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which nato "big fish" might have been sent away by the russian military's missiles this time?

2024-09-07

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in recent years, many people have been discussing how the russian army can seize the initiative when there is a clear generation gap in the informationization level of the russian and ukrainian armies?

the facts have already given the answer - eliminate those who are going to wage information warfare at the source.

not long ago, russian missiles attacked two schools in ukraine, one in poltava, the capital of poltava oblast, and the other in sumy, the capital of sumy oblast. the combined casualties from the two schools exceeded 600-700.

afterwards, ukraine immediately strongly condemned the russian army's bombing of schools, a "civilian target", and determined that this was a crime and an inhumane act.

russia threw up its hands and directly retorted that the two schools were originally military targets. the casualties were also military personnel, so there was nothing wrong with this round of strikes.

just look at the two schools that were bombed, one is the poltava military communications academy; the other is sumy state university.

let's talk about the poltava military communications academy first. it is a well-known old military academy in the former soviet era.

compared with the frontline in eastern ukraine, the location of this military academy, poltava, poltava oblast, is actually just a rear city and is relatively safe. for this reason, the ukrainian army used the poltava military communications academy as a training base for electronic warfare and drone operators.

however, although poltava is hundreds of kilometers away from the front line in eastern ukraine, it is still within the range of iskander missiles.

it is said that when the attack took place, the 179th joint training battalion of the ukrainian army was receiving training from foreign instructors here. the russian side had repeatedly confirmed through intelligence and other means beforehand that it had accurately attacked this military target and all missiles hit it.

there is also sumy state university. unlike the poltava military academy, sumy state is located on the russian-ukrainian border. therefore, the russian army was reluctant to use missiles, but directly used high-power guided bombs.

it is currently speculated that the russian army may have used the 500 kg bomb carried by the su-34 (its range has recently been upgraded to 85 kilometers, which allows the su-3-4 to be safely launched outside the range of ukrainian air defense missiles).

moreover, the russian army only bombed one building on the campus.

according to some sources, this building is actually a secret "training base" of the ukrainian army, where "foreign instructors" specialize in training courses on electronic warfare and drone operations.

apparently, russia, which has been suffering from drone attacks on its territory, is working to address the problem at the source - physically destroying these foreign groups of "experts" and their ukrainian trainees.

especially at the poltava military communications academy, when the russian missiles whizzed in, the instructors had just gathered their trainees for training, so the casualties were very serious.

however, kiev still insisted that the russian army attacked "non-military targets" and that the casualties were all ukrainian civilians. because even if they were military cadets who were assembled for training, they did not have the status of soldiers before they went to the battlefield, and russia was deliberately attacking civilians.

on the other side, russia stated that it was attacking "reserve combatants" and a group of "foreign military instructors" and did not violate the laws of war.

could it be that when the russian missiles attacked, a large group of civilians happened to be walking on the military academy playground?

of course, the outside world is generally more curious about where these "foreign military instructors" come from?

in fact, the russian army has used iskander to destroy the ukrainian army and even nato mercenary gathering places many times before, but this is perhaps the first time that nato's reaction has been so great.

usually, that kind of grand public publicity is usually watered down, and things like this where the person doesn't make much of a noise after being beaten but the rescue efforts are very strong, may be the real "big thing".

after the poltava military communications academy was attacked, the united states, germany, poland and romania immediately dispatched six nato transport planes and passenger planes to send the wounded to hospitals in poland and berlin, germany for rescue. special police were specially arranged to escort the ambulances on the way to the hospital.

probably within 24 hours of the attack on the military academy, u.s. army lieutenant colonel joshua kamara was suddenly announced to have died in a training camp in poland. the cause of death has not yet been made public.

it is obvious that the death of lieutenant colonel kamara coincides with the timing of the russian attack.

the day after the attack, swedish foreign minister tobias billström suddenly announced his resignation, voluntarily gave up his seat in parliament, and claimed that he would retire from politics from then on.

that's strange.

billstrom has been in the position of foreign secretary for almost two years. the day before, he gave a passionate speech in support of ukraine and danced very vigorously. he did not show any signs of giving up his job.

in this regard, the outside world generally believes that bilstrom’s sudden resignation was mainly related to the excessive casualties of the "swedish instructors" in the attack the day before.

presumably, this is what happened.

after the outbreak of the russia-ukraine war, the ukrainian army, which originally inherited the soviet military system, began to extensively use nato electronic warfare systems and communication systems, and therefore urgently needed training from nato instructors.

in march this year, after sweden abandoned its neutral status and joined nato, it immediately made aid to ukraine a major issue. in june, it announced that it would provide ukraine with two saab globaleye early warning aircraft (although sweden has a low presence, it is actually a major military power).

early warning aircraft are generally very large in size, and in addition to conducting electronic warfare, they also serve as air command platforms. therefore, before they are put into actual combat, the training task for relevant personnel is very heavy.

obviously, it is not enough for one or two instructors to handle these things. it requires an entire technical support team, and they must be high-level experts. then, it will take several months of training and human-machine coordination to bring out the combat effectiveness.

after all, if these weapons, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars, are given to the ukrainian army without proper training, the result will definitely be a waste of money.

this is what the interior of the early warning aircraft looks like

at this point, some people may ask, since it is training, isn't it the same wherever it is? why not train the ukrainian army overseas? in this way, wouldn't it be safer to stay away from ukraine?

in fact, this may be nato’s “little trick”.

why do you think nato sent a team of early warning aircraft experts to ukraine? is it just for training?

is it possible that before or even after the training was completed, it was actually these "foreign experts" who were on duty on the early warning aircraft?

it can even be said that ukraine's information advantage, in addition to nato's equipment and nato's satellites, is inseparable from this group of "foreign experts" who are willing to take risks.

okay, let’s get back to sweden.

many analysts believe that a total of 37 swedish electronic warfare experts (all technical experts in sweden's airborne early warning system may not exceed 200 people) came to ukraine for "guidance and training" with two saab globaleye early warning aircraft. they were all concentrated in the poltava military communications academy.

as a result, when the two russian missiles arrived, the entire early warning aircraft expert team was destroyed.

swedish foreign minister tobias billström is the actual person in charge of sweden's affairs with nato. his work includes but is not limited to promoting sweden's accession to nato and related coordination matters.

therefore, if something goes wrong, he must bear primary responsibility and be the first person to take the blame.

in addition, for sweden alone, poltava is not an auspicious place.

the last time a swede was killed by the russians was in poltava, more than 200 years ago.

in 1709, during the great northern war, the russian army defeated the swedish army at the battle of poltava, essentially ending sweden's status as a european power.

now, poltava has really become a sad place for the swedes.

having said so much, let me summarize.

the reason why the russian attack this time was so mysterious and tense was mainly because the missiles did not severely damage the students (ukraine), but the teachers who ran tutoring classes in ukraine (nato experts and even active military personnel).

what is even more bizarre is that, before the attack, the russian military allegedly sent out a drone for reconnaissance. someone even spotted the drone's tracks at the time. but neither of the two training centers took any defensive measures.

these two training centers are precisely professional bases for training ukrainian military drone operators, communications and electronic warfare personnel.

i don’t know what nato’s early warning experts have “predicted”.

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