Located at the "crossroads" of Eurasia, how important is the South Caucasus?
2024-08-27
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Our special correspondent in Russia Kang Yu Our reporter Chen Zishuai Our special correspondent IvanEditor's note: On August 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Baku for a two-day state visit to Azerbaijan. The Russian president's visit attracted widespread attention, one of the reasons being that his visit was timed at a special moment when Ukrainian troops invaded Russian territory. Putin's choice of this time to visit Azerbaijan further highlights the strategic significance of the South Caucasus in the current geopolitical landscape. This region, located at the "crossroads" of the Eurasian continent, is both a "junction" of different civilizations and a frequent site of conflict; it is both an important channel for Eurasian oil transportation and a key link in the North-South international transportation corridor; it is both a strategic buffer zone between Russia and Europe and a "battlefield" for many countries to compete for influence. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has further increased the importance of the South Caucasus in the geopolitical game, and under the new political reality, new trends have also emerged in the region's diplomacy.Civilization "Border" + Strategic Buffer ZoneThe Caucasus is a region located at the junction of West Asia and Eastern Europe, between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, in the Caucasus Mountains. The region is divided into the South Caucasus and the North Caucasus. The former includes Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, while the latter belongs to the Russian Federation, and autonomous republics such as Dagestan and Chechnya are located here.From the map, the South Caucasus region is located at the "crossroads" of the Eurasian continent, facing Europe across the Black Sea, and connecting to China across the Caspian Sea through Central Asia. The three countries in the region are all adjacent to regional or world powers. Among them, Azerbaijan borders the Caspian Sea to the east, Iran and Turkey to the south, and Russia to the north. Armenia borders Turkey to the west and Iran to the south. Georgia borders Russia to the north, Turkey to the southwest, and the Black Sea to the west."There are all kinds of climates and landscapes here - from deserts to subtropical fertile areas along the Black Sea coast to temperate wine country." De Waal, a senior fellow for Eastern Europe and the Caucasus at the European Institute of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, once said in an interview that the South Caucasus is defined by two huge mountain ranges: the Greater Caucasus and the Lesser Caucasus. The region is incredibly diverse in ethnicity and language, a product of history and geography; culturally, the South Caucasus is at the "junction" of Islam and Christianity.An anonymous scholar interviewed by the Global Times' special correspondent in Russia said that there are dozens of ethnic groups living in the South Caucasus, and the region itself is a complex region with many ethnic and religious conflicts in history. In addition, public data shows that Georgians mainly believe in Orthodox Christianity, Armenians mainly believe in Christianity, and Azerbaijanis mostly believe in Islam and are Shia Muslims, but do not emphasize differences between sects. De Waal said that historically, the South Caucasus has always been considered a conflict-prone area. Armenia and Azerbaijan have had multiple conflicts over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and Russia and Georgia have also fought wars over Abkhazia and South Ossetia.The South Caucasus region occupies an important position in the Eurasian oil transportation channel. According to previous reports by the BBC and the US magazine Foreign Policy, the Caspian Sea region, located in the heart of the Eurasian continent, is densely covered with major oil and gas pipelines connected to the European and international energy markets, and is very close to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. There are three land routes for energy and cargo transportation between Europe and Asia, passing through Iran, Russia or Azerbaijan (involving the Nagorno-Karabakh region). Due to the deterioration of relations between the West and Russia and Iran, there is only one viable land route left for Eurasian trade: through Azerbaijan. During the Afghan war, one-third of the fuel and logistical supplies of the US and NATO forces once chose to take the Georgia and Azerbaijan routes.Wang Jinguo, a professor at the School of Politics and International Relations of Lanzhou University, said in an interview with the Global Times that the South Caucasus region is of great strategic significance not only because of its unique geographical location, but also because of its rich energy resources. Wang Jinguo explained that the Caspian Sea region where the South Caucasus is located is known as the "second Persian Gulf" and is very rich in oil and natural gas resources. It is estimated that the geological reserves of oil in the Caspian Sea region account for about 18% of the world's total reserves. The Black Sea near the South Caucasus region is an important channel for oil and natural gas to flow from the Middle East and Central Asia to Europe and from Russia to the Mediterranean through the Turkish Straits. Control of the Black Sea is related to the safety of oil transportation pipelines, so the region's energy channel status is extremely important.Some people believe that the South Caucasus is a strategic buffer zone between the East and the West, NATO and Russia. This oil-rich region is also a space for some extremists to operate."Geopolitics and historical hatreds make the conflict more complicated." According to the BBC and other media reports, NATO member Turkey and oil-rich Azerbaijan are both Islamic countries with the same cultural origins and close relations. Turkey and Armenia have long had bad relations. Russia has a military base in Armenia and also has good relations with Azerbaijan.“Many countries have interests here”The British Tony Blair Global Change Institute previously published an article stating that the strategic importance of the Caucasus region can be traced back to the Tsarist Russia period, when the Tsarist Russia needed to expand its territory as a bastion against the Ottoman Empire. During the Tsarist Russia period, the capital was moved from the major port city of St. Petersburg to the inland city of Moscow. Then in the early 19th century, the Tsarist Russia entered the North Caucasus region, and then directly southward to establish a huge buffer zone between Moscow and the Ottoman Empire.It is precisely because of its importance that many countries attach great importance to the South Caucasus region. In February this year, Georgian scholar Avdalyani published an article on the website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States, saying that Turkey is an important ally of Azerbaijan and has close relations with Georgia. It has been promoting the development of east-west connectivity. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, a regional railway connecting Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, is an example of Ankara's promotion of regional transportation development. In October 2023, Iran and Azerbaijan signed an agreement on a transit corridor that connects Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan through Iranian territory. Iran has also promoted work on the North-South International Transport Corridor, which runs from southern Iran through Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea to Russia. Other initiatives proposed by Tehran include developing a road through Armenia, which could establish a solid connection between Iran and the Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi in Georgia.Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European and American countries paid little attention to the South Caucasus region, but now they are also strengthening their military ties with countries in the region. According to AFP and other media reports, from July 16 to 24, Armenia conducted joint military exercises with US troops stationed in Europe and Africa and the Kansas National Guard of the United States. In the same month, the European Council issued a statement saying that the EU decided to provide 10 million euros in aid to the Armenian army. This is the first time that the EU has decided to support Armenia through the "European Peace Financing Facility". French Defense Minister Le Cornu recently stated that Armenia has signed a contract with France to purchase the "Caesar" self-propelled artillery system that France is providing to Ukraine.Why do so many forces pay so much attention to the South Caucasus? In response to this question, the anonymous scholar said that in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the South Caucasus has attracted much attention as a potential hotspot. Babayev, director of the Institute of Chinese and Modern Asian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the Global Times' special correspondent in Russia that the region has always been a meeting point for global trade and cultural exchanges. Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey, Iran and many other countries have interests here.According to Wang Jinguo's analysis, for Russia, the South Caucasus is located in the heart of the Eurasian continent and borders Russia. Russia regards the region as a buffer zone for its strategic security. For the United States, the South Caucasus is a "frontline" to further squeeze Russia. By strengthening its influence in the region, the United States can check and balance Russia's dominance in the region. For the European Union, the EU increasingly values Azerbaijan's energy resources and hopes to ensure the diversification and security of energy supply by strengthening ties with the South Caucasus. Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations between Russia and the West, the EU hopes to use the South Caucasus as a corridor between Central Europe to replace Russia in order to reduce its dependence on Russian energy and transportation channels.Some actions of Europe and the United States in the South Caucasus have caused dissatisfaction in Russia. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, O'Brien, the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, recently stated that a large part of the Armenian population "wants to keep a distance from Russia" and the United States is creating conditions for this. In response to this statement, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said on August 8 that the United States is trying to take over the national governance system, control the resource base, and use transit potential in the South Caucasus. She also criticized that the West is promoting a destructive agenda in the South Caucasus, which aims to divide the region and undermine the region's historical ties with Russia. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin reminded that the Western agenda in the South Caucasus is not always in the interests of the countries in the region.“We are experiencing a geopolitical transformation”"The South Caucasus is undergoing a geopolitical transformation," Avdalyan said in his article. The continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan mean that the region is entering a new era. During this period, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have gradually become more confident on the world stage, and they are all implementing diversified foreign policies. Georgia has strengthened its interaction with the European Union, while Azerbaijan has sought to establish closer relations with Turkey and some Central Asian and European countries. Armenia has promoted more contacts with the European Union, reconciled with Turkey, and even planned to establish military ties with India and some European countries.Avdalani believes that the South Caucasus region is establishing more links with the Middle East, including energy links and security cooperation. Azerbaijan has become one of Turkey's main natural gas suppliers, providing Turkey with about 16% of its natural gas supply in 2022, while Iran and Armenia have agreed to extend the natural gas trade agreement until 2030. Saudi Arabia established diplomatic relations with Armenia in November 2023, and the latter has also expanded its relations with other Gulf countries. Similar trends have also emerged in Georgia's relations with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan and other countries.Wang Jinguo told the Global Times that, in general, the foreign policies of countries in the South Caucasus region are showing a trend of diversification. Countries no longer rely solely on a major power or regional organization, but seek to establish cooperative relations with multiple countries and international organizations to balance regional forces and safeguard their own interests. At the same time, significant changes in the diplomatic relations of countries in the South Caucasus region are also reflected in the relations between Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan.Wang Jinguo told reporters that, specifically, Armenia was once a close ally of Russia, and the two countries have deep cooperation in many fields. However, in recent years, there have been certain cracks in the relationship between Armenia and Russia; Azerbaijan's main supporter was Turkey before, but in recent years, the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan has gradually become closer. The reason is that Armenia's defeat in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Russia's position and actions in conflict mediation have made Armenia dissatisfied.Babayev told the Global Times' special correspondent in Russia that the situation in the South Caucasus has changed. Armenia has changed its policy direction and sought support from the West, while Georgia and Azerbaijan are looking for opportunities to pursue independent policies. The stability of the region will depend on whether the three countries in the South Caucasus can maintain a balance between the interests of the United States, Russia, Europe and Turkey. But it is clear that Russia, Turkey and Iran, as neighboring countries, will still be the main players in the region.Regarding Putin's recent state visit to Azerbaijan, the Eurasian Special News Network, headquartered in Rome, Italy, published an article stating that the strengthening of the partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan has a significant impact on regional stability and international relations. The deepening cooperation between the two countries may exacerbate existing tensions with Armenia or prompt Armenia to rebalance its foreign policy. In the presence of Russian representatives, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister expressed his willingness to sign a peace agreement with the Armenian Foreign Minister in Moscow. Moscow once again demonstrated its decisive role in the political ecology of the South Caucasus region, indicating that Armenia may need to rely more on its historical allies rather than the West. ▲
