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the "curse" of price increase has sealed september for nearly a hundred years!

wind data shows that since 1928since 2011, the s&p 500 has fallen an average of 1.2% in september.. although the federal reserve’s september rate cut is almost certain, wall street is still worried about whether the “soft landing” narrative that has driven u.s. stocks higher in 2024 can continue.

// wall street is worried about the "september curse" of us stocks //

u.s. stocks closed higher on friday, with the dow hitting a record high and the s&p recording its fourth consecutive month of gains. u.s. stock investors are preparing for a potentially volatile september, historically the weakest month for u.s. stocks.

wind data shows thatsince 1928, the s&p 500 has fallen an average of 1.2% in september. except for february and september, the s&p 500 has achieved positive returns in the remaining 10 months.

adam turnquist, chief technical strategist at lpl financial, said:since 1950, the s&p 500 has risen in september just 43% of the time, making it the worst month for stocks.。

citigroup's analysis of data going back to 1928 shows thataverage realized volatility for the s&p 500 in september has historically been 1.5 points higher than in august, and 2.5 points higher in october.。

higher stock valuations could also make investors less willing to hold onto shares if bad news hits. according to lseg datastream,the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the s&p 500 is 21, up from 19.6 in early august and compared with the long-term average of 15.7.。

mark mobius, a legendary american investor known as the "godfather of emerging markets", said:despite the recent sharp rebound in u.s. stocks, investors should not rush to buy。

in a recent interview, he said he recommends that investors hold at least 20% of their portfolios in cash while waiting for buying opportunities.mobius warns investors to remain vigilant as troubling signs emerge in the economy。

jon wolfenbarger, a former investment banker at merrill lynch and jpmorgan chase, warned:if a painful recession hits when valuations are high, u.s. stocks could plunge 70%。

// the market is watching key data //

the market is currently waiting for the release of some key data, which will affect the fed's decision-making stance and influence market sentiment.

quincy krosby, chief global strategist at lpl financial, said:a key factor influencing stock market movements is whether the rate cut is due to slowing inflation or a weak labor market.he said the market wants to enter a rate-cutting cycle because inflation is falling. the question remains whether we will see further deterioration in the labor market.

data released by the u.s. department of commerce on friday showed that the core personal consumption expenditures price index (pce), an inflation indicator that the federal reserve pays attention to, rose modestly in july, providing further data support for the federal reserve's first interest rate cut in more than four years, and expectations for a small interest rate cut in september have increased. as for the extent of the interest rate cut, the market is increasingly inclined to a small interest rate cut of 25 basis points.

the latest data from the chicago mercantile exchange's fedwatch tool shows thatinvestors expect the fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in september with a 69.5% chance and a 50 basis point chance.; the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year is expected to be 70.3%.

as the downward trend of inflation gradually becomes established, the federal reserve's focus is shifting from fighting inflation to supporting employment. powell made it clear at the annual meeting of global central banks that the downside risks to employment have increased.the august non-farm payrolls report to be released next week will be the last employment report before the september interest rate decision and is expected to be the final word on the september rate cut.。