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[global times pakistan correspondent yao xiao, global times reporter chen zishuai] a recent report released by the indian institute of human development shows that india's total working-age population is expected to peak in 2036 and then decline, indicating that india is entering the last window of "demographic dividend". bloomberg said that india faces multiple risks in achieving its demographic dividend.

data map: in january 2024, indian workers gathered at the industrial training institute to seek employment. (visual china)

the indian institute of human development said that as the proportion of young people and children in india's population decreases, the population structure has begun to change, gradually transforming from a "pyramid shape" to a "spindle shape." it is estimated that by 2036, 15% of india's population will be over 60 years old, and this proportion will grow rapidly thereafter. by then, indian society is likely to enter an aging stage without accumulating enough resources.

bloomberg said that if india wants to tap its human potential, the challenges it needs to overcome include reducing discrimination against female workers and getting more people into formal employment. data showed that as of march, india's overall unemployment rate for the year was 8.05%, higher than 7.56% in the previous 12 months. among people aged 20 to 24, the proportion was 42.8%. devashish mitra, professor of economics at syracuse university in new york, said: "if the gap between the number of workers and market demand is not handled well, the demographic dividend can easily become a demographic curse."

xie chao, associate researcher at the center for south asian studies at fudan university, told the global times on the 8th that the unemployment rate among young people has remained high since indian prime minister modi took office because the education level and labor skills of young people have not been improved in a timely manner. previously, india's national resources were too inclined towards high-tech industries, which did not conform to the characteristics of india's population structure and made it difficult to play the role of the demographic dividend. bloomberg also said that india should give priority to labor-intensive industries such as tourism and healthcare, and expand production-related incentive programs to increase employment.

currently, india is increasing its investment in national education. the number of students enrolled in higher education has reached 43 million, an increase of 26.5% over 2014. in his speech on india's independence day, modi mentioned that the most important task of the government is to improve india's transportation infrastructure and make good use of india's population advantages to create more jobs, especially for young people.

but it is difficult to create so many jobs. bloomberg believes that due to the poor performance of the bharatiya janata party led by modi during the 2024 general election, the government is likely to have to shift some of the investments that are conducive to promoting employment to policy benefits for the people, which will further affect the increase in india's employment rate.