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the "collision" of apple and huawei's press conferences has attracted the attention of the industry. on september 10, people may be able to appreciate the style of huawei's tri-fold and iphone 16 within 24 hours. compared with apple's innovation in ai, the change in huawei's body shape is more eye-catching, and there are already market voices looking forward to a new round of phone replacement.

industry experts believe that the replacement wave may come, but the scale is limited. for apple, its ai function is late and it is one step behind others. for huawei, the three-fold phone seems to be too advanced and the industry behind it is not yet mature. behind this head-on confrontation, both sides have their own strengths and there are many highlights.

meeting on a narrow road

on september 2, huawei terminal’s official weibo account announced that it would hold the “huawei extraordinary brand ceremony and hongmeng intelligent driving new product launch conference” on september 10. huawei’s executive director and chairman of terminal bg yu chengdong reposted the weibo post, saying: “huawei’s most leading, innovative and disruptive products are here.” apple announced that it would hold a special event at 1 a.m. beijing time on september 10, with the theme of “highlight moments”, and is expected to launch the latest iphone, watch and airpods.

both sides have their own killer features, huawei's is in the body shape, while apple's is in ai. from the appearance point of view, the iphone 16 has not changed much. from the information currently leaked, the screen size of the iphone 16 pro and iphone 16 pro max will be increased to 6.3 and 6.9 inches respectively, and the body weight will also increase accordingly. in terms of screen, the pro series will use samsung's new generation m14 oled panel. while the body cancels the physical buttons, it will also introduce a new capture button, which is often called the "photo button", which can realize operations such as light press autofocus, deep press to take pictures, and sliding zoom.

relatively speaking, huawei's tri-fold mobile phone is undoubtedly more attractive. previously, yu chengdong "accidentally" revealed that the tri-fold mobile phone will be released in september. he also mentioned in the live broadcast with dong yuhui that huawei's tri-fold screen, which took five years to develop, will officially meet with everyone in the near future.

on social platforms, some netizens have posted pictures of yu chengdong holding the tri-fold. the screen of this phone is about 10 inches when unfolded, and the unfolded thickness is thinner than that of a conventional folding screen. when folded, the thickness is only about 15-20 mm.

it is worth noting that the name of huawei's press conference also reveals different information. the word "extraordinary" in "huawei meets the extraordinary brand ceremony" attracts attention. huawei has always had the "extraordinary master" series of mobile phones. the products in this line do not focus on cost-effectiveness, but choose the luxury route and highlight artistic design. for example, the latest mate60 rs extraordinary master mobile phone is priced at more than 10,000 yuan.

the market expects that this tri-fold phone will also follow this route, with a small sales volume and a high price, which is huawei's test product. industry observer major general ding told beijing business daily that according to industry rules, mobile phone manufacturers often launch high-end products to test market reactions. if they are popular, they will increase production. in the next few years, as shipments increase, prices of new products will drop and gradually become popular. especially for unprecedented products like tri-fold phones, it is risky to rush into large-scale production.

can it trigger a "mobile phone replacement wave"?

in any case, both apple and huawei have brought a sense of freshness to people, and many market voices have predicted that there will be a wave of phone replacement after the launch of new products.

major general ding believes that there may be a wave of phone replacement, but we should not be too optimistic. from huawei's perspective, its main product is still the huawei mate 70, which has yet to be released. for apple, the wave of phone replacement may appear within the "apple fans", that is, the group that relies on the ios ecosystem and wants to replace a new phone. it is too early to talk about a full-scale phone replacement wave.

unlike huawei's tri-fold which is shrouded in mystery, apple's ai was fully disclosed as early as the 2024 worldwide developers conference. from the application level, apple's ai still focuses on improving work efficiency, such as supporting natural language understanding, automatic polishing of emails, organizing memos, writing summaries, etc. in terms of pictures, it supports text generation, intelligent photo editing and other functions. the above ai capabilities can be used across terminals on iphone, ipad, and mac.

however, these changes are not new, and are already standard on xiaomi, vivo, and oppo flagship phones. what is more noteworthy is the increase in siri's intelligence. siri with ai capabilities can match multiple rounds of conversations, summarize information, and enhance screen perception, human-computer interaction and other capabilities.

experts believe that if the iphone 16 triggers a wave of phone replacement, it is more because the backlog of demand will explode this year. in recent years, the "toothpaste squeezing" style innovation of the iphone has made many potential users hold their money and wait and see. now the implementation of ai has given this group a reason to consume.

it is not realistic to expect the three-fold folding screen to trigger a wave of phone replacement, after all, folding screens are still gaining popularity. according to cinno research data, the cumulative sales of folding screen phones in china in the first half of the year reached 4.98 million units, but the penetration rate was only 3.6%.

liang zhenpeng, a senior industrial economist observer, analyzed to the beijing business daily reporter that even if the three-fold mobile phone overcomes all hardware difficulties, it will take time to establish a software ecosystem. specifically, the screen size of the three-fold mobile phone is very different from that of traditional products, and software developers need to carry out targeted optimization and adaptation. on the one hand, basic elements such as interface layout and font size need to be adjusted; on the other hand, with an additional screen, how to reflect the advantages of multiple screens and how to achieve multi-threaded office work also need to be explored in practice.

the "confrontation" that did not work

at present, people are talking about the "head-on confrontation" between huawei and apple, but from the perspective of the industry, the gimmick is greater than the actual significance. after all, major manufacturers like to release new products in september. in addition to huawei and apple, this fall people may also welcome xiaomi 15, vivo x200, oppo find x8 and iqoo 13 series.

major general ding pointed out that this release rhythm is a common practice in the consumer electronics industry. releasing new products at the beginning of the third quarter just in time for shopping festivals such as "double 11" and "double 12". overseas markets also have nodes such as black friday and christmas. releasing too early will easily fade the enthusiasm, and releasing too late will not give the topic enough time to ferment. the early third quarter is most suitable. after the consumption peak in the fourth quarter is over, major brands will actively stock up in the first and second quarters of the following year to prepare for the next third quarter.

in addition, from the perspective of market share, it is difficult for huawei and apple to compete. after all, apple has slipped out of the top five in the domestic market. according to idc statistics, in the second quarter of the domestic mobile phone market, the shares of vivo, huawei, oppo, honor and xiaomi were 18.5%, 18.1%, 15.7%, 14.5% and 14% respectively. based on the data in the first half of the year, huawei ranked first in domestic shipments with a market share of 17.5%.

whether huawei's leading position can stimulate its peers remains to be seen. other brands seem to be more cautious about the three-fold display. honor ceo zhao ming once said: "the technical level of honor's three-fold screen has been completed. the time node for commercialization will be determined based on consumer demand. for us, the three-fold display is not a technical issue, but a business choice."

xiaomi ceo lei jun went the other way and started the foldable phone. in his 2024 personal speech, lei jun said that the foldable phone technology was not mature before, and many people said that the foldable phone was a "beautiful little waste" and the user experience was average, but xiaomi's technology can already meet the demand, and he hopes that everyone will call it a "beautiful little cutie" after using it.

major general ding believes that different brands have different promotional strategies. huawei chose to take the lead to a certain extent because its mobile phone products had encountered setbacks and lagged behind its peers for a time. the preemptive release of the tri-fold phone can help "huawei pollen" regain their confidence and allow more consumers to update their impression of huawei phones. for long-term positive brands such as xiaomi and honor, how to balance innovation and stability is the core of their operations.

beijing business daily reporter tao feng and wang zhuli