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on august 30, the stock indices of the two cities rose across the board during intraday trading, and the trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, with a total trading volume of 876.6 billion yuan, and nearly 4,700 stocks in the market were in the green.

technology and consumer-related sectors led the gains, with real estate, automobiles, consumer electronics, liquor, communications, and games rising sharply. in contrast, previously strong sectors such as banks and dividends showed a pullback, and the market's style switching trend was obvious.

regarding the market surge on august 30, china securities journal reporters interviewed seven fund companies including china europe fund, caitong fund, and golden eagle fund. most of the fund companies believe that in addition to the overall market performance, the difference from the past lies in the industry and style level. the growth of high-dividend banks, energy and other sectors is relatively lagging, while many industries such as small and medium-sized stocks, growth stocks, tmt, and consumption, which were under pressure in the early stage, have shown a relatively positive style. the risk appetite of market participants is constantly improving. if this increase in risk appetite can be sustained, it may also indicate a signal of a phased bottoming out and rebound in the market.

the bottom trend is confirmed and the market is recovering in stages

on august 30, the shanghai composite index closed up 0.68% at 2842.21 points, the shenzhen component index rose 2.38% to 8348.48 points, and the chinext index rose 2.53% to 1580.46 points. market trading sentiment was high, with a total turnover of 876.6 billion yuan in the two markets, and nearly 4,700 stocks in the market were in the green.

from the perspective of sectors, benefiting from the upward adjustment of apple's shipment expectations and the positive expectations for ai's c-end applications, tmt industries such as electronics, computers, and media have risen significantly; in addition, some related sectors with better-than-expected performance in the semi-annual report have also seen positive stock price reactions, and the related sub-sectors of technology and consumption that were weak in the early stage have shown a relatively strong rebound. what positive factors have contributed to the market's big rebound? what signals has the market surge released?

caitong fund said in an interview with reporters that the market surge reflects the correction of investors' overly pessimistic risk appetite. the semi-annual report has been released, the market expects the policy to be strengthened, and the expectation of overseas liquidity easing has increased. other positive factors have also begun to attract investors' attention. golden eagle fund believes that the rise mainly comes from changes in domestic policy expectations and positive changes in the peripheral industry. the bottom-up volume of important indexes boosted market sentiment, but we should also be wary of a recurrence of the market situation at the end of july, that is, after a short-term boost, the market will return to weakness again due to the lack of positive changes in fundamentals and policies.

china europe fund said that the rmb exchange rate has continued to appreciate recently, and the sentiment of chinese assets has improved during the same period. first, the seasonal settlement of foreign exchange from august to october has a certain pull on the exchange rate; second, the phased easing of sino-us relations; third, the federal reserve is about to cut interest rates, and non-us currencies and emerging markets are generally strong. the rise on august 30 reflects that the market is more concerned about the potential further efforts of pro-cyclical policies, such as monetary, fiscal, and industrial aspects. at the same time, the improvement of overseas liquidity continues to have a continuous effect on the risk preference of major domestic asset classes.

caitong fund believes that in the short term, the central bank's reduction of omo/lpr/mlf interest rates and the increase in special government bonds will help stabilize economic confidence and market risk appetite. in the medium term, with the ppi repair and the steady growth policy, a-share earnings are expected to enter a recovery cycle, providing positive support for the market. the global pmi has bottomed out and rebounded, the us replacement cycle, consumption recovery, real estate recovery and durable goods replenishment have gradually started, and technology and external demand are still structural prosperity clues.

"overseas liquidity expectations are gradually becoming clearer, and the market expects that the federal reserve is more likely to cut interest rates in september. the start of an overseas interest rate cut cycle may provide positive support for the a-share market on the denominator side, increasing the certainty of a market bottom rebound. however, the recovery of confidence requires time to verify. we believe that there is a high probability that the market will have a phased and repeated repair process in the future." caitong fund said.

golden eagle fund also believes that there is a possibility of a bottom rebound in the future, and potential positive changes have yet to be gradually confirmed. on the one hand, the federal reserve may implement its first interest rate cut in september, and the constraints of external pressure on my country's exchange rate and monetary policy space are expected to be reduced. with the improvement of overseas liquidity, domestic policy space will also open up.

on the other hand, with the domestic economic momentum weakening, especially with the demand to achieve the economic goals this year, there is a possibility of domestic policy tightening in the september window, especially around the economic work deployed by the political bureau meeting in july, such as real estate storage and residents' income improvement. positive policy changes may be observed in these areas, but the actual effect needs to be further evaluated after the policy is introduced, which will determine the space for the market to rebound. however, after entering september, as the us election will gradually enter the stage of presidential candidate debates, uncertainties such as trade tariffs may also have an adverse impact on the market, which also needs to be observed and evaluated.

