggests the coin could be a real-time indicator of the relative performance of both sides in the debate. if bitcoin rises, it could mean that viewers think trump performed better.

harris has yet to detail her policy stance on digital assets, but the current administration has also cracked down on the cryptocurrency industry, led by the u.s. securities and exchange commission.

but investors should be careful; cryptocurrencies may provide clues, but they are too mysterious and volatile to be relied upon alone.