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Hello, friends.

Today I will analyze two important things with you.

First, regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait, although it appears calm on the surface recently, there are actually undercurrents.

Second, regarding the situation in the Middle East, according to previous statements by the United States, the situation is relatively optimistic. If nothing unexpected happens, several countries will reach an agreement at the intelligence chiefs' meeting to be held in Cairo this weekend.

But now I have to tell you that there is going to be a major setback, so starting tonight (August 23), we will be closely following the meeting in Cairo.

It is also worth noting that Iran may also join the game.

01

Long story short, let’s get straight to the first topic.

The current situation in the Taiwan Strait appears calm on the surface, but in fact there are undercurrents.

According to Western media, in recent days, two senior officials from Taiwan’s security system are visiting Washington. One is the head of the foreign affairs department, and the other is the so-called "national security adviser." Both of them are members of the Democratic Progressive Party and are "Taiwan independence" elements.

There are no formal political relations between the United States and Taiwan, so generally Taiwanese officials are not allowed to approach Washington, but it is said that this time they attended some think tank meetings in Washington and secretly communicated with the United States. Therefore, we should pay close attention to this matter, and perhaps more information will be revealed in the next few days.

In fact, this matter is not groundless.

First, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, the female politician who previously competed with Trump for the presidency but later withdrew, has also been visiting Taiwan in recent days and met with Lai Ching-te.

Haley conveyed to Lai Ching-te the so-called unwavering support of the United States, especially the Republican Party, for the Taiwan region, for which Lai Ching-te expressed his gratitude.

At the same time, a US missile destroyer crossed the Taiwan Strait again yesterday (August 22).

A German warship has also been waiting for the highest instructions from Berlin recently. If the instructions come down in the next few days, the German warship will cross the Taiwan Strait again after 2022. Obviously, the Germans have been "fishing in troubled waters" recently.

Behind these superficial articles, there are actually undercurrents. The reason behind this is that the United States is worried that mainland China will use the "salami slicing" strategy to encircle Taiwan.

Because after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022, mainland China has actually stopped "accepting" the so-called "median line of the strait." Of course, mainland China has never recognized the "median line of the strait," but it just "accepted" it before.

It can be seen that in the past two years, mainland China has completely broken through the "median line of the strait".In other words, the intensity, breadth and depth of patrol enforcement in mainland China have been improved to several levels compared to before.

All of these combined can probably explain the background of the secret visit of two senior Taiwanese officials to Washington, as well as the recent series of moves by the United States and Germany in the Taiwan Strait.

Therefore, everyone can pay close attention to these trends. If there is more news in the future, I will also be the first to deconstruct and analyze it for you.

02

Next, let’s talk about the situation in the Middle East.

The situation in the Middle East has recently reversed, not in a good direction, but in a bad direction.

Last week, several countries held a meeting of intelligence chiefs in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Hamas and Israel also maintained indirect communication. The United States is quite optimistic about this.

Biden directly stated: "Israel and Hamas have accepted our proposition." Then US Secretary of State Blinken started his ninth visit to Israel. After talking with Netanyahu, he also stated that Israel accepted the US idea.

But in fact, these are all illusions and fabrications, and Israel does not fully agree with the US's claims.

The United States's proposition is nothing more than a ceasefire, or a ceasefire divided into two stages.On the surface, this seems to be no problem, but the key issue is that Israel has two conditions:

First, a ceasefire can only be achieved by eradicating Hamas, so Israel’s position has not changed fundamentally.

Although I don't know the inside story, I boldly guess that Blinken was fooled when Netanyahu met with him, and Blinken directly stated that Israel accepted the US's proposition.

Netanyahu has a hard-line group behind him, and he obviously knows that if he agrees to a ceasefire, he will step down immediately. Therefore, it is impossible for Netanyahu to cease fire before Hamas is eradicated.

After Blinken left, everyone realized that Netanyahu’s real dilemma and position had not changed.

Second, to take over a humanitarian corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.

