li xiaoyun: africa is striving to enter a stage of leapfrog development
2024-09-04
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on august 1 this year, tanzania's first modern standard gauge railway was officially opened to traffic. this railway, built with the participation of companies from china, turkey and other countries, has realized the country's long-cherished dream of connecting the capital dar es salaam with the central region through modern transportation.
what many people did not expect was that this railway was not only fully electrified, but also used advanced intelligent and digital technologies, with modern locomotive designs and spacious and comfortable rides. tanzanian media viewed this railway as a symbol of the country's "leapfrog development" in infrastructure construction and economic and social transformation.
africa's development pursuit shows leapfrogging characteristics
such landmark projects of modernization are now increasingly common in africa. a few years ago, the urban rapid transit network built and put into operation in dar es salaam was the first urban rapid transit system in sub-saharan africa and is known as the "african characteristic" symbol of urbanization. the mombasa-nairobi railway (standard gauge railway from mombasa to nairobi) built by china on the east african plateau is regarded as a "milestone" for africa's modernization. in kampala, the capital of uganda, an electric motorcycle company imported lithium batteries from china and began to produce electric motorcycles in uganda.
in terms of the proportion of economic types, africa's digital economy contributed only 1.1% of gdp in 2012, and increased to 4.5% by 2020. by 2025, africa's digital economy is expected to account for 8.5% of gdp. not only the new economy, africa is also re-examining its traditional agriculture. kenya's avocado production, which is mainly based on small farmers, has begun to challenge the traditional avocado producer, mexico, and this approach is setting off a new green agricultural revolution based on small farmers' production connecting to the global market.
on the one hand, inspired by the new wave of economic globalization and new technological changes, africa is no longer just focusing on its own minerals and resources, but has begun to bravely develop a new economy. this has formed a strong internal driving force. on the other hand, in recent years, african countries have actively responded to the global development initiative proposed by president xi jinping, and have closely carried out cooperation under the "belt and road" initiative, and the external driving force for rapid development has been increasing. africa has become a major partner in the continuous implementation of global development initiatives.
over the past decade, african countries have been striving to promote their own leapfrog development despite the inherent prejudice of the world (mainly western countries) that they are still regarded as "development depressions" and "poor continents", and initial results have been achieved. although this effort cannot be said to have completely changed the overall economic and social landscape of the african continent, looking at the industrial parks in ethiopia, the urban management and labor-intensive manufacturing development in kigali, rwanda, as well as the emergence of modern railways and roads, modern ports, etc., it is undoubtedly beginning to change people's traditional stereotypes of war, hunger, etc. in africa. observing the overall trend of african development in the context of the new economic globalization, the ambition of african countries to become middle-income countries and the leapfrog development pursuits adopted to achieve this goal can be said to be the most distinctive changes in african development, and can also be regarded as an impressive and beautiful landscape in the process of global development.
improving national development capabilities and china's experience
africa, especially sub-saharan africa, has always been the object of transformation in the colonial era. under the reliance on discourse, power and development path set by the west, africa's development has long relied on external aid and has been plagued by turmoil, poverty, low growth and debt. how to achieve independent development and get rid of the various constraints that have long plagued africa's development has become the most urgent issue for african countries after decolonization. in the past decade, the different development trend shown by the african continent is the result of this effort. from 2013 to 2023, the average economic growth of sub-saharan africa was 28.87%, and the poverty rate dropped from 38.9% to 35.4%. africa has seen a gratifying new development momentum.
the reason why african countries have been able to seize the opportunities of economic globalization and pursue independent development paths and achieve remarkable results is, in my opinion, mainly due to the improvement of their development capabilities.
first, african countries attach importance to the integrated development of africa. the au's integrating and coordinating role in regional peace and security, economic and social development is increasingly strengthened. in particular, the au's independent governance capacity has become increasingly prominent in maintaining stability in the african region, which provides an important foundation for africa's overall development.
second, after one or two generations of practice after decolonization, a new generation of african political elites have widely adopted the strategy of "african development pragmatism", making economic development a priority. sustained economic development has brought about significant improvements in national governance capabilities.
third, after decades of development, the quality of africa's labor force has improved significantly, and the level of economic and social development has improved significantly, providing strong support for economic development.
