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【text/guardian network liu chenghui】"as the global economy slows, mainland china is the only region where spending on chip manufacturing equipment continues to increase year-on-year." japan's nikkei asian review published an article on september 2, pointing out that as the united states steps up efforts to obstruct china's acquisition of advanced semiconductor technology, china is accelerating the localization of chip production. mainland china's spending on chip manufacturing tools in the first half of this year reached a record $25 billion, exceeding the total of the united states, south korea and taiwan, and total spending for the whole year is expected to reach $50 billion.

the article states that china is the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, and in response to the risks of further export restrictions from the west, china is vigorously promoting the localization of chip supply. according to data from the international semiconductor equipment and materials association (semi), in the first six months of this year, mainland china's spending on chip manufacturing tools reached a record high of us$25 billion, and maintained a strong spending momentum in july, which is expected to set a new annual record.

semi's report also shows that in the second quarter of 2024, global semiconductor equipment shipments increased by 4% year-on-year to us$26.8 billion, and increased slightly by 1% month-on-month over the same period. among them, mainland china's semiconductor equipment shipments in the second quarter of this year amounted to us$12.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%.

global semiconductor equipment shipments according to semi statistics (in billion u.s. dollars)

“global semiconductor equipment shipments totaled $53.2 billion in the first half of 2024, reflecting the health of the industry to date,” said ajit manocha, president and ceo of semi. “the semiconductor equipment market has returned to growth, driven by strategic investments to support continued strong demand for advanced technologies, and all regions are working to strengthen their chip manufacturing ecosystems.”

statistics released by the general administration of customs of china last month showed that from january to july 2024, my country's imports of semiconductor equipment hit a new high, with 36,000 units of imported semiconductor manufacturing equipment, an increase of 17.1% over last year, and the amount reached 163.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%. during the same period, my country's semiconductor imports continued to expand, with a total import of 285.9 billion diodes and similar semiconductor devices, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with a value of 96.4 billion yuan, and a total import of integrated circuits of 308.1 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with a value of 150.67 billion yuan.

on june 12, 2024, the 10th china international technology import and export fair (shanghai fair) was held in shanghai. "shu ming semiconductor" booth, automotive chips. ic photo

the article points out that semiconductor equipment investment is an important indicator of future market demand and a barometer of industry prospects. china is expected to become the largest investor in building new chip factories and purchasing related equipment, with total annual spending expected to reach us$50 billion. semi predicts that given the trend of localization of semiconductor production, annual related spending in southeast asia, the united states, europe and japan will increase significantly by 2027.

"we see china continuing to buy all the equipment for its new mature node chip manufacturing facilities," clark tseng, senior director of market intelligence at semi, said at a press conference. "concerns about potential further restrictions (export controls) are also prompting them to buy more equipment in advance."

he also said that china's record investment in chip production equipment is not only driven by top chipmakers such as smic, but also benefited from the growth momentum of small and medium-sized chipmakers. "at least a dozen second-tier chipmakers are also actively purchasing new tools. this has jointly driven china's overall spending."

the article stated that amid the global economic slowdown, mainland china was the only region where spending on chip manufacturing equipment continued to increase year-on-year. compared with the same period last year, spending on chip manufacturing equipment in south korea, north america and taiwan all decreased.

asml employees are maintaining the lithography machine. asml website

the semiconductor industry's growth of about 20% this year is mainly due to the recovery of market demand for memory chips and the surge in demand for artificial intelligence-related chips. as the automotive and industrial chip markets adjust, other industries have only achieved a modest growth of 3% to 5%.

"we expect another 20% growth in 2025, which will be another important year for equipment spending," said zeng ruiyu.

china is the largest source of revenue for top chip manufacturing equipment suppliers. according to the latest quarterly financial reports released by applied materials, lam research and kla-tencor, the chinese market contributed 32%, 39% and 44% of the revenue of applied materials, lam research and kla-tencor, respectively. the chinese market contributed even more to the revenue of tokyo electron of japan and asml of the netherlands - the information disclosed by the two companies showed that revenue in china accounted for 49.9% and 49% of their revenue in the second fiscal quarter, respectively.

the nikkei asian review also noted that driven by the ongoing acquisition boom, the capital intensity of china's chip industry has risen to more than 15% for four consecutive years since 2021. capital intensity, like global semiconductor sales, is an important indicator of the balance between supply and demand in the chip industry. zeng ruiyu believes: "in the past 30 years, capital intensity has been below 15%. now it seems that more than 15% will become a new normal."

hong kong english media south china morning post noted on july 23 that chen nanxiang, chairman of the china semiconductor industry association, said in an interview that china's chip industry has not yet achieved explosive growth, but this day will eventually come.

chen nanxiang predicted that while moore's law no longer works, china will benefit from new packaging technologies. with its advantages in application and packaging technology, china's chip industry will achieve "explosive growth" within 3 to 5 years, paving the way for china to overcome us technology restrictions.

asml ceo christophe fouquet said at a citibank conference in new york on september 4 that over time, the export controls imposed by the united states on china in the name of "national security" have become more like "economic motives."

"it's getting harder and harder to prove that this is a matter of national security." fuquet predicts that there will be more and more voices opposing us regulation in the future. "it's likely that there will be greater pressure for restrictions, but at the same time there will be more opposition."