Hamas naturally disagrees with this. They demand that the United States open the corridor and have international forces take over. However, Israel also refuses to compromise, believing that even if there is a short ceasefire period, Israeli troops need to move freely in and out to maintain Israel's control and presence in the humanitarian corridor between the Gaza Strip and the border area with Egypt.

So, to some extent, the US proposal has been overturned and is actually meaningless.

Under these circumstances, if Iran does not intervene, the Middle East intelligence agencies' summit meeting in Cairo today or tomorrow will not be successful. Therefore, we have received news in the past two days that the United States has begun secret contacts with Iran.

It should be noted that the secret contacts between the United States and Iran are at most secret contacts between intelligence personnel, not secret contacts between the intelligence authorities of both sides, because neither side dares to do so, so they can only communicate in a semi-public manner.

To this end, Qatar may send its prime minister to Iran within the next two days to try to persuade the Iranian side. To be honest, anyone with a discerning eye knows that there are people behind Israel and Hamas, so as long as Iran and the United States do not reach an agreement, the problem will not be solved.

As we all know, Israeli intelligence forces killed Hamas Politburo leader Haniyeh in Tehran, the Iranian capital, on July 31. Now, more than three weeks have passed, and the counterattack by Iran and Hezbollah that people have been expecting has not yet happened.

I have emphasized before that Iran's counterattack is actually the worst of the worst options, and even if it is to counterattack, it must be before the end of October or even early November, which will completely disrupt Harris's campaign rhythm.

Whether it is Hamas, Israel, or other parties, they actually do not want to see the current situation, and Iran does not want this situation to continue.Behind this, disrupting the US election may be the fundamental purpose。

It can be seen that at the recently concluded Democratic National Convention in the United States, Harris hardly mentioned the Middle East war in her speech, because the situation in the Middle East is a difficult problem that she needs to avoid now, and even Trump has been avoiding this issue.

The best outcome for Harris is to successfully end the Israeli-Palestinian war before the election, which will greatly enhance her diplomatic prestige. But this is impossible because Israel will not listen to her advice, and Iran is actually behind this.

Why do you say that?

I have emphasized before that the reason why Iran is unwilling or afraid to launch an attack on Israel during this period is because it knows that it cannot win. Launching a war at this time is equivalent to the demise of the regime, so Iran cannot fight Israel head-on. For Iran, the best option is to find a way out.

What is this step? It is to say that if Israel and Hamas can reach an agreement, Iran will not start a war. This is why the US Central Intelligence Agency, Egypt, Qatar and other countries are so-called middlemen in the past few days.

But at the end of the coordination, it was discovered that the ultimate obstacle to the peace talks lies in Israel, while the greater obstacle behind Hamas lies in Iran.So after a few days of coordination, the United States suddenly realized that Iran’s non-intervention was the key to solving the problem.

Hamas indirectly participated in the discussions on the sidelines of the meeting held in Doha last weekend. Given the current situation, Iran is likely to participate remotely in the Cairo meeting this week, which is also the main reason why the Qatari Prime Minister will visit Iran in the coming days.

Honestly, the chances of a deal between Israel and Hamas being reached this weekend are very slim. But we can watch the excitement this weekend and pay attention to the extent of Iran's involvement in this secret diplomatic negotiation, which is the real thing to watch.

Theoretically speaking, if Iran does not intervene, there is a high probability that Israel and Kazakhstan will not reach an agreement, but Iran's intervention does not mean that an agreement will definitely be reached. This process is bound to have many twists and turns, so there will be a lot of good shows to watch later.

Today we mainly talked about two things. First, the situation in the Taiwan Strait, which is our internal affair. Therefore, we must pay close attention to it in the next few days, especially during the US presidential election, when Americans are busy with internal affairs and basically ignore China and Taiwan Strait issues.

Of course, it must be pointed out that the China and Taiwan Strait issues will not fade out of the United States' vision forever. They will only become more and more tense. As the election day approaches, we must pay close attention.

Second, regarding the situation in the Middle East, we must not be optimistic and think that victory is just around the corner. It will probably take a long time to adjust in the future.