"a rebound may occur at any time. looking back, the stock market itself has undergone a long period of adjustment, but many stocks are still growing, so what has actually fallen is the valuation, that is, a-shares are currently in a state of high cost-effectiveness, and the market will need to revalue undervalued assets, but the timing is still uncertain. but what we can do is try our best to identify better assets and hold them firmly and patiently. overall, we are still full of confidence in the future of china's economy and a-share market." said xie yi, fund manager of nord fund.

dividend strategies continue to diverge, and core assets may rebound from oversold levels

the market has been sluggish recently, and the dividend sector has shown a unilateral upward trend. after the market has experienced a weak adjustment for more than a month, most industries have seen a significant correction.

in contrast to the collective surge in many sectors, the banking sector continued to plummet by more than 2% on august 30. the five major state-owned banks, namely industrial and commercial bank of china, agricultural bank of china, china construction bank, bank of communications and postal savings bank of china, all fell by more than 3%. the high dividend and bonus sectors represented by banks showed a trend of differentiation. which sectors are currently clearly at the bottom of the market and worthy of investors' allocation?

xie yi, fund manager of nord fund, believes that, in fact, except for several high-dividend sectors that have seen large gains in the previous period and even set new highs, including banking, coal, oil and other industries, most other industries and sectors are at a relatively bottom position at a certain stage. from a valuation perspective, the bottom is likely to be 5-10 years, which is a state with high cost performance. for example, the liquor, food and beverage sectors in the consumer field, pharmaceuticals and equipment in the medical field, consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors in the electronics field, etc. among them, the consumer electronics sector has risen a lot today, which may be related to the upcoming launch of apple's new generation of mobile phones. in addition to the above opportunities at the industry level, small and medium-sized stocks were generally under pressure in the early stage at the style level. there are many stocks with good fundamentals, and stocks of this style are also worthy of our focus.

"considering that relatively positive changes in the market in the future are expected to come from domestic policies and improved liquidity after overseas interest rate cuts, we believe that among the current oversold stocks, we can focus in the short term on related sectors that benefit from domestic policies or a soft landing of the overseas economy, including military industry, machinery, new energy and other industries," said golden eagle fund.

guotai fund believes that in the short term, with the steady growth policy in force and the approaching window for overseas interest rate cuts, core assets will have the opportunity to rebound from oversold from time to time, especially in the electric power, pharmaceutical and financial sectors. however, in the long run, the macro environment will be more complicated in the second half of the year, and technology and security will still be the two main lines of policy. we still recommend that the main positions be biased towards the value of the market, and the technology theme is a tactical opportunity. in the long term, the industry focuses on three directions: 1. value-stable assets, including electricity, precious metals, ship rail transit, etc.; 2. in terms of technology, we continue to be optimistic about the core stocks in the ai ​​chain; 3. advantageous companies that continue to strengthen their ability to go overseas to asian, african and latin american countries can focus on industries such as batteries, machinery, tires, and home appliances.

in terms of allocation, nuoan fund currently still recommends focusing on the two main lines of dividends and going overseas. in terms of specific products, it is expected that the dividend strategy may continue to diverge. dividend low-volatility assets will continue to focus on banks with considerable dividend yield expectations and improved asset quality expectations, hydropower and nuclear power with stable free cash return rates, and property insurance with stable premium growth. in addition, domestic exports may be expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future. in the future, it is recommended to pay attention to excellent companies in the overseas sector that have fully reflected the us recession trade. after the market signals are clear, the focus will be shifted to high-performance growth and domestic demand. it is recommended to focus on manufacturing leaders such as electronics (intelligent driving and semiconductor autonomous control), machinery (equipment renewal and transformation and overseas competition), pharmaceuticals after the anti-corruption impact is fully priced (industrial integration, overseas breakthroughs), and hong kong-listed internet and consumer leading companies.

china europe fund believes that when the market is in the buying range, the clues of structural switching in the short-term rebound of the market are firstly the oversold and undervalued sectors, especially the core industries of stable growth such as real estate that may benefit from the subsequent policy stimulus; secondly, the rebound opportunities after the oversold domestic demand sector; and finally, the main growth lines such as technological independence and the fruit chain. in the medium and long term, with the disclosure of the semi-annual report, the main line of new quality productivity that conforms to the new "national nine articles" guiding ideology, high roe enterprises and industries with room for roe improvement are expected to receive further attention from the market.

"in the future, it is recommended to pay attention to the semi-annual reports of listed companies, which may provide new ideas for the current market that lacks a clear main line. looking forward, the market style may spread from high dividends to high prosperity and high roe." galaxy fund said.