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as the mid-autumn festival and national day approach, the liquor market is about to usher in the traditional peak season for consumption. however, the liquor benchmark feitian moutai has experienced a rare drop in price during the peak season in recent years. market feedback shows that this year's mid-autumn festival liquor consumption market is not as good as in previous years. in the past month, the wholesale price of feitian moutai has been falling more than rising.

on september 6, the latest reference price disclosed by today's wine price showed that the wholesale price of the original box of feitian moutai in 2024 has dropped to 2,595 yuan/bottle, falling below the 2,600 yuan mark.

on september 6, the latest reference price disclosed by today's wine price showed that the wholesale reference price of feitian moutai in 2024 is 2,365 yuan/bottle, and the wholesale price of the original box has dropped to 2,595 yuan/bottle, falling below the 2,600 yuan mark. how is the market retail price? the reporter visited several moutai liquor stores in jinan and learned that recently, the retail price and recycling price of feitian moutai have fallen to varying degrees. the retail price of bulk feitian moutai is around 2,400 yuan/bottle; the recycling price is around 2,200 yuan/bottle.

many liquor industry analysts believe that the current problem of the entire liquor industry is still insufficient social purchasing power. as the supply of famous liquors continues to increase, their scarcity will also decrease. if demand growth lags behind, price pressure will increase further.

the price of feitian moutai continues to fall, and some wine merchants directly claim that "the price will not rise within march"

"today, a single bottle sells for 2,400 yuan, and a box sells for 2,650 yuan." only a week away from the mid-autumn festival, the price of moutai continues to fall. on september 6, the owner of a tobacco and alcohol store in lixia district, jinan, told reporters that the price of moutai has continued to fall recently. "on august 15, a single bottle was still selling for 2,500 yuan, and it has dropped by 100 yuan in half a month."

in a tobacco and liquor store in licheng district, jinan, when the reporter asked about the price of moutai, the owner complained bitterly, "the price can't go back to where it was, it can't go back anymore. a few days ago, a brand distributor released 300 boxes of goods to a store. there must be one or two hundred stores of this brand in jinan." the owner said that the original box of moutai in his store sold for 2,600 yuan per bottle that day, which was 200 yuan lower than the market price of 2,800 yuan per bottle half a month ago. "in fact, it is a normal release of goods before the festival, but this year is different from previous years. this year's sales are not good, there is a lot of goods but little demand, so the price can't go up."

"i have been in the wine business for more than ten years, and i am very familiar with the market conditions every year. there is still demand in the market, but the prices are not good. after the mid-autumn festival, the prices will go down even further." during the visit, a senior owner of a tobacco and wine shop told reporters that he learned that some distributors received moutai at a price of 2,730 yuan per bottle for a box of original moutai, and the current market price is around 2,600 yuan per bottle. "a large distributor bought 5 million yuan worth of goods at one time. if he wants to get the money back, he can only sell at a loss, more than 100 yuan per bottle."

"the price will not rise for at least three months, and will drop to around 2,100 yuan per bottle." a wine merchant told reporters that in mid-august, sales and shipments were still considerable. "before the festival (mid-autumn festival), there are more people visiting relatives and giving gifts. in fact, every year in the first half of the month before the mid-autumn festival, the price will drop, and it will be relatively stable until the chinese new year."

on september 6, after pinduoduo's 10 billion yuan subsidy, a double bottle of feitian moutai was sold for 4,550 yuan, and the unit price was far lower than the offline retail price.

according to analysis, when the wholesale price of moutai plummeted in june this year, the low-price promotions on e-commerce platforms were also considered to be one of the reasons for the accelerated price drop, especially recently some e-commerce platforms have increased subsidies for famous liquors again, causing the online prices of famous liquors to fall again. taking the pinduoduo platform as an example, on september 6, the price of a double bottle of feitian moutai after pinduoduo's 10 billion yuan subsidy was 4,550 yuan, which is as low as 2,275 yuan per bottle, far lower than the offline retail price.

already entered the "mid-autumn festival" shipment market in advance

"don't wait any longer. i suggest you sell it now. selling now is the last chance to catch the last train." the recycling market also showed a downward trend. on the afternoon of september 6, at a tobacco and alcohol recycling store on jiefang road in jinan, the owner said that many people who received moutai liquor were gradually shipping it out, so the price would continue to fall. "today, the original box is 2,400 yuan/bottle, and the single bottle is 2,200 yuan/bottle. it will fall further."

"today, if we recycle, the price for a box of moutai is 2,550 yuan per bottle, and the price for a single bottle is 2,260 yuan per bottle, which is a good price." at another tobacco and alcohol recycling store on jiefang road, the owner also said that the recycling price of moutai continues to fall. "we now sell it for 100 yuan more, for fear that the price will be inverted again and we will be left with a lot of pressure."

during the visit, many recycling shop owners said that there have been new changes in the moutai recycling market this year. due to the supply and demand relationship, as well as the early peak of demand, the market has entered the "mid-autumn festival" shipment market in advance. as the festival approaches, shipments will increase accordingly, so the moutai recycling price will continue to decline.

the "2024 china liquor market mid-term research report" previously released by the china alcoholic drinks association shows that the problem of "high inventory" in the liquor market will be prominent in 2024. compared with the same period last year, in the first half of 2024, more than 60% of distributors and terminal retailers said that their inventory increased, more than 30% said they faced cash flow pressure, more than 40% said that the degree of inversion of actual sales prices increased, and more than 50% said that their profit margins decreased.

in fact, it is not just feitian moutai. since august, with the approaching of the traditional wine sales peak season "golden september and silver october", the market prices of famous wines represented by moutai's major products have not seen a general price increase and a surge in demand as in previous years. on the contrary, channel prices have been fluctuating in recent times, and market demand has not recovered significantly.

(source: poster news)

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