fourth, since the beginning of this century, most african countries have generally "looked east", especially to learn from china's development experience. the forum on china-africa cooperation has helped africa to try leapfrog development. it can be said that africa's embrace of the new development concept has yielded fruitful results.
fifth, in the ever-changing global geopolitical landscape, african countries have insisted on giving priority to national interests, complying with international justice, not taking sides, and cleverly using their geostrategic leverage to cooperate with different types of development partners, including developed and emerging countries, thus ensuring the stability of african countries' own interests and development process.
the reason why african countries have been able to seize opportunities in the wave of economic globalization and achieve the goal of continuously expanding their own development space is not only due to the improvement of their own development capabilities, but also closely related to the spillover effects of china's development.
the trade volume between china and africa has increased from us$10.5 billion in 2000 to us$282.1 billion in 2023, an increase of nearly 26 times. in 2009, china became africa's largest trading partner. the past decade has also been the most active period for china's development cooperation with africa. in addition, african leaders and african society generally value china's development and poverty reduction experience. the exchange of china-africa development experience and governance experience has become the main content of global development learning in the past decade, and is also the due meaning of proposing and implementing global development initiatives.
obviously, africa's efforts to explore leapfrog development over the past decade or so cannot be separated from the reference of china's development experience and the support of china's development resources. railways, roads, ports, industrial parks, development zones, and labor-intensive manufacturing industries, which best reflect africa's development and changes, are all engraved with china's imprint. the fruitful cooperation between china and africa in multiple fields and at multiple levels is also an example of china and africa practicing the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind.
many challenges still need to be addressed to achieve the goal
the african continent has a weak development foundation, a tortuous development process, and a long-term lack of momentum for self-development. for many years, it has been at the bottom of the global development ranking. it is impossible to fundamentally change this situation by following the old rules. a leapfrog development strategy is needed to completely change the backward pattern of the african continent. of course, africa still faces many challenges to truly achieve leapfrog development.
first, we should attach importance to the basic significance of the agricultural sector for growth. in addition to its rich land resources, africa also has abundant labor resources, especially young and middle-aged people. the number of young and middle-aged laborers on the african continent is as high as 650 million, and they are in a state of serious underemployment. labor-intensive manufacturing industries cannot absorb such a huge labor resource for the time being. to break through the bottleneck of agricultural development, it is necessary to invest in agricultural development infrastructure and agricultural technology, develop labor-intensive agricultural industries, promote industrial scale and commercialization, connect the global agricultural supply chain, and accumulate capital for industrialization. industrialization that overtakes on the curve cannot bypass the hurdle of agricultural development. developing agriculture can save capital, use the advantages of land and labor resources to accumulate autonomous development momentum, and provide conditions for leapfrog development.
secondly, it is necessary to improve and strengthen the national governance capacity that can focus on development transformation. leapfrog development requires strong national capacity as a support. african countries generally have a system of democratic consultation and checks and balances in terms of political system. on this basis, how to form a broad political consensus on development issues, break the constraints of interest groups in the process of institutional development, and form a developmental politics suitable for africa is extremely critical to promoting leapfrog development. rwanda's developmental politics, which gradually formed after the civil war, has provided a "model experience" for african development through the practice of the past nearly 20 years. from 2002 to 2012, rwanda's average annual economic growth exceeded 8%; in 2022 and 2023, rwanda's annual economic growth also exceeded 8%. it can be called one of the "miracles" of african economic development.
finally, although infrastructure has been the focus of africa's development over the past decade, the shortcomings of backward infrastructure are still the key constraints for africa to achieve leapfrog development. transportation and energy are the weakest of africa's infrastructure shortcomings. as far as transportation infrastructure is concerned, continuing to strengthen the links within african countries, regional scope and with the global market is the key to the development of africa's transportation infrastructure.
africa's development is at a new crossroads. the global geopolitical landscape is undergoing tremendous changes, and new technological innovations are also comprehensively changing the global economic structure. at the same time, global industries are undergoing new adjustments and layouts, and a new economic globalization is developing. africa's development faces new development opportunities, and in the face of these new opportunities, africa has a unique comparative advantage. therefore, the leapfrog development that african countries are promoting is also adapted to this new global landscape. (the author is a senior professor of liberal arts at china agricultural university and honorary dean of the school of international development and global agriculture)
