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Recently, the Philippines has been running around in the South China Sea like a headless fly, intensifying its provocations against China's sovereignty, seemingly aiming to force China to make a more intense response.

According to Philippine media reports,On August 22, when a patrol plane of the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) of the Philippines, in collaboration with the Philippine Coast Guard, harassed Subi Reef, it was warned and driven away by at least three flares fired from the reef.This is the second time that Philippine military aircraft were driven away by China when they approached and monitored Chinese territory following the air conflict between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal.

It is obvious to all that since August, the Philippines has hardly stopped and has intensified the South China Sea issue.The Philippines has repeatedly sent patrol aircraft to conduct reconnaissance activities on Chinese islands and reefs such as Subi Reef, Tiexian Reef and Xianbin Reef, especially to fly around Subi Reef, which is highly modernized and has a large number of military supplies deployed, to take aerial photos.It also once accused China of "building large-scale projects on Philippine territory." This time Manila repeated its old tricks and was severely warned by China.

The current situation is clear at a glance——After the situation in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines eased briefly due to the temporary supply arrangement at Ren'ai Reef, the Philippines' unreasonable provocations became more frequent, throwing China's goodwill behind its back, commonly known as "shameless". Of course, in the struggle with China, Manila cannot gain any advantage, and the intensity of the Chinese Coast Guard's counterattacks has also escalated accordingly. The Philippines will always be the one that gets hurt or flees.

It cannot be ignored thatUnder the instigation of the United States, the Marcos government seems determined to go down the same path and compete with China in the South China Sea.In April this year, the Philippine Coast Guard's MRRV-9701 patrol ship illegally stayed in the waters of Xianbin Reef, just like the country deliberately stranded a retired warship on Ren'ai Reef in 1999 and used it as an "outpost", attempting to occupy Chinese territory.The Marcos government is planning to send a second ship to the area for illegal anchoring, and it is not ruled out that it will use this method on other disputed islands between China and the Philippines.

In addition, with tensions in Ukraine and the US election in full swing, Washington is reluctant to show any signs of weakness towards China.The US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense visited Manila at the same time, bringing a $500 million aid package.Going back in time, the United States used military exercises as an excuse in April this year.Will be able to launchStandard-6The Manila authorities also allowed the United States to deploy military supplies at nine military bases.It is conceivable that in the second half of this year, the military activities of the United States and the Philippines at China's "doorstep" may increase rather than decrease.

Currently, the Philippines is still expanding its military infrastructure on China's Zhongye Island, which it has forcibly occupied. Combined with the country's situation of "seeking reinforcements and help" everywhere,In the future, the island will most likely "open its doors" to warships and fighter jets from non-regional countries such as the United States and Japan.It is not difficult to imagine that this series of actions not only violated China's territorial sovereignty, but also posed a threat to regional peace and led to political, economic and social instability in the entire ASEAN.The Philippines was therefore called "the outlier in ASEAN" by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In fact, for now, China’s attitude towards the Philippines has always been “listen to what it says and watch what it does”, taking targeted countermeasures, always exercising restraint, and advising it to honor its commitments.If unrest ensues in the South China Sea as war rages in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world will be engulfed by intertwined conflicts in key regions of Eurasia, which could turn into a global war unprecedented since World War II.

So,Given China's absolute superiority in the South China Sea and its abundant means to deal with external provocations, we have no intention of proactively provoking a war.However, the Marcos administration needs to remember thatChina has indisputable sovereignty over Ren'ai Reef, Xianbin Reef and other islands and reefs and their surrounding waters, and has the right to take decisive action. China is not afraid to fire the first shot. If the Manila authorities do not repent, is the United States ready to fight on two fronts?Are Filipino soldiers ready to pay the price of their lives for American interests?