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[goldman sachs analysis shows that historically, after the fed cuts interest rates, the median return on asian stocks is 9% in a non-recessionary environment in the united states, and -5% in a recessionary environment.]

although the us non-farm payrolls report showed that the job market was beginning to cool, it was not enough for the federal reserve to start a rate cut cycle by 50bp (basis points). wall street reached a consensus on a 25bp first rate cut in september.

the number of non-farm payrolls in the united states increased by 142,000 in august, lower than expected. the data for july and june were revised downward, but the august data was not weak. in addition, the unemployment rate fell by 3 basis points to 4.22%. the number of new entrants into the market further increased, and the average hourly wage in august increased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly higher than expected.

eric robertsen, global chief strategist at standard chartered, said that the data is not enough for the fed to cut interest rates by 50bp, but since the fed has more room to cut interest rates than the eurozone and the uk, and japan will continue to raise interest rates, it is expected that as interest rate spreads converge, the us dollar will continue to weaken in 2025 after consolidating this year.

as a "soft landing" of the us economy remains the basic assumption, all sectors are optimistic about the prospects of risky assets. goldman sachs analysis shows that historically, after the fed cut interest rates, the median return rate of asian stocks was 9% in the absence of a recession in the united states, and -5% in recession conditions.

how might this time be different? for china, the focus is on downside risks to growth rather than the fed cycle. fiscal policy easing will be key to stabilizing activity indicators. japan is the only regional economy where monetary policy is tightening, and stocks are likely to perform well despite higher rates, while further yen appreciation would pose risks, especially to export-related sectors.