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as the philippines' provocations continue to escalate and the united states continues to fan the flames from behind, the situation in the south china sea is now unprecedentedly complicated.

after chinese and philippine ships collided again at xianbin reef, the dpp authorities immediately jumped out to attack the mainland, spared no effort to cooperate with the us's public opinion offensive, made bizarre remarks, and kept talking about "rules-based order", claiming that they "would stand with the philippines" and "jointly uphold international law", openly defending the philippines' provocative behavior in the south china sea.

[chinese coast guard ships dealt with philippine ships at xianbin reef in accordance with the law]

however, this kind of self-indulgent political performance basically cannot cause much trouble.

moreover, on the south china sea issue, the taiwan authorities are not qualified to point fingers at or put labels on the mainland. anyone who understands the historical evolution of the south china sea issue knows that the reason why the current situation in the south china sea is so complicated and various disputes emerge one after another is that the taiwan authorities have a great historical responsibility, and their mess can be said to be everywhere.

from this perspective, the mainland's current construction of a system of actual control over the south china sea and its repeated bargaining with the us-philippines alliance at ren'ai reef and xianbin reef are actually cleaning up the mess and better safeguarding national sovereignty and core interests.

of course, the taiwan authorities are not just hyping up the issue at this time, but are more trying to take the opportunity to increase their presence and link the south china sea situation with the taiwan strait issue. moreover, the democratic progressive party never misses any opportunity to create cross-strait confrontation, especially after lai ching-te came to power.

for a long time, the presence of the taiwan authorities on the south china sea issue has been very weak. the kuomintang knew to go to taiping island to show off in the name of "inspection", but when the democratic progressive party came to power, it behaved more "submissively" on the south china sea issue and looked to the united states for everything.

[ma ying-jeou once "inspected" taiping island]

for example, a few months ago, when the maritime tension between china and the philippines continued, the democratic progressive party began to struggle with whether to "inspect" taiping island at this critical juncture. some people took the americans' words as "instructions", saying that since the united states believes that the south china sea is more prone to conflict than the taiwan strait, and that the mainland and the philippines have frequent frictions on the front line at sea, the taiwan authorities need to avoid making trouble around taiping island so as not to "send the wrong signal."

we can also see that the dpp has been in power on the island for eight years and has almost ignored taiping island. it is clear who it is trying to avoid. in order to "rely on the united states to seek independence", the dpp's views on right and wrong in other areas have long been seriously distorted, and the south china sea issue is just the tip of the iceberg.

let me add here that in 2016, the philippines fabricated the "south china sea arbitration case", in which taiping island was unilaterally identified as a "reef". now, the democratic progressive party is offering so-called "support" to the philippines on the south china sea issue. its intention is clear at a glance.

the dpp simply wants to establish "unofficial ties" with the philippines while connecting with the united states and taiwan. as for what the philippines is planning on with taiping island, that is not within the dpp's consideration.

[marcos went back on his word in the south china sea and also played a trick on the taiwan strait]

the lai ching-te administration has made a good calculation. by putting a label on the mainland at this time, if it can attract the attention of the marcos government, it can use the south china sea issue as a starting point to start the so-called "cooperation" with the philippines.

however, no matter how much the dpp hypes it up, taiwan is not eligible to participate in the negotiations on the south china sea issue. other countries involved in the south china sea issue, except for the philippines, do not want the south china sea to be linked to the taiwan strait.

no matter how high the lai ching-te administration's attack on the mainland is at this time, it is nothing more than trying to use the south china sea issue as a "pledge of allegiance" to strengthen the connection between the united states and taiwan, and to show goodwill to the marcos jr. government at the same time.

in fact, the taiwan authorities are also well aware of the importance of the philippines in the so-called "first island chain" of the united states. after marcos jr. came to power, he gradually played a marginal ball on the taiwan strait issue.

[the lai ching-te administration seems to want to take advantage of the us-philippines alliance]

for example, some time ago, after the taiwan regional leader's election, the philippine diplomatic department claimed to respect the "one china principle", but marcos made inappropriate remarks on the taiwan issue on his social media, which once triggered a diplomatic dispute between china and the philippines. now, the friction between china and the philippines on the front line of the south china sea has not been resolved, and there is a potential hidden danger of the taiwan issue.

overall, the philippines is cautious in its stance on the taiwan strait issue, but caution does not mean that the philippines is willing to take the initiative to abide by the "one china principle". the marcos government can now go back on its word and speculate on the south china sea issue, so sooner or later it will start testing china's red line in the taiwan strait.

marcos jr.'s small moves also led the dpp to mistakenly believe that it could develop a connection with the philippines. moreover, the us and the philippines are military allies. as long as the united states is willing, the taiwan authorities may not be able to get on the line of the us-philippines military alliance.

moreover, from our perspective, given the united states’ voice and dominance in u.s.-philippines relations, if the united states were to show its hand and use the philippines as a springboard to coordinate its expansion in both the taiwan strait and the south china sea, the marcos government would not say a single “no.”

[the taiwan authorities want to use the south china sea issue as an excuse to "connect" with the marcos government]

as u.s.-philippine relations continue to strengthen, the united states has largely shaped the marcos government's domestic and foreign strategies. if the united states wants to work together in the taiwan strait and the south china sea, then whether the philippines is willing or not, it will adjust in this direction.

therefore, the dpp authorities have sufficient motivation to take advantage of the tense situation between the mainland and the philippines on the front line of the south china sea to come out to "support" the philippines and further complicate the situation, hoping to "connect" with the marcos government.

from another perspective, this is a new model of us-taiwan collusion. the extent to which the taiwan authorities cater to the united states and the degree of harm to regional security can be seen from this.