news

global highlights next week: focusing on the us august non-farm report, can technology stocks regain market favor?

2024-09-01

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

the three major u.s. stock indexes all recorded gains this week, with the dow jones industrial average setting a new high for the second time and the s&p 500 also approaching its historical high.

earlier in august, the market fell sharply as a number of poor u.s. economic data, especially the unusually weak labor market, intensified investors' concerns about the u.s. economy falling into recession.

however, as more positive data were released, investor confidence gradually recovered, and coupled with the federal reserve's signal of a rate cut, the three major u.s. stock indexes all ultimately rose in august.

the most important economic data for overseas markets next week is the u.s. august non-farm report scheduled to be released on friday. against the backdrop of a significant easing of inflationary pressures, policymakers are now more concerned about the health of the job market, which will affect future monetary policy actions.

david lefkowitz, head of u.s. equities at ubs global wealth management, said that if the august nonfarm report shows that the job market is cooling steadily, but not at a worrying pace, it could help support the broader market's gains.

the federal reserve will release the latest beige book on economic conditions next thursday. this report is an important reference for the federal reserve's regular monetary policy meeting. the federal reserve will hold an interest rate meeting on september 17-18

unless there is a major surprise, there is no doubt that the fed will start a rate cut cycle in september. the question is the extent of the cut. money market pricing shows that investors currently believe that the probability of the fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is about 70%.

this week, nvidia's q3 revenue guidance fell short of the most optimistic market expectations, which may be another proof that investors are shifting their attention away from technology stocks.

analysis shows that since the release of the lower-than-expected inflation report in the united states on july 11, the share prices of the seven largest u.s. stocks have lagged behind the other 493 stocks in the s&p 500 index by 14 percentage points.

in terms of performance in august, the 0.65% increase of the tech-heavy nasdaq was significantly lower than the 2.28% increase of the s&p 500 and the 1.76% increase of the dow jones industrial average.

jason alonzo, portfolio manager at harbor capital, said investors are unlikely to abandon tech stocks, especially if market volatility provides them with opportunities to buy on dips.

in terms of financial reports, with the release of nvidia's financial report, the climax of the q2 financial reporting season of the us stock market has also come to an end. the financial reports worth paying attention to next week include chip giant broadcom and nio, one of the three new forces in china's car manufacturing.

(next week’s earnings report highlights)

it is worth noting that investors will be closed for one day on monday next week due to the labor day holiday.

overview of important overseas economic events next week (beijing time):

monday (september 2):u.s. stocks closed for one day, final august manufacturing pmi of france/germany/eurozone, and august manufacturing pmi of the uk

tuesday (september 3):us august ism manufacturing pmi, us july construction spending monthly rate, swiss second quarter gdp

wednesday (september 4):australia's second quarter gdp, france/germany/eurozone august service industry/composite pmi final value, eurozone july ppi, us july trade account, us july jolts job vacancies, bank of canada announces interest rate decision

thursday (september 5):eurozone july retail sales data, us august adp employment, us august s&p global services pmi final value, us august ism non-manufacturing pmi, federal reserve beige book on economic conditions

friday (september 6):u.s. august seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, u.s. august unemployment rate, final annual gdp rate of the eurozone in the second quarter, german/french july seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate