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On the eve of the US high-level visit to China, mainland think tanks issued a unified article, sending a strong signal

2024-08-27

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The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently announced that at the invitation of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, US President's Assistant for National Security Affairs Sullivan will visit China from August 27 to 29. At that time, China will express serious concerns, clarify solemn positions, and make serious demands on "the Taiwan issue, development rights, and China's strategic security" to the United States. Among the three major topics, the Taiwan issue ranks first, which shows that the Taiwan issue will be the main content of this Sino-US strategic communication. In fact, the US Oceania Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clearly stated in its external briefing that "the US must abide by the 'one China' principle" and "implement the commitment not to support 'Taiwan independence'", which set the tone for the Sino-US meeting.

Just before Sullivan's visit to China, according to a report by Taiwan media on August 25, several articles on "post-reunification governance issues" appeared on mainland think tank websites. Although they were removed shortly after being published, they still attracted great attention from the outside world. For example, a research institute of Xiamen University stated in an article that with the changes in the US election situation, the possibility of Trump's "second term" has greatly increased, and "the timetable for reunification of Taiwan may be advanced at any time." The article believes that the "one country, two systems" model applicable to Hong Kong is not suitable for Taiwan, and preparations should be made to "fully take over" Taiwan after reunification.

Regardless of whether the content of these think tank articles is ahead of the times and whether the suggestions and advice are in line with the situation, one thing is certain: on the eve of Sullivan's visit to China, the mainland appeared with articles discussing "reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait" and even "governance after reunification", which in itself conveyed an unusual message. On the one hand, this echoed the briefing of the Department of American Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which the Chinese official demanded that the United States "adhere to the 'one China' principle" and "implement the commitment not to support 'Taiwan independence'"; and then there were unofficial and semi-official reminders to the United States that China is well prepared for "military reunification" and that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are "bound to be unified".

On the other hand, it is also a "showdown" with the United States: Sino-US relations have reached a very dangerous turning point. Whether it is war or peace, the key lies in how the United States handles the Taiwan issue. The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests. If the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, Sino-US relations will be shaken. To put it bluntly, it is war. The United States is clinging to the strategy of "using Taiwan to contain China" and wants to replicate the "Ukrainian model" in the Taiwan Strait, attempting to use this to pressure China to give up national rejuvenation. Otherwise, it will trigger a crisis in the Taiwan Strait and interrupt China's rise by force. Then China and the United States will have to meet on the battlefield.

From this perspective, "reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait" and "post-war governance" also mean "China-US war", because the United States will not allow the reunification of the two sides. Members of the US Senate Armed Services Committee once clamored, "If the Chinese mainland launches a war of reunification in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will be authorized to take devastating strikes against China"; US National Security Advisor Sullivan, who is about to visit China, also threatened that in order to prevent the mainland from "reunification by force", the United States will take "all possible means"; former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley also said, "If the mainland reunifies Taiwan, China will be unstoppable."

Therefore, "cross-strait reunification" is almost equivalent to "Sino-US war", but China published an article on "Governance Issues after Cross-Strait Reunification" through its think tank just before Sullivan's anti-China remarks. This is a kind of "showdown" - whether the United States is willing or not, China will surely reunify, and the United States must make a choice whether to fight or make peace.